UK local elections, 2 May 2019

[jaichind]

It seems both CON and LAB are deeply divided.  Wonder how this will work out tomorrow.

[jaichind]

So.... We are 2 hours away from poll closings... final predictions?
Mine are:
Con -371
Lab +342
LD +144
UKIP -132
GRN +17

Since the Brexit party is not running would not a lot of Brexit party supporters vote UKIP instead and save them from a meltdown ?

[jaichind]

Results so far does not look so good for LAB.  Perhaps all that talk of a CON wipeout triggered greater CON turnout and greater tactical voting by Brexit supporters for CON.  Of course it is very early.

[jaichind]

So far most of the results are from the North.  I suspect when Southern results comes in the CONs will get killed.

[jaichind]

Independents gained a lot.  I wonder how many of them are UKIP splinter parties or ex-UKIP members running to avoid the UKIP label but still de facto UKIP.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

It seems that all things equal when all the counting is done the the number of Councillors CON will have won would be roughly the same as the number of Councillors the LAB and LIB put together.  Quiet and accomplishment in its 9th year in power and after a catastrophic last few months.  I guess UKIP not running in a bunch of seats where they did run in 2015 must have helped. 

[jaichind]

It seems that all things equal when all the counting is done the the number of Councillors CON will have won would be roughly the same as the number of Councillors the LAB and LIB put together.  Quiet and accomplishment in its 9th year in power and after a catastrophic last few months.  I guess UKIP not running in a bunch of seats where they did run in 2015 must have helped.  

Yeah, that's not how this works.

The councils up for election yesterday are only a portion of the local governments in the UK. London, Scotland, Wales, and large swaths of mostly metropolitan England aren't voting today. Those places that are voting are disproportionately Tory leaning, i.e. rural, older, whiter, etc.

The situation is analogous to having an entire class of US Senate seats consist of 75% heavily GOP states (Oklahoma, Kansas, Idaho, etc.). The Tories only managing to win half of the races in the most favourable terrain they could hope for is, in reality, a dismal showing.

I see.  If these elections are on a 4 year cycle would not a better apples-to-apples comparison be 1991 when there was a long tenured CON government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_United_Kingdom_local_elections

There the LAB were clearly head of CON

So I would still argue these results look very good in 2019 for the CON in historical perspective 

[jaichind]

BBC implied national vote share

CON  28
LAB   28
LIB   19

[jaichind]

What is interesting about the Green surge is that I though the whole point of having Corbyn as leader of LAB is to stop LAB votes from going to parties like the Greens.   At least in this election that is not the case.