Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Sestak]

Katie Hobbs up 6115 votes with latest Maricopa dump (0.28%). AZ-SOS was/is arguably the most important state row office race in the country this year.

I know that SoS succeeds if the governor leaves office, but is there any reason why it’s so important this year? Was Ducey thinking of appointing himself to McCain’s old seat?

Well, part of it is that Ducey probably would have been the NRSC’s strongest recruit in 2020 whether or not he was an incumbent. This then robs the NRSC of their top guy and leaves them with pretty much Ward or McSally rehash.

The other part of it...well...

[Sestak]

Love leads by only 400 with 18 SL precincts out to only 3 in Utah? Will probably be close then, right?

[Sestak]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Congressional map will be different, probably somewhat more favorable to Dems than the current one.

How? Going to be interesting how Whitmer (MI) and Evers (WI) deal with Redistricting after the 2020 Census. They can't do much unless they both have a Democratic State Legislature after 2020.

MI passed independent redistricting this year. The legislature and governor both are out of the picture.

Evers, on the other hand, can still veto Republican gerrymanders and force fairer maps.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1065107459222749184

[Sestak]

CA-21 to Lean D on 538.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1065384348206211072

[Sestak]

We get Kern numbers today, right?