OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Badger]

The son of Kucinich's LG pick, Tara Samples, arrested for threatening to kill cops.

http://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/son-of-akron-city-councilwoman-tara-samples-in-custody-after-threatening-police/95-536461584

On the one hand I'm sympathetic, not at all of the kid's statements, but the fact he has a long history of mental illness which is 99% likely behind this screed (the family arranged for his temporary hospitalization immediately afterwards).

On the other hand, I looked up the campaign's response and thought it equal parts telling and contemptible. They rightly explained the son's history of mental illness and recent psychotic break from being off meds. However, what they didn't bother saying one word about was basic support for police officers and the work they do. This wasn't just an oversight, but I suspect at heart it reflects a basic and obnoxious "f$%k the police" mentality which goes beyond issues of over-incarceration and police abuse.

In short, we regret our LG candidate's son threatened violence against (any) cop, but we're not going to spend a word contradicting his exhortations cause, well, f$%k the police, amarite peoples? 

[Badger]

It's not like I have deeply specific ideas on the likelihood of most flips. I mostly go for a binary flippable/unflippable look at things.

I really hope they don't go for suburbs either. We can't win on Romney-Clinton alone, especially not in Ohio! And considering how open to Democrats a lot of Trump country is, it would be stupid to not focus on those seats. I also, on a personal level, don't want a party that's centered around bougie suburbanites.

I'm watching Jeremy Blake's campaign with great interest. What do you think of district 2? Definitely unlikely, but it's also in central Ohio and Lane Winters intrigues me regardless of his chances.

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

So to actually win a bare one seat majority, Dems have to sweep everything you rank as Lean R or better (for Dems), plus at least 3 (currently) Likely R races. Correct?

Sounds daunting. Are there any Democratic seats you're concerned about defending on top of this?

[BuckeyeNut]

It's not like I have deeply specific ideas on the likelihood of most flips. I mostly go for a binary flippable/unflippable look at things.

I really hope they don't go for suburbs either. We can't win on Romney-Clinton alone, especially not in Ohio! And considering how open to Democrats a lot of Trump country is, it would be stupid to not focus on those seats. I also, on a personal level, don't want a party that's centered around bougie suburbanites.

I'm watching Jeremy Blake's campaign with great interest. What do you think of district 2? Definitely unlikely, but it's also in central Ohio and Lane Winters intrigues me regardless of his chances.

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

So to actually win a bare one seat majority, Dems have to sweep everything you rank as Lean R or better (for Dems), plus at least 3 (currently) Likely R races. Correct?

Sounds daunting. Are there any Democratic seats you're concerned about defending on top of this?

A bare majority would be 50 D, 49 R and 17 pickups with no losses. So your math is a little off (unless mine is). Democrats would have to win all seats that are Lean R or better plus just one Likely R seat. Still, as you say, daunting. There's a very small likelihood we pull it off. That said, I think we can make good gains this year regardless, and I much prefer going for a full court press than aggressively targeting the most winnable seats. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

And no, I'm not really worried about defending any seats this go-round. There are 7 Democrats in Trump-won seats, and the only one that's now open is Kathleen Clyde's, which I'm definitely not worried about this cycle. If Jack Cera was term-limited, I would be quite worried about the 96th, and I guess I am slightly worried about it even now, but after having gone unchallenged last cycle, Cera started the year off with $40,000 on hand, which is a great advantage to start with.

[Ohioguy29]

Update: Speaker Rosenberger is resigning immediately rather than at the end of the month as originally planned.

[BuckeyeNut]

DeWine is trying to slap Taylor with a C&D over an ad she’s running where she claims DeWine voted with Hillary and Obama in the Senate and that he supports drivers licenses for illegal immigrants.

[KingSweden]

As Colin Firth says in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”...

“It has become so very ugly.”

[Ohioguy29]

DeWine is trying to slap Taylor with a C&D over an ad she’s running where she claims DeWine voted with Hillary and Obama in the Senate and that he supports drivers licenses for illegal immigrants.

This seems like it'll just backfire on him and bring more attention to his voting record in the Senate. But ok, Mike, carry on!

