2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

I rarely agree with hofoid and Bagel, but they're right here. This is the same expectations lowering we saw in a bunch of the special elections this cycle so that they could spin just in case they lost.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

I rarely agree with hofoid and Bagel, but they're right here. This is the same expectations lowering we saw in a bunch of the special elections this cycle so that they could spin just in case they lost.

If there is anything I have learned this year, it is to completely ignore any and all Republican internal polling. It is worse than no polling at all.

[Ronnie]

ABC / WaPo (10/29 - 11/1)
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 44%

[IceSpear]

ABC / WaPo (10/29 - 11/1)
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 44%

Mixed bag here. D+7 is pretty good, but it's a noticable decline from their previous D+11 poll. Also, you've gotta love the hedging in their headline:

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Brave.

[Zaybay]

Its D+8 guys
https://twitter.com/abc/status/1058931957999001600?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL @ all the oblivious Republicans ignoring their potential downfall in the comments.

[Yank2133]

lol, the WAPO is short-changing us by a point.

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[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

lol, the WAPO is short-changing us by a point.

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They need their "Dems in disarray" headline.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Again the consistency of the CGB is amazing

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Again the consistency of the CGB is amazing

Yep, it's been D+8-9 for the past two weeks.

[Gass3268]

ABC / WaPo (10/29 - 11/1)
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 44%

Mixed bag here. D+7 is pretty good, but it's a noticable decline from their previous D+11 poll. Also, you've gotta love the hedging in their headline:

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Brave.

Republicans only gained a point from their prior poll. Most of the movement came from Democrats losing three. The other two points went to "Other" and "Neither."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It would be nice if it were somewhat higher than D+8. Hopefully we will get some other GCB live phone polls showing it higher. D+8 is too close for any real comfort.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It would be nice if it were somewhat higher than D+8. Hopefully we will get some other GCB live phone polls showing it higher. D+8 is too close for any real comfort.

No it isn’t. JC guys I get gerrymandering I’d bad but 8 is nowhere near the danger zone

[IceSpear]

It would be nice if it were somewhat higher than D+8. Hopefully we will get some other GCB live phone polls showing it higher. D+8 is too close for any real comfort.

Dems will easily take the House at D+8. I think hoping they get it into double digits is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

[Yank2133]

lol, the WAPO is short-changing us by a point.

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They need their "Dems in disarray" headline.

It is amazing how biased towards Republicans the general media is. If it was R+8, they would be writing the political obituary for house Democrats and Nancy Pelosi. I am serious, switch the positions. No one would be talking about the 15-20% chance Democrats have at holding the house.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It would be nice if it were somewhat higher than D+8. Hopefully we will get some other GCB live phone polls showing it higher. D+8 is too close for any real comfort.

No it isn’t. JC guys I get gerrymandering I’d bad but 8 is nowhere near the danger zone

It is well within the danger zone where with a little bit of polling error going the wrong way, Rs could hold the House.

Also, even with D+8, a number of Senate races have potential to break to the Rs. It would be better if that did not happen.

One good thing in this poll, however, is it seems like Trump approval is only 40%. That will probably influence undecideds to some degree.

[IceSpear]

lol, the WAPO is short-changing us by a point.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They need their "Dems in disarray" headline.

It is amazing how biased towards Republicans the general media is. If it was R+8, they would be writing the political obituary for house Democrats and Nancy Pelosi. I am serious, switch the positions. No one would be talking about the 15-20% chance Democrats have at holding the house.

They still have PTSD from 2016. They've been overrating Republicans in general all cycle due to overcompensation/overcorrection.

[junior chįmp]

According to da poll....Drumpfs approval is the lowest going into a midterm since Truman 1946 when Dems failed to gain a single Senate seat and Reps gained 55 seats in the House.

[Virginiá]

ABC/WaPo seems to have a pretty good track record, but their last 2010 and 2014 GCB polls go in different directions, and I don't think they did one close to the end in 2016 or 2012. So you could + / - 2 points to this and feel good about that being the end result. Unless this is the year they completely blow it, anyway.

Only issue is that -/+ 2 points is a huge deal and would produce a large range of pickups or losses.

[Crumpets]

Again the consistency of the CGB is amazing

Yep, it's been D+8-9 for the past two weeks.

On the other hand, this could just be herding like we saw in 2014, and might lose some late-breaking shifts as last-minute voters decide.

[IceSpear]

It would be nice if it were somewhat higher than D+8. Hopefully we will get some other GCB live phone polls showing it higher. D+8 is too close for any real comfort.

No it isn’t. JC guys I get gerrymandering I’d bad but 8 is nowhere near the danger zone

It is well within the danger zone where with a little bit of polling error going the wrong way, Rs could hold the House.

Also, even with D+8, a number of Senate races have potential to break to the Rs. It would be better if that did not happen.

One good thing in this poll, however, is it seems like Trump approval is only 40%. That will probably influence undecideds to some degree.

It's 40% among adults, which is irrelevant. The RV numbers seem to be converging with the generic ballot number, which is unsurprising.

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[Yank2133]

lol, the WAPO is short-changing us by a point.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They need their "Dems in disarray" headline.

It is amazing how biased towards Republicans the general media is. If it was R+8, they would be writing the political obituary for house Democrats and Nancy Pelosi. I am serious, switch the positions. No one would be talking about the 15-20% chance Democrats have at holding the house.

They still have PTSD from 2016. They've been overrating Republicans in general all cycle due to overcompensation/overcorrection.

Yeah, I don't mind them talking about R's chances at holding the house (although it would be nice if people talked about a potential polling error in favor of Dems...but whatever). But they have taking things overboard. Like moving NJ from safe D to toss up or Harry Enten pretending Dean Heller is favored in NV.

Like come on, be serious.

[Gass3268]

I'm not sure if it's 8 or 7. ABC is reporting 8, Washington Post is saying 7.

538 entered it at 8, but adjusted it down to 6.