Ukrainian presidential election, 2019

[kelestian]

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll

Tymoshenko    19.3
Poroshenko     11.9
Zelensky         11.8   (showman/actor)
Hrytsenko       10.9   (Civic Position Party)
Vakarchuk        8.4   (singer)
Boiko               8.1   (Opposition Bloc)
Rabinovych       7.5   (Life Party)
Liashko             6.7   (Radical Party)
Sadovy             4.2   (Lviv mayor)

I am for Boiko but I guess he will not make it into the second round.  Looks like Tymoshenko will make it into the second round and a cluster of candidates fighting to make it into second round to face her.

Zelensky's surge is interesting and shows the extent of the mood against conventional politics. 

There are ongoing talks between Boiko and Rabynovich about reunion. If Rabinovich isn't a nominee (and it's not clear that Zelenskiy will be candidate, either; his electoral base isn't the same with Boiko's, but some of Zelenskiy's voters will go that way), Boiko will be the single south-eastern candidate on the ballot and make it to the run-off.

[kelestian]

Latest polls, 28.09-16.10
https://www.unian.net/politics/10321353-novyy-prezidentskiy-reyting-timoshenko-v-liderah-zelenskiy-obognal-poroshenko.html
https://www.unian.net/politics/10321596-poroshenko-proigryvaet-vtoroy-tur-lyubomu-iz-sopernikov-opros.html

First round
Tymoshenko 18,9%
Zelensky (actor/comedian) 10,7%
Hrytsenko (former Defense Minister)  9.9%
Poroshenko 9.9%
Boiko (Opposition Bloc)  9.8% 
Liashko (Radical Party)  8%
Vakarchuk (singer) 7%

Run-offs:
Poroshenko 14.3% Hrytsenko 33.1%
Poroshenko 15.1% Tymoshenko 30.7%
Poroshenko 20% Boiko 20.2%


Some big news: government finally has reached an agreement with IMF. Under the agreement. Ukraine must raise gas prices for public, so i predict Poroshenko's ratings will fall further. Also Russia yesterday imposed sanctions on a lot of ukrainian individuals and companies, but it won't have big impact on elections, i guess. Maybe urge east-ukrainian elites to speed up their unification talks. Right now it seems there will be at lest two major east candidates: Boiko/Rabynovich/Vilkul from Opposition Bloc and young MP Muraev. Also Taruta (Donbass oligarch), but he is marginal candidate.

Thoughts about Zelensky surge and Vakarchuk falling in polls: both still haven't announced their campaigns, and while Zelensky commented this fact with jokes, Vakarchuk waited kinda too long. Everyone expected his announcement during big concert in Kiev (August), but instead he gave generic speech about "We all must do good things and don't do bad things". And he is competing with many candidates for western and central voters (educated, more urban and younger base) - Sadovy, Hrytsenko, even with Poroshenko.
Zelensky is more eastern candidate, where there is Boiko, but Boiko is weak candidate and Zelensky's base is younger. He has Kolomoyskiy's support (oligarch, now in fight with Poroshenko), new season of his show "Servant of the people" (in this series Zelensky, school teacher, suddenly became the president) will be streaming during final stage of elections and he is almost certainly to run.

[kelestian]

Will the split in the Orthodox Church affect voters on the issues?

Poroshenko thinks it will help him. I don't know, hard to say, but i'll predict that economic issues will be more important.

Boyko is in, with a unified OB-ZZ platform. Interestingly, this still doesn't look like it will be enough to give him a solid chance of making the second round, as Rabinovich's support has been collapsing for some time.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2018/11/17/7198528/

And Akmetov's part of OB don't like it. Actually, Opppsition Bloc split yesterday.

Rabinovich support was collapsing because his former friend, Muraev, announced his bid. Now he is at 5%. Potentially, I think, Muraev can be the strongest east candidate. But we will see, maybe Akhmetov also will launch campaign of some of his supporters like Vilkul and east electorate divides on election day.

[kelestian]

Is the recent scandal involving Zelenky’s artistic property in Russia gonna hurt him in the polls?

No, at all. Poroshenko's manufacture in Russia, Lipetsk didn't hurt him in 2014.

[kelestian]

So, there are record-high number of registered candidates - 44 people, 4 women and 40 men. Between them: 16 MPs, former minister of defense, special forces colonel, two former heads of intelligence agency (SBU).

