Ontario 2018 election

[ON Progressive]

How acurate traditionally are these polls of early voting anyway?

Polling subsamples are not particularly accurate in any country (and are not polls themselves and shouldn't be treated as such) and polling in Canada is amongst the least accurate in the industrialised world and has been for many decades. So to answer your question, what does two plus two equal?

Is Canadian polling actually that bad? They were pretty good in 2015.

[ON Progressive]

Don't revoke my subscription - somebody else leaked it!:

https://twitter.com/CoryJudson/status/1003376996926283777

Considering the known right wing skew of Mainstreet riding polls, this isn't terrible at all for the NDP.

[ON Progressive]

Mainstreet is going to release a number of riding polls in what should be highly competitive districts today:
Thunder Bay—Atikokan (update)

Hi all, I'm new here, and I'm just curious as to what the situation is for TB-A. This is my home riding. In the urban portion of the riding, the Liberals are leading the sign war by a 3-2 margin over the NDP, while the PCs are a distant third. Of the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, this one is more likely to flip NDP than TB-SN.

Welcome!

As for your riding, the poll has the smallest Liberal lead possible over the NDP, which I suppose isn't too far off the sign war you mention. However, riding polls aren't known to be reliable as has been mentioned in this thread a lot.

[ON Progressive]

Forum released a poll done entirely on Saturday

PC 38% (-1)
NDP 37% (+2)
Liberal 18% (-1)

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2850/june-2-2018/

[ON Progressive]

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

Interesting list. London North Centre, Sarnia-Lambton, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are certainly must gets for the NDP.

Elgin-Middlesex-London and Oxford are both surprises. If the NDP are winning either, they are well into majority territory in my view. I would know, I live in one of them.

[ON Progressive]

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

Interesting list. London North Centre, Sarnia-Lambton, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are certainly must gets for the NDP.

Elgin-Middlesex-London and Oxford are both surprises. If the NDP are winning either, they are well into majority territory in my view. I would know, I live in one of them.

The NDP would win 95 other seats, before winning Oxford (or EML for that matter).  Horwath's campaign is probably just using her presence in SW to get some PR across the region.  It also doesn't hurt the NDP's credibility to be seen as interested in rural seats.  They won't win, but it is useful.

I agree with you.

Just talking about my riding, Woodstock is still quite conservative (I calculated the Woodstock #s earlier, it went 41-28 PC vs. NDP in 2014), and as long as that stays true, there's no path for anyone else to win Oxford. The rural areas can give the PCs over 60% in many cases too.

Ingersoll is the closest thing to an NDP stronghold (the NDP won there 39-33 over the PCs in 2014), but it's too small to make up for Woodstock at all.

[ON Progressive]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Correction: PC candidate is a thug.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-police-probe-officer-and-pc-candidate-who-appeared-to-threaten-voter-over-debate-attendance-1.4690623

Yikes. Unfortunate it had to come out after a lot of people have already voted.

[ON Progressive]

Hatman, can you confirm or deny?

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/leaked-ontario-election-poll-shows-ontarians-ranked-dead-last/

Fake news!

The Beaverton publishing fake news? That would never happen!

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/NewsguyNick/status/1003728058954797056?s=20

Good turnout at advance polling this election.

[ON Progressive]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

Of course

[ON Progressive]

I highly doubt that A) the NDP would stoop to this level, but also B) be competent enough to pull something like this off

It would be sheer incompetence in itself to not time it a week earlier than this, honestly.

[ON Progressive]

I highly doubt that A) the NDP would stoop to this level, but also B) be competent enough to pull something like this off

It would be sheer incompetence in itself to not time it a week earlier than this, honestly.

Most people haven't voted yet, many haven't made up their minds yet. If it were a week ago in this day in age with people having such short attention spans, it may've  become old news by now.

Good point. I believe there ARE significantly more undecideds than normal at this time of the campaign.

[ON Progressive]

The NDP would win 95 other seats, before winning Oxford (or EML for that matter).  Horwath's campaign is probably just using her presence in SW to get some PR across the region.  It also doesn't hurt the NDP's credibility to be seen as interested in rural seats.  They won't win, but it is useful.

