$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Badger]

They are going to botch this too aren't they?

Don't get your hopes up. I wouldn't be surprised if McConnell and/or Ryan threaten to kick people off committees if they don't vote for this.

That would require them to be competent. Last tax reform in 1986 took a year and a half to pass and was done in a bipartisan manner, but these idiots think they can get it done by Christmas.

Well that's because it actually was tax reform. This is just ordinary tax shifting like w did

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Don't like the implications on the deficit probably getting bigger but.....

do like the lower class tax cuts I would benefit from?

Guess I'm thinking more like the average voter on that 2nd one

What lower class tax cuts?  Even the middle class tax cuts in this proposal are puny in comparison to the largess for the upper class.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It'll fail. I'm positive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It'll fail. I'm positive.

In the current form, yes.  But I suspect they'll manage to pass a modified bill.

[Blue3]

I'm a progressive Democrat... and I'm actually fine with this bill.

It will increase the deficit, but not by that much (and get rid of the talking point the GOP cares more about the deficit).

Don't like the repeal of the Johnson Amendment, but maybe it will lead to taxing blatantly-partisan churches in a few years.

It's actually not bad at all.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Don't like the implications on the deficit probably getting bigger but.....

do like the lower class tax cuts I would benefit from?

Guess I'm thinking more like the average voter on that 2nd one

What lower class tax cuts?  Even the middle class tax cuts in this proposal are puny in comparison to the largess for the upper class.

Are you kidding me


If your taxable income is in between 38k-90k your tax rate will drop from 25% all the way down to 12% , and the rich do not get a tax cut(people making a million or more tax rate will still be 39.6%)

[riceowl]

Don't like the implications on the deficit probably getting bigger but.....

do like the lower class tax cuts I would benefit from?

Guess I'm thinking more like the average voter on that 2nd one

What lower class tax cuts? Even the middle class tax cuts in this proposal are puny in comparison to the largess for the upper class.

Are you kidding me


If your taxable income is in between 38k-90k your tax rate will drop from 25% all the way down to 12% , and the rich do not get a tax cut(people making a million or more tax rate will still be 39.6%)

*if you're married, which no one on this forum will ever be*

It's actually really pissing me off how people only discuss married tax filer numbers on the shows and etc.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Don't like the implications on the deficit probably getting bigger but.....

do like the lower class tax cuts I would benefit from?

Guess I'm thinking more like the average voter on that 2nd one

What lower class tax cuts?  Even the middle class tax cuts in this proposal are puny in comparison to the largess for the upper class.

Are you kidding me


If your taxable income is in between 38k-90k your tax rate will drop from 25% all the way down to 12% , and the rich do not get a tax cut(people making a million or more tax rate will still be 39.6%)

You're forgetting, perhaps purposefully, the elimination of the estate tax and, and the cut to 25% or less in taxes on pass through income such as that Trump gets from his business.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Don't like the implications on the deficit probably getting bigger but.....

do like the lower class tax cuts I would benefit from?

Guess I'm thinking more like the average voter on that 2nd one

What lower class tax cuts?  Even the middle class tax cuts in this proposal are puny in comparison to the largess for the upper class.

Are you kidding me


If your taxable income is in between 38k-90k your tax rate will drop from 25% all the way down to 12% , and the rich do not get a tax cut(people making a million or more tax rate will still be 39.6%)

You're forgetting, perhaps purposefully, the elimination of the estate tax and, and the cut to 25% or less in taxes on pass through income such as that Trump gets from his business.

Why should small businesses pay taxes at the income level, that makes no sense. We need more small businesses not less.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

While I have concerns about some of the details, I must say they did exceed my expectations in many areas.


There are some improvements I would like to see, including an expanded EITC and Graham's minimum wage proposal. I would like to see some stronger barriers to the pass-through loophole and provisions to get Hedge Funds up to at least the 20% corporate rate.

It is clear to me that they really focused on two priorities.

