Well, I know plenty of centrist Jews who are mild social conservatives who could have been R targets but they won't flip because of the religious right, or let's be more direct about it, Christian conservatives.
There is some primordial wariness from the "Christian Nation" talks
This, it's much deeper then a lot of other factors people consider. Like it is true many Jews are secular and well-educated but there's also many Jews who have had the same path over several generations of assimilating into whiteness that other white ethnic groups did yet are still outsiders in a way that Irish or Italians haven't been in a long time. Even a generation ago when the suburbs were far more Republican then they are now Jews were still far more likely to vote Democrat then their WASP or Catholic neighbors. I think that culturally because most Jewish families still have stories of having experienced anti-Semitism in recent history there's just an innate hostility to a political party that from the McCarthy era to the War on Terror to Trumpism has by and large been the home to nationalistic and racial hysteria because the feeling is always there that even if Jews aren't the target they sure as hell sound like people who have made Jews the target in history and that if things get worse that could easily change.
