538 model & poll tracker thread

[Crumpets]

I pulled together this map from 538's numbers. In states where they don't have their own average, I've just used the average of polls since the race since the candidates have been known. In states with no polling, I've just used the 2016 numbers.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I pulled together this map from 538's numbers. In states where they don't have their own average, I've just used the average of polls since the race since the candidates have been known. In states with no polling, I've just used the 2016 numbers.

Biden appears to be quickly closing the gap in Iowa and I'd see him having a chance to win that before either Ohio or Georgia in 2020. This site https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/ appears to be showing this too. Can't you see the state that gave Obama his first big win in 2008 primaries and ultimately won in both general elections supporting his VP in 2020?

[Non Swing Voter]

Honestly, this is going as well as could be expected thus far for those of us on the democratic side who quietly supported Biden.  We thought he'd make a strong competitor because:

a) he'd hold the gains Democrats have been making in once purple states like Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and even make him competitive in Texas.

b) he'd get strong support with black voters which would put North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia in play, while making Virginia completely out of reach for Trump.

c) he'd get strong suburban support and decent white moderate support, which would make him a strong candidate in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine while making him even somewhat competitive in states like Iowa and Ohio.

He's pretty much checked off all the boxes just chilling in his basement while Trump is forced to play defense.  Every now and then there are even these bizarre outlier polls showing him close in states like Missouri and Arkansas.  This is exactly why Trump didn't want to run against Biden.  Biden pretty much has 230 electoral votes locked up and a solid 10-15 states to target.

[SnowLabrador]

Any word on when the full model will come out? Or will we only have these polling averages to go by until the actual election?

[Panhandle Progressive]

He's pretty much checked off all the boxes just chilling in his basement while Trump is forced to play defense.

This is a good point. Furthermore, it was pretty easy in 2016 for Trump to run as a challenger, aka outsider. Not so easy to do this when you've been in office for nearly a full term. Especially with racial tensions, coronavirus, economic/job concerns. Biden has the luxury to be the challenger this time. For each mistake Trump makes, he can just continue to say, I would have handled that differently. Then Trump keeps failing further behind, while Biden should be able to win by default, being the quiet, sane candidate.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Any word on when the full model will come out? Or will we only have these polling averages to go by until the actual election?

I remember reading recently that the 538 model launched at the end of June in 2016. Should be no later than that, this time. In other words, imminent.

[Non Swing Voter]

He's pretty much checked off all the boxes just chilling in his basement while Trump is forced to play defense.

This is a good point. Furthermore, it was pretty easy in 2016 for Trump to run as a challenger, aka outsider. Not so easy to do this when you've been in office for nearly a full term. Especially with racial tensions, coronavirus, economic/job concerns. Biden has the luxury to be the challenger this time. For each mistake Trump makes, he can just continue to say, I would have handled that differently. Then Trump keeps failing further behind, while Biden should be able to win by default, being the quiet, sane candidate.

Exactly.  I think this is a large part of why Trump's so far behind.  With Clinton vs. Trump, Trump was a big unknown so to the extent it was a referendum on two hated candidates it was more a referendum on Clinton's baggage and Trump was able to trick some middle of the road people.  Now after 4 years of this nonsense people have had enough and it's going to be a lot harder to undo that by pointing to Biden's (less existent) baggage.  Couple that in with the fact that Biden is a way less controversial candidate than a lot of others he could have chosen and Trump has a big problem.  I think what Biden needs to do now is pick a VP who will energize his base while not taking radical positions.  I am coming back to Kamala Harris being that candidate.  While she doesn't bring a particular state to the table, she will boost Biden among key demographics that will probably bring a lot of states like MI, PA, and maybe FL across the finish line.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

538 now has its first trendline up for Alabama:

Trump 55%
Biden 39.1%

[Crumpets]

Biden breaks double digits in his lead on 538. His current number (51.1%) is identical to Obama's raw vote share in 2012.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1276128058249039874

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I pulled together this map from 538's numbers. In states where they don't have their own average, I've just used the average of polls since the race since the candidates have been known. In states with no polling, I've just used the 2016 numbers.