I agree with you.

Just talking about my riding, Woodstock is still quite conservative (I calculated the Woodstock #s earlier, it went 41-28 PC vs. NDP in 2014), and as long as that stays true, there's no path for anyone else to win Oxford. The rural areas can give the PCs over 60% in many cases too.

Ingersoll is the closest thing to an NDP stronghold (the NDP won there 39-33 over the PCs in 2014), but it's too small to make up for Woodstock at all.

Though in a funny way, I *do* find a left-field NDP gain in Oxford (or EML) more plausible than it looks--more so than in a lot of hitherto Liberal 905-belt ridings.  And I suspect that the Woodstock strain of PC support is more of a "parked" one and likelier to swing NDPward than that in rural Oxford County.  (Blame a lot of that on the growing sleeper factor of the auto economy.)

Maybe 85 or even 75 other seats, rather than 95?

I do think you're right about it being parked in a sense. A lot of people here vote PC because of Ernie Hardeman being very personally popular. I think it would be competitive in an open seat in this type of environment, but not now.

[ON Progressive]

Final Mainstreet poll:

https://www.scribd.com/document/381043555/Mainstreet-Ontario-June5

PC 39.0%
NDP 34.3%
Lib 20.2%
Green 4.9%
Other 1.7%

LIB support went up from their May 27th poll ? And this poll is done on June 3-4 which is after Wynne's speech ..

That could also be a dead cat bounce.

[ON Progressive]

With that Mainstreet poll - hello Premier Ford (unless Renata Ford brings him down)!

[ON Progressive]

Finally...Ford finds efficiencies:

Doug Ford finds millions in efficiencies in brother’s widow’s inheritance
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/06/doug-ford-finds-millions-in-efficiencies-in-brothers-widows-inheritance/

Gotta love The Beaverton

[ON Progressive]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

We have to state, it is not the NDP who us unwilling, its the Liberals; Wynne is still aggressively targeting the NDP, with Fords attach lines, even more so then the they are attacking the PCs.

This is because it is better for the libs to see Ford win - as long as they still have something of a caucus to come back to. It allows the libs to rebuild and then argue in 2022 that the other two parties are unwanted extremes and the ruling party should return to the saddle - a successful argument from the past.

Do the OLP have anybody like Trudeau though to bring the party back to relevancy?

[ON Progressive]

I'm just glad I live in a riding where it's obvious what party would be the strongest one that isn't the PCs. Unfortunately, said riding is safely PC.

[ON Progressive]

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

If only this poll is underestimating the Liberals by 10 points and overestimating the PCs by 10 points and that 85% of those that say they're voting NDP actually vote Liberal.  Easily done!

Give me a break. LiUNA has an axe to grind with del Duca - they even use the poll "result" to highlight it. That poll is junk.  

Yeah, the LiUNA polls are absolutely trash.

[ON Progressive]

Why do they hate Del Duca?

LiUNA is a union that absolutely hates Schedule 14 of the Ontario budget (I don't know exactly what it does, I can't find much info from google), and Del Duca was the guy who introduced it to the budget.

[ON Progressive]

Opinion of this?

Niagara Falls being to the right of Haldimand-Norfolk is one titanic hot take.

[ON Progressive]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

[ON Progressive]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

[ON Progressive]

Reminder of how badly off the Mainstreet polls were in BC 2017 (thanks DL for digging these up):

Saanich North
BC Liberals 40% (they got 27%)
NDP           25% (they got 30%)
Green        35% (they got 42%)

Fraser Nicola
BC Liberals 54% (they got 42%)
NDP           26% (they got 38%)
Green        20% (they got 16%)

Delta North
BC Liberals 41% (they got 40%)
NDP           39% (they got 48%)
Green        20% (they got 11%)

Surrey-Fleetwood
BC Liberals 48% (they got 36%)
NDP           39% (they got 53%)
Green        13% (they got 11%)

These 4 Mainstreet riding polls overestimated the Liberals by 9.5%, underestimated the NDP by 10%, and overestimated the Greens by 2%.

[ON Progressive]

Hey could you post those numbers a third time Ontario Progressive?  I didn't see them.

I have no idea why that double posted.