IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[Hoosier_Nick]

Toss-Up

Despite voting for Trump pretty handily, Indiana is a fairly elastic state. If the anti-Trump sentiment is strong enough, it's certainly within margin for Democrats to win. Also, Indiana Republicans tend to be pretty gaffe-prone.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Unsure if it has been mentioned here, but Donnelly's CM was announced some time ago to be Peter Hanscom, fresh off of two losses as Evan Bayh's CM and Hillary Clinton's Indiana State Director for the primary.

Hanscom sucks. Why would Donnelly pick him?

[Hoosier_Nick]

Well, he has four and a half hours...

[Hoosier_Nick]

https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/887372526036422657

[Hoosier_Nick]

Neither seems particularly good. Messer is going to be killed for living in D.C. and being part of the leadership. Rokita would probably be a little better, but is more gaffe-prone. Either way, Donnelly seems to be the slight favorite so far. Still a toss-up.

[Hoosier_Nick]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

[Hoosier_Nick]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/08/rep-todd-rokita-embraces-trump-he-launches-indiana-senate-bid/550882001/

Rokita is in! Great news for Donnelly. The more messy the GOP primary is, the better.

[Hoosier_Nick]

I'm considering moving this from "Toss-up" to "Tilt-D". I think Donnelly has done a great job projecting his moderate positions to the state, while also staying vigilant in the resistance. Also the R-Primary being a complete sh*tshow helps.

Also: http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/former-aides-say-rep-todd-rokita-yelled-staff-docked-pay/624152001/

lol

[Hoosier_Nick]

Another interesting factoid from that poll was Trump's approval rating here is 41/45. Definitely going down. Curious if that will pull down Messer/Rokita's numbers.

[Hoosier_Nick]

FWIW, Donnelly has a primary challenger. His challenger, a veteran named Martin Del Rio, only has a website and a facebook page I believe. However, I haven't found any policy positions, and coincidentally the two things he vaguely mentioned (veteran issues and being bi-partisan) are two of Donnelly's strongest issues. Seems weird.

Overall, I'm not worried at all. He would be lucky to get 15%.

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=6831246 (This is his personal page with his announcement video, he hasn't done anything on his campaign page yet)

http://www.martindelrio.com/

[Hoosier_Nick]

Forgot to post this:

https://www.wthr.com/article/indiana-senate-candidate-mike-braun-fired-white-nationalist-aide

[Hoosier_Nick]

I completely missed that End Citizens United endorsed Donnelly...

https://twitter.com/StopBigMoney/status/949411801233543169

[Hoosier_Nick]

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.

[Hoosier_Nick]

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.

Good result. Won’t matter much but it should be a good signal to GOP donors that Messer is their man.

He's the man to the Indiana establishment. I'm not sure that his support from them will translate to the GOP grassroots. Have they learned their lesson? Maybe. But I'm skeptical.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Q4 numbers:

Braun: 2 million (!!!)
Donnelly: 1.2 million
Messer: 430 thousand (!!!)
Rokita: hasn't posted his numbers yet...?

(source) https://howeypolitics.com/

Okay, I'm not sure how Rokita hasn't posted his numbers yet since we're past the filling deadline, but whatever. I know Braun is independently wealthy, but wow. 2 million? And Messer could only muster up 430 thousand? This is a three-way horserace. Definitely one to watch.

[Hoosier_Nick]

https://twitter.com/indgop/status/952253852484554752

Messer wins the strawpoll at the GOP meeting. About the result I'd expect looking at the Messer/Rokita/Braun ratio.

Is this the straw poll he was accused of rigging?

Yes.

Also, Rokita comes up with 450 thousand, essentially nothing (lol.)

[Hoosier_Nick]

For all the talk, Donnelly passes the filling day without a primary challenge. Will be Donnelly, Braun, Messer and Rokita on the May 8th primary ballots.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Isn't trump below water in Indiana? running as Pro-trump might hurt him more than its going to help him

Not in the primaries

[Hoosier_Nick]

I wonder how Hamilton County will behave this cycle. Obama got 38.5% in Hamilton County in 2008, and Donnelly got at least 40% in '12, +8% more than Obama who only 32%.

Wouldn't surprise me if Donnelly exceeded his '12 performance in the county.

I don't think Donnelly can win Hamilton, but it wouldn't surprise me if the county was within 10 points. It is diversifying, has very high education rates and is becoming more young, three great trends for Democrats. I've done some canvassing there and there are a *lot* of former Republicans willing to vote for Donnelly or another Democrat. Again, I know it's anecdotal, but I genuinely think that Donnelly could be competitive there.

And I'm very undecided on who would be the strongest candidate. If I had to say, I'd probably go with Braun>Messer>Rokita, though marginally. Although Braun has the residency issues and won't be as good of a fundraiser, he doesn't have the massive residency issue of Messer and isn't ridiculously gaffe-prone like Rokita. And as previously noted, Rokita would be a really weak candidate in areas like Hamilton County.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Mike Braun's got this. I'm almost at the point where I'd give him like a 75% chance of winning, even though that's the outcome I want least (the other two would be much, much easier to beat.)

[Hoosier_Nick]

Still thinking that Braun pulls this off. It'll probably be something like the previous prediction said, about 40-35-25. I really, really hope Rokita wins.

[Hoosier_Nick]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Wow. Check out Mexico Joe's latest ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=29&v=VmD8fYF4Rzg

It's clear he's down bigly to Mike Braun if he's putting up overtly pro-Trump ads.

Cringe, Manchin has done something similar too, oh well, they have free pass cards to do anything to win, so do what's necessary ma bois.

What a poorly done ad. The part in the middle where Donnelly flimsily talks into the camera from driving the RV is just LOL

You can tell that was filmed in Indiana too because he kept hitting potholes every couple of seconds

LOL