[BuckeyeNut]

DeWine is trying to slap Taylor with a C&D over an ad she’s running where she claims DeWine voted with Hillary and Obama in the Senate and that he supports drivers licenses for illegal immigrants.

This seems like it'll just backfire on him and bring more attention to his voting record in the Senate. But ok, Mike, carry on!

The intersting thing is that DeWine’s polling average is now just a point shy of 50%. I don’t think Taylor can win since we’re only three weeks out, but we could get an Ives redux.

[Ohioguy29]

Excerpt from Ohio Matter podcast on Cliff Rosenberger resignation:

"In the legislative races, where you think this would have the biggest impact, the Democrats I talked to are saying, "look we had a plan going in for how to win, and we're not gonna...it's too late to change our plan now." "I wouldn't be surprised if this is not a huge factor in a lot of these legislative races...I don't see the Democrats, at least on the legislative level, using this as much."

Why? Seriously, how stupid can you be?

[BuckeyeNut]

Excerpt from Ohio Matter podcast on Cliff Rosenberger resignation:

"In the legislative races, where you think this would have the biggest impact, the Democrats I talked to are saying, "look we had a plan going in for how to win, and we're not gonna...it's too late to change our plan now." "I wouldn't be surprised if this is not a huge factor in a lot of these legislative races...I don't see the Democrats, at least on the legislative level, using this as much."

Why? Seriously, how stupid can you be?

What I got out of that was OHDC won't be changing where they're targetting. Not necessarily how. And it would be stupid to divulge that sort of strategy to a reporter.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Cleveland Plain Dealer has endorsed Kucinich in the Democratic primary, which is troubling. "But Buckeye, newspaper endorsements don't matter," you say. I nominally agree, but the Plain Dealer is a good reflection of the mood in Northeast Ohio, Kucinich remains personally popular in the Cleveland media market, and said media market is a large chunk of the Democratic primary. The Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown media market is actually 54% of the Democratic primary, and while Cordray should eat into Akron and Schiavoni into Youngstown, this is troubling.

[Ohioguy29]

This sounds juicy. If only there was video.

[henster]

Kucinichmentum.

[Ohioguy29]

Kucinichmentum.

Just doesn't work as well as Joementum.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, I think Joe will easily get into the teens come E-day, maybe the 20's. We'll see what happens.

[Chief Justice Keef]

The Cleveland Plain Dealer has endorsed Kucinich in the Democratic primary, which is troubling. "But Buckeye, newspaper endorsements don't matter," you say. I nominally agree, but the Plain Dealer is a good reflection of the mood in Northeast Ohio, Kucinich remains personally popular in the Cleveland media market, and said media market is a large chunk of the Democratic primary. The Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown media market is actually 54% of the Democratic primary, and while Cordray should eat into Akron and Schiavoni into Youngstown, this is troubling.

Probably speaks more to Cordray's weaknesses as a candidate than Kucinich's strengths.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Cleveland Plain Dealer has endorsed Kucinich in the Democratic primary, which is troubling. "But Buckeye, newspaper endorsements don't matter," you say. I nominally agree, but the Plain Dealer is a good reflection of the mood in Northeast Ohio, Kucinich remains personally popular in the Cleveland media market, and said media market is a large chunk of the Democratic primary. The Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown media market is actually 54% of the Democratic primary, and while Cordray should eat into Akron and Schiavoni into Youngstown, this is troubling.

Probably speaks more to Cordray's weaknesses as a candidate than Kucinich's strengths.

I think that was true of their endorsement in the 2016 Senate race when they went for Sittenfeld over Strickland, but not this time.

[VPH]

The thought of "Governor Kucinich" frightens me. I don't think he can win the general, but in a potential wave year you never know.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The thought of "Governor Kucinich" frightens me. I don't think he can win the general, but in a potential wave year you never know.

Why? I agree that he's a goner in a GE which is why I can't lend my coveted endorsement to him, but Governor Kucinich would be absolutely awesome, eccentricities and all.

He’s a pro-Trump hack and Russia shill who is notoriously unprincipled and bankrupted the city of Cleveland as Mayor.  In fact, he was such a disaster as mayor that he lost re-election to a Republican.  Even then, that was like a Democrat screwing up so badly that Republican gets elected Mayor of San Francisco today.

