The question becomes: will these educated Whites return to the Republican party after Trump loses, or does Hillary begin a demographic realignment?
If Trump is a sore loser and becomes the mouthpiece of the Republican party after his loss, I can see a lot of these voters fleeing the Republican party for good.
Trump is accelerating a trend that was already happening: non-college educated whites moving toward the Republicans while college educated whites moving toward the Democrats.
Romney won college graduates by 4% last election.
Romney was the dead cat bounce, though. The long term trend has been there since at least 1992.
Bush 2004 won college graduates by 16%, Bush 2000 won them by 11%, Dole lost them by just 2%, and Bush 1992 lost by them by just 3%.
Where is the long-term trend that has been there since at least 1992?
There isn't one, Skill is just COMPLETELY convinced Democrats will become this party of elites and multiculturalism while everyone in the GOP will resemble the Duck Dynasty guys. Of course, this won't happen at all.
Exactly what else do you possibly think is happening this year? And the nationalist GOP coalition still includes a substantial minority of people with college degrees and above average incomes. The real chasm is with postgrads. Basically, the 2015-2020's US Dem coalition = current UK Remain coalition, adjusted for a more diverse country.
THIS YEAR. You are willingly ignoring the DECIDEDLY progressive turn the Democrats took this year, specifically on economics. They aren't moving center, much less right, they're pushing hard left. Hillary is quite literally attacking Trump on being "secretly for free trade" and highlighting his history of outsourcing jobs, dude; watch her ads. While she could be painting him strictly as an alt-right nut job (which, of course, she's also doing), she's running ads portraying him as an out-of-touch billionaire who will give tax cuts to his rich buddies, much as Romney was portrayed, and Clinton is facing ZERO resistance from her party on this course of action. There is simply no appetite in the Democratic Party for this globalist, upper crust party you're imagining; in fact, Sanders' candidacy and Clinton's taking up of most of his ideas, shows a flat-out rejection by Democrats themselves of such a realignment. Trump's own VP is pro-TPP, and Republicans in Congress will continue to push for free trade, while most Democrats will continue to vote against it; it would take a MASSIVE flip flop of unprecedented proportions for the elected members of Congress to vote how you're envisioning on that issue. Donald Trump is about to be destroyed, and his ideology (which, again, simply isn't coherent and his supporters' ideologies are even less so) is going to fly right out the window with his exit.
George Romney didn't become a Democrat after 1964. Neither did Nelson Rockefeller or William Scranton. They protested the nominee, didn't vote for him and returned right back to the fold once he was demolished in November. More Democrats voted for Sanders than Republicans did for Trump, friend; and Hillary's decidedly progressive campaign which shows absolutely zero signs of trying to appeal to Republicans on economic issues, has Democrats united behind her, while Trump is facing rejection by multiple Republicans. These Republicans aren't voting for Hillary because they agree with her or because they're flirting with becoming Democrats, and it's frankly amazing some of you can't see this: they quite literally don't think Donald Trump in the White House is something we can allow to happen!
