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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: May 22, 2012, 11:41:24 PM »
This is already a likely voter poll. Didn't know that SurveyUSA would start with that so early.

For a likely voter poll, the sample is very good for Obama. And the overall topline is also what I would expect. NC is going to be tied for the next months.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2012, 05:52:48 AM »
Let's compare this:

76-18 among Democrats

with this:



...

Obama's probably underestimated by about 4% right now in NC, because at least 10% more Democrats will back him until November (40 x 0.1)
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