Getting the Corporate rate way down to bring us well into a competitive range and put an end to the corporate inversions. They also went towards a territorial system and even if imperfect, the reforms on the corporate tax side are worth it, even if the rates go up slightly to like say 25% under a future Dem President.

They also went to great lengths to focus the cut towards the middle class with the dropping of many people down to that 12% and the creation of a de-facto 0% rate that encompasses those who were at the previous 10% rate, via the Standard Deduction increase.

I didn't appreciate the Standard Deduction as a tool but it was a great way to help those across a wide swath of incomes.

From a pure political perspective, looking at the income tax rates and the deductions, Republicans are starting to realize they are not a Party of the rich anymore, at least not as broadly defined as it is used to be in that sense. It is big leap for them to accept not cutting the rate for millionaires and billionaires in that sense. I also find it hilarious that they face backlash from big states over SALT and decide to keep it just for property. And which two big states, do not have an income tax but high property taxes? Texas and Florida!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why should small businesses pay taxes at the income level, that makes no sense. We need more small businesses not less.

Since when is The Trump Organization a small business!?

[Gass3268]

Republican tax plan unpopular

32% Support (+5)
50% Oppose (+6)

60% Say it mainly favors the wealthy
17% Say it favors all equaly
13% Say it favors the middle class
2% Say it favors the poor

[jaichind]

I did a bunch of scenario analysis of 2018 tax year for a family of 3 at different income levels and different locations.  As expected the impact of the proposed tax changes differ greatly depending on lactation.

The impact people in the 30K-100K AGI range is pretty much the same in all regions which is a slight drop in taxes owed.

In high local tax tax areas (in sequence SF, NYC, NYC suburb (Scarsdale which is me), MD (Montgomery County where I spent my high school years)) the 100K-200K range has this plan as a tax cut of $2K-$3K.  Beyond 200K it becomes a slight tax increase but dips to a slight tax cut around 500K due to the affect of removing AMT.  Beyond 500K this turns in a massive tax increase as income areas with the worst going to the highest local tax areas.   For an AGI of 1000K in SF this plan becomes a tax increase of 25K and for MD 15K with NYC and NYC suburbs in between.  For an AGI of 2000K in SF this plan becomes a tax increase of 71K and for MD 41K with NYC and NYC suburbs in between.

For low local tax areas (FL and AL) this is a tax cut throughout with one peak savings at around 125K AGI with savings of around 3K.  The tax cut dips and peaks as a % of income again at AGI of 1000K where in FL the tax savings are at around 37K and 19K in AL before dipping.   In AL by AGI of 2000K the tax cut is falling quickly to 13K due to losing the state and local tax deduction.  In FL the tax cut continues to grow even at AGI 2000K because there are no state taxes to deduct under the existing system and PEASE continues to eat away at the deduction under current tax law which has less impact under the proposed tax system.

So net net, if you are high income in Blue state areas you will get a big tax increase.  If you live in FL and have high income you will get a big tax cut.

Under this new plan, if your household has an AGI of 2000K and live in SF the total tax (state tax, local tax,real estate tax, federal tax, Obamacare tax) will be 54.33% of your total income and that not adding in FICA or sales tax.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I did a bunch of scenario analysis of 2018 tax year for a family of 3 at different income levels and different locations.  As expected the impact of the proposed tax changes differ greatly depending on lactation.

What does breastfeeding have to do with it?

More seriously, your analysis fails to take into account the tax breaks on pass-through income and how people will restructure their current revenue and expenses to take advantage of the changed tax code.

[jaichind]

I did a bunch of scenario analysis of 2018 tax year for a family of 3 at different income levels and different locations.  As expected the impact of the proposed tax changes differ greatly depending on lactation.

What does breastfeeding have to do with it?

More seriously, your analysis fails to take into account the tax breaks on pass-through income and how people will restructure their current revenue and expenses to take advantage of the changed tax code.

Ah. Sorry for typo.

