future electoral map?

[12th Doctor]

Next election might look something like this:



This makes it a virtual tie, 223-221 to the GOP. I think it's gonna be along those lines, at least.

If Bayh gets nominated and faces say Owens...

Bayh will never get the nomination.  Remember, your party punishes non-hardliners.  It's going to be either Hillary or someother Left-winger.

[12th Doctor]

Richardson/Bayh vs. someone from a non-helpful region (i.e. TX/WY):



Richardson 352
Some Republican 186

Well, I can always hope.

Ummmmm... see this is the problem with your thinking, they aren't going to be up against "some Republican".  They are going to facing a real person who has a record of accomplishment and will probably be somewhat likeable.

[12th Doctor]

Richardson/Bayh vs. someone from a non-helpful region (i.e. TX/WY):



Richardson 352
Some Republican 186

Well, I can always hope.

Ummmmm... see this is the problem with your thinking, they aren't going to be up against "some Republican".  They are going to facing a real person who has a record of accomplishment and will probably be somewhat likeable.

Yes, which is why I mean to say that this is a baseline. The Republican would probably be able to flip a few states. This is, basically, what I think this ticket would have done vs. a Republican unknown who was as good, say, as Bush was in 2000.

"Flip a few states"

And Kerry was going to win in a landslide too, right?

[12th Doctor]

"in IL Chicago retains its ability to outvote the rest of the state but growing republican strength in the “burbs” mean the states is trending to the right and becoming ever more of a tossup."

Actually that is wrong, the Chicago suburbs are leaning more and more Democratic, in DuPage County one of the supposed GOP strongholds Bush only got 54% of the vote.  It used to be that it was unheard of for a GOP presidential candidate to get less than 60% of the vote in DuPage, the only times since 1952 that was not the case was in 1992 and 1996 (because of Perot no doubt) and 2000. The other collar counties which lean GOP were also in the low 50% range, Bush barely carried Lake and Will Counties. 

Actually, I doubt IL will change much.  If anything, yes it will swing slightly GOP.  The GOP will continue to gain votes in growth-heavy McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Boone, Kendall, Grundy, LaSalle, Will, and Kankakee, even a few in Lake (but overall Lake won't change much), while losing more and more votes in Cook and DuPage.  We'll also have to watch for Rockford, Peoria, Champaign and see how these toss-up counties change.  It all depends on growth.  Little growth is likely in democratic heavy E. St. Louis or Rock Island-Moline.  However, the GOP is gaining in democratic Madison Co., thanks to growth in the Metro East suburbs (Collinsville, Edwardsville, Glen Carbon, etc.)

Suburban growth does *not* always favor Republicans, my friend.

It does around here, pal.

Okay. It doesn't around Philly. That was my point.

Generally speaking, northeastern suburban growth favors Dems, while southern suburban growth favors Republicans.  The midwest is a mixed bag.