Based on the latest polls, list of main candidates:

TOP TIER
Volodymyr Zelensky, comedian, actor, TV-host and showman. Skyrocketed in latest polls, now he is the leader of the race. Clearly populist candidate, pro-western, but probably the least pro-western from pro-western candidates, with moderate position on many topics, like language or war in Donbass. Has deep connections to oligarch Kolomoysky.
Yulia Tymoshenko, MP, former prime-minister, old player in Ukrainian politics, leader of "Fatherland" party. Pro-western kinda populist candidate with primarily rural and old base. Dominated polls through 2017-2018, but now her chances are not so clear.
Petro Poroshenko, incumbent president, businessman, leader of BPP. His polling numbers are now better than 2 months ago (after the whole new church thing).

MIDDLE TIER
Yuriy Boyko, MP, former member of Yanukovich government. Pro-eastern candidate, now his chances are low because of disagreements between eastern clans, their parliamentary group (Opposition Bloc) has splitted. Has endorsements of such prominent figures as Lyovochkin, Medvedchuk, and probably has Russian support.
Anatoliy Hrytsenko, former defense minister, pro-western politician. Recently general attorney opened investigations against him (corruption during his career in Defense).
Oleg Lyashko, MP, populist candidate from rural north Ukraine, leader of "Radical party". Now it seems like he became puppet of influential oligarch Akhmetov. Interesting fact: Lyashko, despite his homophobic remarks, is gay.

LOW TIER
Oleksandr Vilkul, MP, pro-eastern candidate, has support from Akhmetov and Novinskiy.
Evgeny Muraev, MP and businessman, pro-eastern candidate from Kharkiv.  
Andryi Sadovyi, mayor of Lviv, pro-western candidate, leader of Self-Reliance party.

[kelestian]

Has anyone actually seen Zelensky's TV show? What's it like? What's the tone? Is it comparable to the West Wing? To In the Thick of It?

Yeah, essentially a schoolteacher leads a liberal government that is viewed positively by the people due to his hard stance against corruption and the Administration’s honesty. It trashes career politicians, their masters’ the oligarchs, and nepotism. I haven’t seen West Wing, so maybe other people will have to fill in. If you’re so curious, it’s on Netflix right now for U.S. viewers called “Servant of the People”.

It was honestly pretty funny and chill. But to me the best star was the bodyguard and the diplomat’s advisor, not the President.

Also ,how deep are Zelensky’s ties to that oligarch? I thought he was relatively clean regarding corruption compared to at least Tymoshenko?

Well, of course he is clean regarding corruption, he has never been government official before) But his ties with Kolomoysky are very strong. He has been working on Kolomoyskiy's channel 1+1 for years, attacked in comedic sketches Kolomoyskiy's enemies. Now "Benya" (Kolomoyskiy's nickname) is the main supporter of Zelensky's campaign, even gave his bodyguards to Zelensky.

[kelestian]

Full list of candidates:
https://www.rferl.org/a/meet-ukraines-presidential-candidates-2019/29756553.html

[kelestian]

Some news
Today Andrei Sadovyi (mayor of Lviv, had 2-3% in polls) and Dmytro Gnap (minor candidate) dropped out from the race and announced their support towards Anatoliy Hrytsenko.


There are 3 ongoing HUGE scandals in Ukrainan politics.

1) It wasn't a big secret that Pororshenko and other government officials are involved in corruption schemes around military-industrial complex. But latest journalist investigationmade it clear that top managers of Ukrainian military-industrial complex and top Poroshnko's ally (and his friend for many years) partiipated in fishy schemes.
https://www.rferl.org/a/weeks-ahead-of-ukraine-vote-poroshenko-under-fire-over-smuggling-claim/29791859.html
Btw, in few days journalists will release second part of investigation.

2) Top officials from both Poroshenko's and Tymoshenko's parties in Kherson region were accused in organizing of killing anti-corruption activist Kateryna Handziuk. Speaker of regional legislature Manger, from Tymoshenko's party, was indicted.
https://112.international/article/who-is-who-in-acid-attack-murder-of-ukrainian-activist-handziuk-36970.html
However other two guys from Poroshenko's party, governor Hordeyev and his deputy Ryshchuk for now are clear from charges.

3) Constitutional Court (controlled by government) has killed major anti-corruption law, and public is angry.
https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/constitutional_court_ruling_undermines_anti_corruption_achievements_in_ukra

[kelestian]

Some news
Today Andrei Sadovyi (mayor of Lviv, had 2-3% in polls) and Dmytro Gnap (minor candidate) dropped out from the race and announced their support towards Anatoliy Hrytsenko.


There are 3 ongoing HUGE scandals in Ukrainan politics.

1) It wasn't a big secret that Pororshenko and other government officials are involved in corruption schemes around military-industrial complex. But latest journalist investigationmade it clear that top managers of Ukrainian military-industrial complex and top Poroshnko's ally (and his friend for many years) partiipated in fishy schemes.
https://www.rferl.org/a/weeks-ahead-of-ukraine-vote-poroshenko-under-fire-over-smuggling-claim/29791859.html
Btw, in few days journalists will release second part of investigation.

