How did Trump come so close to winning in 2020 given the macro circumstances?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I think the polarization argument carries the most water. Sure, things like handling the pandemic and the economy or whatever make a difference at the margins (which could indeed change the outcome of an election!), but fundamentally every election from 2000 until now has been a 50-50 election, with the only exception being 2008.

And 2008 is a great example of this polarization, because Obama's victory that year was underwhelming when compared to the 20th century. People are so intensely dug into their respective camps and highly motivated by hatred/fear of the other side. Huge numbers of people hated and still do hate both Biden and Trump, and yet voted for them anyways in 2020 and will do so again in 2024.

And the United States is not the only country experiencing this same dynamic, and this is not the first time that we have experienced this intense polarization.