This is my map, assuming the following:

Less than 3% lead = >40%
Less than 22% lead = >50%
Greater than 22% lead = >60%
States without a poll average get slotted in their 2016 order

They have Biden +0.3 in Iowa, so Iowa goes >40% Biden.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden has now pulled ahead in IA. I believe that's the first state to flip within the average since the tracker was launched.

[The Mikado]

Monday will be the 4th anniversary of the launch of the 2016 model.

I do think that it'll take longer this time. If I had to take a guess: they do like their numerically significant stunts, so maybe July 23rd, AKA the "100 days until the election" point.

[LimoLiberal]

Biden's lead in the aggregate fell to "just" 8.9 points today, Trump's best number since June 18th.

[Bomster]

Biden's lead in the aggregate fell to "just" 8.9 points today, Trump's best number since June 18th.

Should we DOOM yet?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Based on his tweets about trying to model vote suppression, I get the feeling Nate has a completed model already, but that it came out looking way too confident in a Biden win for his liking, so he's trying to figure out how to include some additional doodads to make Trump look less hopeless.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monday will be the 4th anniversary of the launch of the 2016 model.

I do think that it'll take longer this time. If I had to take a guess: they do like their numerically significant stunts, so maybe July 23rd, AKA the "100 days until the election" point.

Isn't 100 days before the election July 26th?

[SaneDemocrat]

Based on his tweets about trying to model vote suppression, I get the feeling Nate has a completed model already, but that it came out looking way too confident in a Biden win for his liking, so he's trying to figure out how to include some additional doodads to make Trump look less hopeless.

YES YES we forget people are human and dont like to be wrong

[Vern]

AZ is now polling to the right of NC

[ProgressiveModerate]

When your best number is being behind by 9 points nationally, that's not a good sign

[wbrocks67]

538 is being super lazy this year. There's no excuse for the model not being out yet when the primaries have been done for months and even the 2016 version came out sooner.

[ProgressiveModerate]

538 is being super lazy this year. There's no excuse for the model not being out yet when the primaries have been done for months and even the 2016 version came out sooner.

I'm guessing they're either waiting for the conventions of 100 days before the election. Making the model itself really isnt that hard. I'm in 9th grade, and by myself I was able to create a full presidential and senate forecasts model in under a week that weights different factors like polling, incumbency, fundraising, and so much more. Having a bunch people who are actually getting paid working to create a model shouldn't take very long at face value. I think the COVID stuff they were working on caused them to start the model late, and now they just want to find a good date to release that isn't completely random. The model is probably already done if I'm being honest. Also, as someone else mentioned, I think that Nate thinks that Trump's chances will be perceived as too low by the general public. There are other little kinks that can be annoying to deal with; getting Doug Jones below a 10% chance using only statistics, and getting Bullock above a 35% chance of winning in MT at the same time is quite difficult. He's probably also being picky about those problems, and trying to adjust the model in a fair way to fix those sorts of issues.

[emailking]

538 is being super lazy this year. There's no excuse for the model not being out yet when the primaries have been done for months and even the 2016 version came out sooner.

The site is free. They're not under an obligation to make a model.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Florida numbers are really stunning mostly because the state always reverts to being close even in a wave year, but Biden is a really really good fit for the state in a lot of ways. 

I'm starting to think Biden should heavily prioritize Michigan and Florida together over PA/WI/AZ (though he should invest heavily in those as well).  That gets him to 277 votes meaning he could lose 1 or 2 of the smaller states Hillary won.  He just has to hold onto Minnesota, which seems fairly likely. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

This link sends you to a blank page that is not an error page. Literally any other simillar link send you to an error page. It's the same address they used for the 2016 forecast, just swap 2016 with 2020. Keep an eye on the page, because we might be able to get an early glimpse of the forecasts in the works before it will be released on the 27th of July, but just a wild guess. Also, why would they make this page if they weren't going to release a forecast? This page didn't work on June 27th when I last tried it so clearly something is up. Also, the page has a reserved server too, which might indicate they'll be some simulator, or some function where a lot of information will need to be sent back and forth. Also, through inspecting the webpage I found:



Not sure what all the numbers mean; maybe those long numbers that start with 15 and 16 indicate Trump's chance are around 16%?