France 2012: the official thread

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Abroad I don't know, but in France it's clear for everybody now that 2002 was the widespread of the Left. Which is one way to assume its weakness too.

[Colbert]

Why I think the final will be MLP - Hollande

1-left, polls after polls, is again poorly upon 40% (after TEN years of impaired balance of UMP'rule)

2-consequently, the total of the non-left (personnaly, I don't trust there's something like "right" to exist) would be 56/58 %

3-the non-right have 3 candidates : bayrou, sarkozly, MLP

4-A middle ratio by 58 for the 3 give 19% for each one.

5- It can be reasonnable to think than bayrou will have a score inferior than the two others

6-In 2007, Sarko take all he can take from JMLP's voters.

7-The strong base of Sarko are the oldest people

8-Since 2007, demographically, 5 millions of them had died

9-Hollande, as Bayrou, as MLP, as Mélenchon can easily answer, for each proposal of Sarko : why did'nt had you made it before, cause UMP is on charge since ten years

10-If we admitt than Bayrou will have 12 % , that's 46/44% for MLP and Sarko

11-Consequently, a ratio of 22/23 % for each one.

12-In 2007, Sarko was full, with 31,18%. Le Pen (JM) was at 10.44. I doubt that Nihous and Villiers' voters (at least for the first round) want to vote for Sarkozy. So imagine that JMLP minimal base was 10.44+2.23+1.15 = 13.82

13-At least 8% of the 2007's sarko vote came from 2002' megret/JMLP vote.

14-Basically, Sarko may be now at 23.18, and MLP at 21.82

15-thus, the final will be extremely close for each one, and Hollande, with his (apparent) moderate speech, have no reasons to afraid right-wing voters and make them vote "utile" (vote UMP, so).

16-At those 15 points, I must add the crisis fact. Sarkozy's solutions are not very different to the Hollande's ones. So, a real economic choice would be between Hollande and MLP (could you imagine to be on fire for a Hollande-Sarko TV debate?

17-In conclusion, I think the polls are wrong (not in a falsifcation way but in a mistake way) and than the final will oppose Hollande to MLP.

bonus track 18^^ : Hollande will win easily, but the difficulty of the left would be to win the legislative elections (wich is the key for ruling, contrary to apparences)

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is no evidence suggesting that polls are underestimating Le Pen support. It is doubtful that people are ashamed of admitting their support for the FN as it was in the past, and even then pollster are still apllying some corrections. While nobody can say how this will end up, there's no reasons to assume polls are wrong.

[Colbert]

There is no evidence suggesting that polls are underestimating Le Pen support. It is doubtful that people are ashamed of admitting their support for the FN as it was in the past, and even then pollster are still apllying some corrections. While nobody can say how this will end up, there's no reasons to assume polls are wrong.

that's not the essential point of my tentative of analysis :tongue:

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is no evidence suggesting that polls are underestimating Le Pen support. It is doubtful that people are ashamed of admitting their support for the FN as it was in the past, and even then pollster are still apllying some corrections. While nobody can say how this will end up, there's no reasons to assume polls are wrong.

that's not the essential point of my tentative of analysis :tongue:

So you assume Le Pen will gain traction in the last stages of the campaign ?

[Colbert]

based on what I said on my previous post, yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Honestly, your previous post seemed to be full of dubious calculations and abstract reasonings, which, IMO, don't mean much.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #43 - 27 February 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   


      

Hollande   30,09
Sarkozy   25,65
Le Pen   17,09
Bayrou   12,14
Mélenchon   8,3
Joly   2,81
Villepin   1,71
(Morin)   0,07
Lepage   0,53
Dupont-Aignan   0,68
(Boutin)   0,07
(Nihous)   0,19
Arthaud   0,4
Poutou   0,27
(Chevènement)   0,01
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   56,91
Sarkozy   43,09

[Antonio the Sixth]

The trend is negative again, but there's no particular reason to assume it will continue. As Fabien put it in his blog, this is a conjunctural phenomenon linked to Sarko's "campaign effect" and to the withdrawal of several right-wing nobodies. Hopefully it will be short-lived.


