Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

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The Libertarian is at 40% in Vermillion county. I'm guessing that was a mistake.

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Braun up 4 in exit poll.

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538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning.

Where did you find that,


I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts

Their live results are here.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/

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You can call it for Brown.

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Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey

Racist rural WV hicks strike again?

Manchin is up around 7 in the exit poll.

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Are there different exit poll results for the same races this year? Manchin is looking good in the CNN exit poll.

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Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey

Racist rural WV hicks strike again?

Manchin is up around 7 in the exit poll.

Where is this being reported?

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/west-virginia

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538 has
Manchin 95%
Nelson 75%
Donnelly 18%

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Donnelly down to 12% odds on 538.

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Manchin up 14 points with 5% in.

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CNN exit polls
FL Gov: Tie
FL Sen: Nelson+1

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CNN exit polls have
MO Sen: McCaskill +2
NJ Sen: Menendez +16

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Here is a link to FOX and AP exit polls, which are different from the other exit polls CNN and MSNBC are using

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

It seems that for most races they have the Democrats doing better than CNN, but they do have Hawley up 3.

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Where the hell is muh needle

I was just about to ask the same. Well, we have 538's live numbers at least.

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538 now has GOP Senate at 96.6%

Actually it's 97.4%.

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Democrats suck at winning elections.

The party of "we suck less" will just blame Russia again to avoid having to make any changes to not suck so badly.

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Right, so the Florida Democratic Party needs to do some explaining.

The Florida Democratic party are grand masters at narrow losses. They don't have to explain anything.

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AZ-Sen is tied on CNN, but Sinema+5 on Fox.

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Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election.

Has anyone called FL?

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CNN exit poll has Cramer +9.

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Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election.

Has anyone called FL?

No, Gillim is within two points of being eliminated.

I know both FL races are looking bad, but they can't call them yet.

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I think there might be a "Shy Republican Effect."

You can probably thank antifa for that.

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What on earth is happening Democrats might win Kansas, South Dakota, VA-02, and OK-5 but loose FL and IN.

The same world where VT, MA, and MD vote Republican. There's less partisanship in governor races.

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Fox News now called the House for the Dems as well.

Way too early for that.

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538 live seems to not be updating much, so we're really missing the needle now.

Here's a number to watch. Democrats are currently down 0.8% in the House popular vote. That's without NY, CA, OR, or WA.

That's bonkers given the GCB numbers we've been hearing all cycle. Any idea what the benchmark is without those states?

Of course the Democrats will win the popular vote, but that might not be enough to win the House. They won the popular vote in 2012.