I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?
538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.
lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.
Not necessarily, even by their math. Right now, he's at 89% of his delegate goal according to 538. After today, he'll likely be at 91-92%, unless something surprising happens in Hawaii. Granted, he still has the Superdelegate problem, but that could change.
Using a percentage really downplays the extent he is in the hole. According to 538, after tonight he "should" be down about 50 delegates if he was on track. Instead, he'll be down by 230+.
That is true. Using a percentage can be deceiving if you're not keeping in mind the ever-decreasing number of delegates left. But the fact remains that he's making up some ground tonight. It likely won't be enough, but Clinton certainly isn't at a >99% chance of winning at this point.
Personally, I never had her at >99%. My highest ranking for her was like a 95%, which is like the combined probabilities of her having serious health problems, her being indicted, some other major scandal, or Sanders somehow pulling off a miracle.
And that's where the race still is, 'Clinton wins unless something huge happens'. The Washington result doesn't significantly change anything because unfortunately for Sanders, there are no more big caucus states left. There's just Wyoming and North Dakota, which if he wins them both by 60 points will net him like 25 delegates. He still needs 200 more delegates, the same hole he was in after Super Tuesday, and he can't rely on caucuses to close the gap.
So where does he make up the delegate gap?
The midest? Clinton has won most midwestern primaries, the best Sanders has done is a 2 point victory. Winning by 2 points in PA, IN, and WI isn't going to be enough.
New England? CT and RI are more like Massachusetts than Vermont, and winning them doesn't get you much either.
The Northeast? Maryland, D.C., Delware, New Jersey all have large African American populations, and should be among Clinton's best remaining contests. New York is Clinton's home state, even if Sanders somehow pulls off a win there, he needs to do better.
The territories? Don't make me laugh.
That's why all of these 'Sanders' path to victory!' maps have him winning California by like 30 points. Even though Arizona and Nevada would suggest that California is
at least competitive.