IA - PPP: O'Malley and Booker lead the pack (O'Malley internal poll)

[The Other Castro]

Martin O'Malley's leadership PAC "O’Say Can You See" commissioned an Iowa poll from PPP (so grain of salt):

O'Malley - 18%
Booker - 17%
Klobuchar - 11%
Castro, Cuomo, Gillibrand, Harris, Howard Schultz, Sheryl Sandberg - <10% each
Not sure - 32%

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Noticeably absent from this poll: Warren, Sanders, Brown.

PPP surveyed 1,062 Iowa Democrats from March 3-6.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/omalley-iowa-2020-236063

[The Other Castro]

So if PPP did a "real" poll of Iowa, not for O'Malley's Super PAC, and included this same list of candidates but added Warren, what do you think the result would be?

Maybe something like:

Warren - 31%
Booker - 15%
O'Malley - 9%
Klobuchar - 7%
Gillibrand - 4%
Cuomo - 4%
Castro - 2%%
Harris - 2%
Schultz - 1%
Sandberg - 1%
Not sure - 24%

[The Other Castro]

This poll will be as creditable as having Bush leading in 2016. Booker will be nowhere to be found, especially when dealing with his own primary challenge in New Jersey.

Polls are as credible as they are valid in what they are trying to measure. They are not trying to be predictive, but measuring snapshots of the levels of support at the time. It could very well have been credible polls that put Bush in the lead, just as O'Malley may credibly lead a Warren-less field in Iowa at the moment.

[The Other Castro]

Could it actually work though?  Or is O’Malley stuck, in that no matter what policy positions he advocates or what rhetorical bombs he flings at Trump, it’s not going to come across as authentic?

My guess is it most likely will not work. He may get more attention in the short term, but Democratic primary campaigns like that would fizzle out in the long term.