Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 210094 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: November 06, 2018, 12:36:18 PM »
It is 6:30pm here in Austria right now and time for me to go to sleep.

Then I will get up at 1am when the first polls close and stay up the whole night.

Anyway, todays CO ballot return update:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 12:42:22 PM »
Quote from: bilaps on November 06, 2018, 12:38:49 PM
it's at midnight when first polls close if you're in Austria. 6pm eastern.

Only portions of IN and KY close at midnight.

Waking up at 1am is better, because some precincts are already counted then.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 12:46:18 PM »
Good Night !
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 07:19:41 PM »
Good Night (1:20 am) !

IN doesn‘t look good right now, but let‘s wait ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 07:26:19 PM »
The early GA exit poll numbers for Abrams among white women are disgusting ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 07:32:35 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:30:30 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 07:26:19 PM
The early GA exit poll numbers for Abrams among white women are disgusting ...

In what context?

The #s are even lower for her than among white men ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 07:34:03 PM »
NYT still has the paywall ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 07:43:48 PM »
Danny O‘Connor ahead 60–40 in OH–12.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 07:54:15 PM »
KY–06: McGrath (D) +0.3 with 70% in.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 08:02:45 PM »
TN Exit Poll:

55—45 Blackburn.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL !
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 08:11:39 PM »
TN looks bad.

Really bad ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 08:20:58 PM »
I think I don‘t like this election ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2018, 08:48:56 PM »
This is so depressing that I go back to sleep again ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2018, 12:41:38 PM »
Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ...

At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema.

BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2018, 01:00:13 PM »
Quote from: Senator Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 12:59:08 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 12:56:11 PM
CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%

Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ.

Good for Tester.

But AZ takes probably a week or 2 to count all their votes.

And FL could also take a while.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2018, 01:08:06 PM »
Quote from: Senator Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 01:05:59 PM
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 01:00:46 PM
Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate.  Not likely, but still possible!

Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ.

I guess he's talking about this scenario + picking up MS-special in the runoff.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2018, 01:59:31 PM »
Funny thing:

In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats.

Now, the Senate margin in all 35 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ...

Dems ahead by 46 million votes to 33 million votes for the Republicans in the Senate.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2018, 02:25:51 PM »
Nelson might actually win this ...

Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2018, 02:59:50 PM »
Hmm, FL only has some 10.000 to 20.000 provisional ballots.

Compared with smaller OH, which has more than 100.000 left to count ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2018, 03:20:06 PM »
Trump and FLorida R's are highly annoying ...

It's pretty clear that what's left to count are absentee ballots that were postmarked by election day and returned after election day, military ballots from overseas which come in now and provisional ballots.

Those are all legal and correct ballots.

Nobody in Broward or elsewhere is opening the lockbox with hidden Al Gore votes from 2000 to turn them into Nelson/Gillum votes ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2018, 03:41:47 PM »
Signatures are not matching all the time. In every election.

About 1% of all postal ballots are thrown out in every election, in the US, in Austria because of that reason. Or because some voters don't sign the postal ballot at all.

Someone please tell Trump that this is no fraud or corruption. It's simply lazy or dumb voters.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2018, 04:30:13 PM »
Quote from: Coldstream on November 09, 2018, 04:25:55 PM
How long is it likely to be before the outstanding California races get called?

CA has about 4.5 million outstanding ballots left to count until mid-December, when the results are certified.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2018, 07:27:33 AM »
Caution for the turnout map:

Many of these numbers are not yet final.

CA for example has more than 4.6 million uncounted ballots.

The final turnout will only be known in early January, when the Census Bureau releases the Mid-2018 state population and 18+ estimates and the states their final "total ballots cast" reports.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2018, 02:26:31 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 01:57:01 PM
Is there any schedule about what new results we are going to get today?

None.

There‘s a holiday in the US today.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2018, 12:50:38 PM »
Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black.
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