Your feedback is true but I would argue that it will exaggerate the divergence between the different regions.  People with high incomes in metorpole (and high local taxes) areas tends to be employees and will not be able to take advantage of the lower rates of pass-through income.  The high income population in non-metropole (and ergo low local taxes) areas tend to be business owners who can restructure their income to take advantage of the this.   So the overall narrative is the same.  Small tax cuts for lower income population, wealth transfer from high income population in Blue states to high income population in Red states.

[jaichind]

It seems using chained CPI will be used right away instead of 2023.  This is a tax increase by proxy over time.   Something I support but it should be seen as a tax increase across the board.

[tallguy23]

Don't like the implications on the deficit probably getting bigger but.....

do like the lower class tax cuts I would benefit from?

Guess I'm thinking more like the average voter on that 2nd one

What lower class tax cuts?  Even the middle class tax cuts in this proposal are puny in comparison to the largess for the upper class.

Are you kidding me


If your taxable income is in between 38k-90k your tax rate will drop from 25% all the way down to 12% , and the rich do not get a tax cut(people making a million or more tax rate will still be 39.6%)

Only for married people. Single people are at the same rate.

I hate how the government punishes unmarried people. Stop trying to punish us for not putting a ring on it.

[Ban my account ffs!]

This bill is so f**king toxic and it is very clear the GOP is cynically going after the groups that didn't vote for them.  Lots of people will see a tax hike while corpoations and the super rich make out like bandits. 

This pile of bullsh**t needs to be killed with fire.

[Matty]

This bill is so f**king toxic and it is very clear the GOP is cynically going after the groups that didn't vote for them.  Lots of people will see a tax hike while corpoations and the super rich make out like bandits. 

This pile of bullsh**t needs to be killed with fire.

This is actually wrong, and maybe you should read the bill yourself and calculate how you come out before getting your piss so hot.

Even the NYT admitted in their winners and losers article that this bill will lower the tax bill of the vast majority of middle class families, while actually raising the tax bill of wealthier married couples with kids and who have large mortgages

Most Americans will be seeing their tax bill go down

[jaichind]

This bill is so f**king toxic and it is very clear the GOP is cynically going after the groups that didn't vote for them.  Lots of people will see a tax hike while corpoations and the super rich make out like bandits. 

This pile of bullsh**t needs to be killed with fire.

This is actually wrong, and maybe you should read the bill yourself and calculate how you come out before getting your piss so hot.

Even the NYT admitted in their winners and losers article that this bill will lower the tax bill of the vast majority of middle class families, while actually raising the tax bill of wealthier married couples with kids and who have large mortgages

Most Americans will be seeing their tax bill go down

He is somewhat right in the sense that this is, what I have characterized since the Spring, an anti-intelligentsia tax plan.  The high income population in metropole areas that are getting hit by this are knowledge intensive workers which mostly did not vote for Trump.  I am one of them was one of very few from that crowd that publicly voiced support for Trump in my social circles.  The high income population in non-metropole areas tends to be small business owners which as far as I can tell did mostly go Trump. 

Most of my friends and neighbors are getting killed under this plan but most of them voted Clinton anyway.  I actually come out barely ahead only due to some special circumstances but once you factor in the chain-CPI I am a small net loser over the next few years.  Still this plan makes sense as I think the federal government should not subsidize the high tax policies of Blue state governments.  If they want to raise taxes to fund single payer healthcare, go ahead, but not on the dine of Red State taxpayers.  I think what would make it better is if the mortgage and real estate tax deductions also were gone as well as the federal government should not show bias on how a state or local government choose to tax and fund itself. 

[Ban my account ffs!]

This bill is so f**king toxic and it is very clear the GOP is cynically going after the groups that didn't vote for them.  Lots of people will see a tax hike while corpoations and the super rich make out like bandits.  

This pile of bullsh**t needs to be killed with fire.