BTW, glad to see Hollande finally taking a courageous stance on fiscal issues. Yes, we need a 75% marginal tax rate if we want to reduce deficits in a fair way. I really hope he won't backtrack as he's done on other proposals before, it would be totally absurd.

[Hash]

Ifop now has the runoff gap down to 55-45.

[RogueBeaver]

The runoff gap doesn't exceed 10 when the two major parties make the runoff, so no surprise there.

[You kip if you want to...]

Francois meeting with Miliband today in London, and not David Cameron. I like Hollande more and more every day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Francois meeting with Miliband today in London, and not David Cameron. I like Hollande more and more every day.

Actually, I think that it's Cameron who refused to meet him. Like Merkel and Chinese bigwigs before. I wonder if these people understand they'll probably have to deal with him for the next 5 years (or more).

Still, a neoliberal asshole not wanting to meet you is a quite positive thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually, I think that it's Cameron who refused to meet him

Yes, that would fit in with what we know of the man. Cameron, that is.

[You kip if you want to...]

Actually, I think that it's Cameron who refused to meet him

Yes, that would fit in with what we know of the man. Cameron, that is.

What? Now that's pathetic. Relations with Sarko are frosty enough never mind a PS president.

[Leftbehind]

Actually, in this video, Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

[You kip if you want to...]

Actually, in this video, Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

Ah, I see. I know Merkel's openly backing Sarko and i'm sure Rajoy and Dave are privately hoping. If anything, their support for Sarko would drive me further towards Hollande, if I was French.

[Iannis]

Actually, in this video, Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

Why should Hollande meet Cameron? He's not president, so, it's only a politician and is supposed to meet just his fellows of Labour party.
I'm comforted by the fact that 52% of Europeans is governed by who has signed the letter for a bigger european market and reforms for growth, basically Cameron, Monti, Rajoy.

[MaxQue]

Actually, in this video, Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

Why should Hollande meet Cameron? He's not president, so, it's only a politician and is supposed to meet just his fellows of Labour party.
I'm comforted by the fact that 52% of Europeans is governed by who has signed the letter for a bigger european market and reforms for growth, basically Cameron, Monti, Rajoy.

A wonderful panel.
A guy which has to rely on another party to have a majority, some guy who wasn't elected and lack legitimacy and a guy who got elected by refusing to say what he will do.

[Iannis]

Actually, in this video, Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

Why should Hollande meet Cameron? He's not president, so, it's only a politician and is supposed to meet just his fellows of Labour party.
I'm comforted by the fact that 52% of Europeans is governed by who has signed the letter for a bigger european market and reforms for growth, basically Cameron, Monti, Rajoy.

A wonderful panel.
A guy which has to rely on another party to have a majority, some guy who wasn't elected and lack legitimacy and a guy who got elected by refusing to say what he will do.

Using your verbal rhetoric every leader in the world has something to blame for. The fact is that any of these is perfectly legitimate, according to all the democratic Constitutions, probably it's better to look at the content of that letter and criticize that one, in case.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just been watching Francois in Lyon tonight. I remember how awful a candidate I thought he'd be, i'm glad i've been proved wrong!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just been watching Francois in Lyon tonight. I remember how awful a candidate I thought he'd be, i'm glad i've been proved wrong!

Ditto, same here.

[Leftbehind]

F my non-existent language skills.

[You kip if you want to...]

F my non-existent language skills.

Most convenient election ever. Need an A in French in June for Uni.

[You kip if you want to...]

Hollande pulls a Romney on this millionaires tax pledge:
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/breve/2012/03/01/75-d-imposition-hollande-etait-contre-il-y-a-un-an_1650847_1471069.html

He basically said such a high rate would be "confiscatory" and that the rich would just start using offshore accounts in January 2011.