Applying the cube root rule for state houses (user search)
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  Applying the cube root rule for state houses (search mode)
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Author Topic: Applying the cube root rule for state houses  (Read 1339 times)
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Junior Chimp
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Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

« on: October 08, 2020, 10:47:45 AM »


Detailed Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/048df054-079c-46e0-ba98-cb19a0ddf3bd
Here's a quick draw of Oregon. Some observations off the bat - while the Portland Metro is a verifable cluster of districts, as expected, the Eugene and Salem areas also have numerous compact districts as well. With so many districts, partisanship is very well reflected by this map - Democratic strength is based in Portland, Eugene, Salem, Corvallis, and numerous other liberal enclaves, while Republicans dominate the East, South and scattered rurals in the Northwest of the state.

Utilizing 2016 numbers, there are 54 Solidly Republican Districts, 73 Solidly Democratic Districts, and 28 competitive districts - with a majority consisting of 79 seats, the ORGOP is thus within somewhat striking distance of a legislative majority. However, the tipping-point districts are still significantly Democratic (note: 2018 Gov results used):

92nd District (Wilsonville+exurbs): Clinton +7.8, Buehler +7.9, PVI R+0.9
57th District (79th Republican Seat) (Majority-Minority East Salem burbs): Clinton +7.7, Brown +9.9, PVI D+4
98th District (79th Democratic Seat) (Downtown Oregon City, Gladstone, Clackamas Heights): Clinton +7.1, Brown +1.6, PVI D+2.71
4th District (Pacific City, Lincoln City, Depoe Bay - North Central Coast): Clinton +7.1, Brown +9.9, PVI D+5

While the 79th Republican Seat is 4 points right of the state, it's still a significiant lift for the ORGOP, though their performance could be amplified by taking ancestrally Republican districts (e.g. Wilsonville, West Linn, Sherwood) in the southern Portland burbs.
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