[BuckeyeNut]

The thought of "Governor Kucinich" frightens me. I don't think he can win the general, but in a potential wave year you never know.

Why? I agree that he's a goner in a GE which is why I can't lend my coveted endorsement to him, but Governor Kucinich would be absolutely awesome, eccentricities and all.

He’s a pro-Trump hack and Russia shill who is notoriously unprincipled and bankrupted the city of Cleveland as Mayor.  In fact, he was such a disaster as mayor that he lost re-election to a Republican.  Even then, that was like a Democrat screwing up so badly that Republican gets elected Mayor of San Francisco today.

Counterpoint: Everyone thought he did the right thing in hindsight in refusing to sell Cleveland Municipal Light.

If Kucinich could win the nomination, I'd be fine with it.I agree with most of his policies. The scary thing is that he would be toxic to most of the state and ruin the very good chances of both Dettelbach and Space.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The thought of "Governor Kucinich" frightens me. I don't think he can win the general, but in a potential wave year you never know.

Why? I agree that he's a goner in a GE which is why I can't lend my coveted endorsement to him, but Governor Kucinich would be absolutely awesome, eccentricities and all.

He’s a pro-Trump hack and Russia shill who is notoriously unprincipled and bankrupted the city of Cleveland as Mayor.  In fact, he was such a disaster as mayor that he lost re-election to a Republican.  Even then, that was like a Democrat screwing up so badly that Republican gets elected Mayor of San Francisco today.

Counterpoint: Everyone thought he did the right thing in hindsight in refusing to sell Cleveland Municipal Light.

If Kucinich could win the nomination, I'd be fine with it.I agree with most of his policies. The scary thing is that he would be toxic to most of the state and ruin the very good chances of both Dettelbach and Space.

I’d probably vote for Husted over him.  That should tell you all you need to know

[BuckeyeNut]

The thought of "Governor Kucinich" frightens me. I don't think he can win the general, but in a potential wave year you never know.

Why? I agree that he's a goner in a GE which is why I can't lend my coveted endorsement to him, but Governor Kucinich would be absolutely awesome, eccentricities and all.

He’s a pro-Trump hack and Russia shill who is notoriously unprincipled and bankrupted the city of Cleveland as Mayor.  In fact, he was such a disaster as mayor that he lost re-election to a Republican.  Even then, that was like a Democrat screwing up so badly that Republican gets elected Mayor of San Francisco today.

Counterpoint: Everyone thought he did the right thing in hindsight in refusing to sell Cleveland Municipal Light.

If Kucinich could win the nomination, I'd be fine with it.I agree with most of his policies. The scary thing is that he would be toxic to most of the state and ruin the very good chances of both Dettelbach and Space.

I’d probably vote for Husted over him.  That should tell you all you need to know

That you're not enough of a hack?

Also Husted's not leading any ticket, last I checked.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The thought of "Governor Kucinich" frightens me. I don't think he can win the general, but in a potential wave year you never know.

Why? I agree that he's a goner in a GE which is why I can't lend my coveted endorsement to him, but Governor Kucinich would be absolutely awesome, eccentricities and all.

He’s a pro-Trump hack and Russia shill who is notoriously unprincipled and bankrupted the city of Cleveland as Mayor.  In fact, he was such a disaster as mayor that he lost re-election to a Republican.  Even then, that was like a Democrat screwing up so badly that Republican gets elected Mayor of San Francisco today.

Counterpoint: Everyone thought he did the right thing in hindsight in refusing to sell Cleveland Municipal Light.

If Kucinich could win the nomination, I'd be fine with it.I agree with most of his policies. The scary thing is that he would be toxic to most of the state and ruin the very good chances of both Dettelbach and Space.

I’d probably vote for Husted over him.  That should tell you all you need to know

That you're not enough of a hack?

Also Husted's not leading any ticket, last I checked.

I know, my point is that Kucinich is *really* unpopular outside the white part of Cleveland, even among Democrats.

[BuckeyeNut]

He’s definitely toxic.

ION: It’s an older article now, but this is why I am somewhat concerned with going all-in on the Clinton-Romney suburban districts.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[VPH]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html