This is actually wrong, and maybe you should read the bill yourself and calculate how you come out before getting your piss so hot.

Even the NYT admitted in their winners and losers article that this bill will lower the tax bill of the vast majority of middle class families, while actually raising the tax bill of wealthier married couples with kids and who have large mortgages

Most Americans will be seeing their tax bill go down

It's a deficit ballooning giveaway to corporations and the tiny minority that owns them.  They are satisfying reconciliation by going after the petty rich that actually work for a living, graduate students, an increase in taxes for families with children after 5 years, a sizable tax increase for people that live in high tax states.  This just scratches the surface.  The tiny tax cut you might get is pathetic...yet somehow still enough to get your support...which was what they hoped for so they can lavish the super wealthy with gobs of money that they will probably send overseas.

[Ban my account ffs!]

This bill is so f**king toxic and it is very clear the GOP is cynically going after the groups that didn't vote for them.  Lots of people will see a tax hike while corpoations and the super rich make out like bandits. 

This pile of bullsh**t needs to be killed with fire.

This is actually wrong, and maybe you should read the bill yourself and calculate how you come out before getting your piss so hot.

Even the NYT admitted in their winners and losers article that this bill will lower the tax bill of the vast majority of middle class families, while actually raising the tax bill of wealthier married couples with kids and who have large mortgages

Most Americans will be seeing their tax bill go down

He is somewhat right in the sense that this is, what I have characterized since the Spring, an anti-intelligentsia tax plan.  The high income population in metropole areas that are getting hit by this are knowledge intensive workers which mostly did not vote for Trump.  I am one of them was one of very few from that crowd that publicly voiced support for Trump in my social circles.  The high income population in non-metropole areas tends to be small business owners which as far as I can tell did mostly go Trump. 

Most of my friends and neighbors are getting killed under this plan but most of them voted Clinton anyway.  I actually come out barely ahead only due to some special circumstances but once you factor in the chain-CPI I am a small net loser over the next few years.  Still this plan makes sense as I think the federal government should not subsidize the high tax policies of Blue state governments.  If they want to raise taxes to fund single payer healthcare, go ahead, but not on the dine of Red State taxpayers.  I think what would make it better is if the mortgage and real estate tax deductions also were gone as well as the federal government should not show bias on how a state or local government choose to tax and fund itself. 

I shouldn't have to remind you that those blue states are the ones that pay in more to the federal government.  The red states are actually subsidizing their low tax rates with our money.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My dad lives in Portland ,has an upper middle class job ,and this tax plan would reduce my dad's taxes .

[mvd10]

This bill is so f**king toxic and it is very clear the GOP is cynically going after the groups that didn't vote for them.  Lots of people will see a tax hike while corpoations and the super rich make out like bandits. 

This pile of bullsh**t needs to be killed with fire.

The GOP is going for lower tax rates, an higher standard deduction paid for by less loopholes (and higher deficits). That's pretty much the standard formula for tax reform. The only thing in the tax plan that I would describe as downright cynical is the endowment tax (and perhaps some of the measures for students). Repeal/limitation of the SALT deduction always was going to be part of a tax reform, it costs a huge amount of revenue so not touching it means you'd have to slash even more popular deductions/tax breaks (or you'd have to look at things like the VAT or the carbon tax).

I'm disappointed that they're not going further in limiting the corporate interest deduction. They could have used the revenue for further corporate tax cuts or deficit reduction.

[jaichind]

I shouldn't have to remind you that those blue states are the ones that pay in more to the federal government.  The red states are actually subsidizing their low tax rates with our money.

Of course.  But the polices that lead to such distribution were create and still supported by the Blue State Democratic lawmakers.  This what is great about this tax proposal.  If and when it passes then the Blue state voters would start to ask themselves "why am I paying more in taxes only to help Bubba and Billy Bob down there in Alabama..." and as a result pressure those Blue state Dem lawmakers to curb these wealth redistribution programs or even better just vote GOP.