UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Pericles]

On the bright side, polling is error-prone in the UK. Unfortunately, those errors are usually in favor of the Conservatives.

[Pericles]

I'm not sure whether to support Corbyn's Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Corbyn is too extreme and hasn't earned my support, while the LibDems are actually pro-EU while I bet Corbyn voted for Leave. However, I am not sure yet and will watch this campaign closely.

[Pericles]

I think the LibDems will make a surge in the campaign as the pro-EU party while UKIP will fade. The Tories will get a big majority. I'm not sure if Labour will see its support increase or decrease between now and the election but I think a slight increase. May will win but slightly smaller than currently predicted.

[Pericles]

Using Electoral Calculus
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 364+34 39.9%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 192-37 26.5%
Nicola Strugeon-SNP: 58+4 5.2%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 13+4 14.3%
Paul Nuttall-UKIP: 0_ 9.2%
650 seats
326 for majority

[Pericles]

Blair and his ilk inflicted decades of damage on Labour. Corbyn hasn't had adequate time to rebuild, especially with ongoing corporate sabotage.

Oh yes the guy who won 3 elections in a landslide destroyed Labour whole the leader who is 20 points behind is trying to rebuild it.

[Pericles]

I love how the left is blaming Blair for their problems despite the fact that he is the only Labour prime minster to serve for two full terms and is the only labour leader to win an election since 1974

Indeed, if Labour had stuck with Blairite ideology, they likely would have won in 2015.

[Pericles]

Using Electoral Calculus, I made 3 separate scenarios.
Polls underestimate Labour vote
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 357+27 44.8%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 215-14 32.3%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 51-3 4.4%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 6-3 10.6%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 4.9%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 2.3%
650 seats
326 for majority

Polls underestimate Tory vote
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 433+103 50.0%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 145-84 25.0%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 41-13 4.0%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 10+1 12.0%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 3.7%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 0-1 3.0%
650 seats
326 for majority

Polls are right
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 395+65 47.3%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 175-54 29.2%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 51-3 4.2%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 6-3 10.6%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 1_ 2.8%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 3.9%
650 seats
326 for majority

Note that this is nationwide, not seat by seat, so that is why Lucas loses in some scenarios, she may be doing better in her seat. Which outcome do you think is most plausible? The polls have been untrustworthy, especially UK polling(even in 2010 they were off by quite a bit, and have been wrong more often than thought in years when one party wins in a landslide by getting the scale of the landslide wrong). When the Tories were way ahead, in 1983 and 2010, they put them ahead by too much, in 1983 final polls put the Tories around 47%. In 1992 and 2015, they overestimated Labour and underestimated the turnout of more conservative demographics with Brexit. What are your thoughts?

[Pericles]

The nuclear deterrent works because anybody who could threaten the UK would know that they would suffer nuclear retaliation in return. It is a threat and deterrent, the main purpose of having a deterrent is to ensure that it would never have to be used.

[Pericles]

If this momentum stays with Labour until June 8th they will win.

That presumes the polls are right-given their recent record and the UK's history of polling errors, plus Labour's poor performance in the local elections, they are probably underestimating the Tories. I expect May to win a comfortable increased majority.

[Pericles]

It's really illuminating that Corbyn is mainly campaigning in Labour-held seats. While Labour is playing up their chances of victory in public,  they really think they are likely to lose, the question is how badly they lose.