Honest John

[America Needs R'hllor]

Glad to see this is back!

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New Hampshire Primary

January 8th, 2007

McCain and Clinton-Comeback Kids?
On a frigid January night, the people of New Hampshire took to the polls, voting for two frontrunners thought to have run into hard times. Beyond the obvious comeback narrative is the rise and fall of various dark horses.


Republican Primary
John McCain- 30%
Mitt Romney- 27%
Morry Taylor- 17%
Sam Brownback- 12%
Rudy Giuliani- 6%
Rick Santorum- 4%
Lincoln Chafee- 3%

Just as in 2000, Maverick McCain has done it again and prevailed in New Hampshire, based in part on his strength among GOP-leaning independents. As expected, socially conservative candidates (Brownback and Santorum) largely fell flat. McCain's victory and absorption of Giuliani's fading support are a slap in the face to Mitt Romney, who hails from neighboring Massachusetts. Romney did best with those voters most concerned with healthcare and the economy, while McCain dominated among those concerned with foreign policy and terror. McCain's campaign celebrated tonight as the first big step towards the nomination.

Tonight's surprise was Morry Taylor, who performed quite respectably and finished second to McCain in Coos County. Taylor won self-described antiwar Republicans by a healthy margin and did well among those whose approval of the Bush administration was lower and who had lower levels of education than average. This strange coalition continues to take shape, and because of his ability to self-fund, Taylor may be in the race for the long haul.



Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton- 33%
John Edwards- 25%
John Kitzhaber- 20%
Evan Bayh- 11%
Bill Richardson- 9%
Dennis Kucinich- 2%
Al Sharpton- 0%

Hillary Clinton's all-out strategy in New Hampshire paid dividends as she opened up a decent lead over her competitors. Clinton performed especially well among female voters and those in smaller cities and suburbs. This win will likely fuel momentum for her candidacy in coming primary contests, and her firey victory speech brought a degree of emotion to the trail pundits have said was lacking at first.

For John Edwards, New Hampshire represents a setback after his Iowa breakthrough. This humbling loss, which almost saw him fall into third place, serves as a reminder that Edwards is still not considered the frontrunner in this campaign. Edwards' strongest county, and only win, was Coos, an economically depressed mill-heavy area where his message of economic populism resonated. Surprisingly, John Kitzhaber broke through in progressive Grafton County, eking out a win over Clinton by 1.5% and over Edwards by 4%. Kitzhaber, however, spent most of what he had left in New Hampshire, hoping to score a first or second place finish to reinvigorate his campaign. Thus, while he performed well, it remains to be seen whether Kitzhaber will have momentum going forward. Underperforming expectations were Bill Richardson and Evan Bayh. Richardson remains dead-set on Nevada, while Bayh is focused on Florida and Michigan. Nonetheless, it's valid to question the viability of each strategy.

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And There They Go

Rudy Giuliani: From Mayor to Early Dropout

Even before the New Hampshire primary, everybody knew Rudy Giuliani's campaign was in freefall. First were his sometimes erratic policy positions. Simultaneously, Giuliani would tack right but try to stick to his moderate record. This essentially dried up his support base, as moderates concerned with national security flocked to McCain's resurgent campaign. Then there were the allegations of mismanagement. City contracts allegedly going to cronies, workers' compensation issues, the problems continued to compound. With attack ads hitting the airwaves in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida, Giuliani's stock fell and so did his fundraising. It was widely expected that he would stay in the race at least through Florida, where he was thought to have an outside chance, but the last few weeks have been particularly rough to Giuliani, and his frankly embarrassing finish in New Hampshire ended the campaign. Giuliani is not yet endorsing, but insiders have been talking about a potential McCain endorsement.


Kitzhaber Campaign "Exhausted"-Suspending Campaign and Endorsing Richardson

After pouring a significant degree of money and staff into New Hampshire with the goal of placing in first or second, and finishing a disappointing third, the anti-war Oregonian decided to leave the campaign trail and endorse Bill Richardson for President. Kitzhaber's campaign briefly appeared to have momentum earlier this year, and his policy stances played well on college campuses across the country. His best precincts in Iowa and towns in New Hampshire were those with many young voters. Of all the main Democratic candidates, Kitzhaber presented the most unabashedly liberal platform, promising universal healthcare, full repeal of the Bush tax cuts, a carbon tax, and an end to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. While themes of hope emanated from his campaign, the fundraising never picked up the pace, perhaps due to Richardson and Edwards drawing from major progressive donors. Kitzhaber today dropped out and endorsed Bill Richardson, lauding his experience and platform, especially on issues like immigration.


Lincoln Chafee Out of Presidential Race

Lincoln Chafee's anti-war GOP candidacy totally collapsed. At first, it appeared to fill a gap in the race for libertarian-leaning Republicans, but he proved far too awkward for the big stage. Morry Taylor has been the more popular candidate among antiwar Republicans and those ambivalent towards the war, staking out a much more populist position than Chafee. Perhaps liberty-minded Republicans are still searching for another candidate, somebody who sticks to the principles of small government consistently.

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Edwards HQ


January 10th, 2008

David Bonior (Campaign Manager): We need to go all in for Michigan. There's just no way a campaign managed by a former Michigan Congressman can lose it. We face two threats in Michigan, Evan Bayh and Hillary Clinton. Bayh promises to be strong in some of the working class areas we should be winning, which will be a challenge for us. What can we do to guard our support there?

