Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Vespucci]

538's KY-06 estimate just flipped from 91-9 Republican to 91-9 Dem.  So I don't think you can trust that at all.

I think it’s too sensitive

They also don't use county-based data.

[Vespucci]

NBC calls FL-6 for Waltz.

[Vespucci]

Shalala, Diaz-Balart, Riggleman win.

[Vespucci]

Guys there are like 10 calls

[Vespucci]

Menendez wins, sorry Admiral President

[Vespucci]

Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so.

Texas uber alles.

Really, it's more "good D night but bad in FL" than anything.

[Vespucci]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020.

I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point.

You may not be too far off base here.  I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems.

FL is still a Presidential swing state, the Dems just can’t turn anyone out in midterms.

[Vespucci]

Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate.  Not likely, but still possible!

Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ.

If they somehow win MS it would be 0, but that’s not happening.