If no states used commissions, what maps would we see?

[David Hume]

IA, HI: no change.

AZ: probably 7-2 R gerrymander if they are aggressive enough, like this one https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::0f550399-0127-40d4-a444-f251da43a128

CA: more aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that CASC feels comfortable, at least safe 47-5.

CO: aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that COSC feels comfortable, at least safe 6-2

WA: aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that WASC feels comfortable, at least safe 8-2

MT: safe 0-2.

IA: Unpack IA-04 to make 3 safe R and 1 toss-up.

VA: Dems may pass a gerrymander before Youngkin took office, but it gets struck down by the R VASC, which draws the current map.

NJ: Dems pass a gerrymander, but not too extreme, since the NJSC is moderate R. Probably similar to the current one.

MI: the 4-3 D MISC draws the map, not sure how aggressive they are, probably similar to the current one. But if R flip the governorship and SC, they can draw a very aggressive gerrymander.