Joe Trippi (Senior Strategist): Hillary's on the rise right now. I think she's the bigger threat, especially in some of the suburban blue-collar counties like Macomb and Monroe. Our internal polling shows that she's also competitive because of higher name recognition in Detroit and elsewhere.

David Bonior: What if we hit Hillary with an attack to take her down a notch in the cities? I'm thinking maybe something that will bolster us among youth and urban communities. Hit her on criminal justice reform?

Zephyr Teachout (Digital Media Manager): I think a big ad buy would be most effective. I'll get the ad team on it! Radio, web, TV. Michigan is big for us.

[UWS]

With Giuliani dropping out earlier, this ensures stronger performances for McCain in the next primaries after uniting the independent/moderate vote. And for your information, we all know that Giuliani will endorse McCain since he has said during a debate in New Hampshire that if he didn't run, he would be supporting McCain.

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Edwards Hits Clinton in Michigan

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Republicans Spar over Tax Policy while Dems Tangle on Trade

With Michigan, South Carolina, and Nevada quickly approaching, both parties have become embroiled in debates over economic policy. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback announced at a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan his plan to greatly slash corporate tax rates and institute a flat tax for all Americans. Brownback stated that this would provide a "shot of adrenaline to the national economy". However, not all Republican candidates agree on this policy. John McCain touted his policy to slash rates for middle-class households and banning technology taxes with the eventual goal of a flatter system while calling Brownback's plan a "risky experiment". McCain refused to sign a pledge never to raise taxes, but called Mitt Romney's plan a "tax increase". Morry Taylor lashed out at a press conference at McCain, Brownback, and Romney, claiming that only his plan to slash the federal bureaucracy by a third would provide a new path forward. Voters have not necessarily made the intricacies of tax policy a top voting issue this cycle, but there's no question that advocating for a tax increase is anathema to Republican voters and that the issue matters to donors.

Democrats, for their part, have been tangling about trade with Michigan coming up. While John Edwards attacked Hillary Clinton for her support of trade deals like NAFTA, unpopular in Michigan, Clinton defended her record with a radio ad and newspaper editorials defending her record of standing up for "smart trade with the interests of our workers and environment in mind". Clinton, for her part, is attempting to make the issue of trade an issue of leadership. Evan Bayh, who appears to have a chance in Michigan, is touting his "responsible" approach to the issue. Bayh voted for free trade deals with Chile and Singapore, but against CAFTA and a free trade deal with Oman. Bill Richardson has not discussed this issue as much, perhaps owing to his focus on Nevada and South Carolina instead of Michigan.

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Michigan Primary

January 15th, 2008

The Griz Roars and Clinton Falters


Republican Primary
Mitt Romney- 30%
John McCain- 25%
Morry Taylor- 22%
Sam Brownback- 14%
Rick Santorum- 9%

As the pollsters and pundits forecasted, Mitt Romney won in Michigan. Helped by his family name and strong suburban turnout, he prevailed over Senator John McCain by 5%. However, his expected win was not the biggest story of the night. For the second primary in a row, businessman Morry Taylor outperformed expectations, winning multiple counties and nearly beating John McCain. Taylor invested heavily in TV commercials, especially in the Detroit media market as well as the Marquette media market. He highlighted his work with tires in the industry and his track record of job creation. McCain invested in TV but didn't spend as much time in the state as Romney and Taylor, as his focus going forward is staying ahead in South Carolina.

The data breakdown for this primary lends credence to the idea that Morry Taylor's coalition of antiwar Republicans, independents, and blue-collar voters is growing. Mitt Romney won decidedly among higher-income voters, those in suburbs, and did well among the most frequent churchgoers. McCain did well all across the board, especially in the upper peninsula. Among moderate Republicans, McCain performed best and among veterans and their families, he predictably won by a large margin. Morry Taylor won anti-war GOPers, independents who voted in the primary, and union households. Sam Brownback finished in second place in Hillsdale County, and performed best in the Republican counties around Grand Rapids. Rick Santorum's thunder appears to have been stolen by both Brownback and Taylor.


Democratic Primary
John Edwards- 30%
Evan Bayh- 27%
Hillary Clinton- 26%
Al Sharpton- 8%
Bill Richardson- 5%
Dennis Kucinich- 4%

The biggest loser of tonight is Hillary Clinton, who finished third as Evan Bayh assured his presence in the race with a strong second-place finish. After many doubts about whether his campaign could persist, this is an indicator that Bayh remains a competitor. This finish may jumpstart his fundraising. John Edwards prevailed after a grueling schedule and a relatively negative campaign against Hillary Clinton. Edwards' victory is attributable to the efforts of the many labor unions who endorsed him, as well as progressive voters in places like Kalamazoo and Ann Arbor. USW particularly played a role in his strong margins in the Upper Peninsula. Bayh spent lots of time on the ground, catering a moderate appeal. Hillary Clinton, attacked from both sides, continued to lose ground to both her left and right.

Edwards won union households and blue-collar workers by a large margin, with Hillary Clinton coming in second. While Clinton won Black voters, she did so by a relatively narrow margin. Young voters and self-described progressives also preferred Edwards to the other candidates. Edwards' second-place performances in Wayne and Kent counties and his close third place in Oakland County allowed his margins elsewhere to create a victory. Bayh won over self-described moderate Democrats over Hillary Clinton and did best in Western portions of the state, finishing first among college-educated voters by a tiny margin. Interestingly, Al Sharpton finished with 19% in Detroit proper, although he got blown out elsewhere in the state. Richardson and Kitzhaber did best in college towns, although they didn't come close to winning.