The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest

[Nym90]

Kerry 272, Bush 266.

Modified only to fix the URL.

[Nym90]

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?

Simple, really. We all know that's exactly what's going to happen. None of wants you to lose his title as Master Predictor.

It's not that it's an unrealistic projection, but most people who have Kerry winning Florida think that he will win Ohio as well; the conventional wisdom is that Bush is doing better in Florida than in Ohio.

The economy is much better in Florida than in Ohio; I think that's a large reason why people are assuming that. We'll see what happens; it should be a fun ride. I have plenty of highly caffinated beverages ready.