2) Top officials from both Poroshenko's and Tymoshenko's parties in Kherson region were accused in organizing of killing anti-corruption activist Kateryna Handziuk. Speaker of regional legislature Manger, from Tymoshenko's party, was indicted.
https://112.international/article/who-is-who-in-acid-attack-murder-of-ukrainian-activist-handziuk-36970.html
However other two guys from Poroshenko's party, governor Hordeyev and his deputy Ryshchuk for now are clear from charges.

3) Constitutional Court (controlled by government) has killed major anti-corruption law, and public is angry.
https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/constitutional_court_ruling_undermines_anti_corruption_achievements_in_ukra

  RIP FF

Not that I expected Sadovyi to go anywhere, and this is a responsible move from him. It would be great were Hrytsenko bumped back up into the top tier, I would take him over the top three. Endorsed by default for now.

Another major thing going on recently is the Rada failed to pass a major defense reform which would have brought the Ukrainian army up to NATO standards. This is a major embarrassment for the government.

How did that occur and what was the vote breakdown? Seems like an incredibly stupid thing to vote down such an essential legislation.

I'm not sure it was really that important. Haven't seen any articles about this in ukrainian press (maybe 1-2 articles). Usually when such measures don't pass, it means poor lobbying from authorities - if government want something pro-nato or pro-eu to pass, it can easily do this (see changes in constitution about goal to move to NATO and EU - recently government recruited constitutional majority for this)

[kelestian]

i hope after this election:

zelenski - president
tymoshenko - opposition
poroshenko - jail

Most of major candidates promised to prosecute Poroshenko) but he can easily escape to some western country, he has real estate in England and Spain.

[kelestian]

For some unknown reason, Poroshenko decided to attack (via his close ally and relative, Attorney General Lutsenko) current US Ambassador, Marie Yovanovitch.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/434875-top-ukrainian-justice-official-says-us-ambassador-gave-him-a-do-not-prosecute

Between other things, he accused head of NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau) and some MPs in working for Hillary Clinton during 2016 US election. They, with assistance of ambassador Yovanovitch, tried to damage Paul Manafort's reputation. If you read Trump's twitter, he mentioned this question several times in last days.

Really, I think it's stupid move by President Petro. He definitely doesn't like Yovanovitch, who criticized ukrainian government in the past, but accuse her of participation in crime and in conspiracy against Trump? He also hates NGO's and activists supported by Embassy, but are they that big of a threat? It's clear he tries to make alliance with Trump against State Department bureucracy, but
1) He himself supported Clinton in 2016. I doubt that Manafort's info was leaked without his authorization
2) What if Trump loses in 2020?

[kelestian]

This week two debates should have occured, first with middle-tier candidates (Hrytsenko, Lyashko, Boyko), and second today - with Poro, Yulia and Zelenskiy. Only Hrytsenko has participated, so, basically, no debates. Maybe before second round?

[kelestian]

Elections tomorrow!

Recent polls from the most credible pollsters:

Razumkov Centre, without undecided:
Zelenskiy - 24.8%
Poroshenko - 22.1%
Timoshenko - 14.8%
Boyko - 10.0%
Hrytsenko - 8.2%

Rating Group
Zelenskiy - 26.6%
Poroshenko - 17.2%
Timoshenko - 17.2%
Hrytsenko - 9.8%
Boyko - 9.5%


KMIIS
Zelenskiy - 27.6%
Poroshenko - 18.2%
Timoshenko - 12.8%
Boyko - 11.1%
Hrytsenko - 8.4%

[kelestian]

I am for Boyko but I would be fine if Poroshenko wins re-election

Interesting choices, given that Boyko is one of the most pro-Russia candidates, and Poroshenlo - one of the most anti-Russia...

Yeah, and economically they are also very different, and culturally...

[kelestian]

I am for Boyko but I would be fine if Poroshenko wins re-election

Interesting choices, given that Boyko is one of the most pro-Russia candidates, and Poroshenlo - one of the most anti-Russia...

Yeah, and economically they are also very different, and culturally...

Isn't Boyko pretty liberal, in contrast to Proroshenko's religious nationalism?

Liberal in ethnic questions - yeah. Mainly it's about rights of Russian minority, but in recent years also about Hungarians. Historically, all minorities supported eastern parties, except for Crimeans and Poles, they supported Western parties.

In LGBT relations... I don't know Boyko's positions, but suspect he isn't very liberal. Poroshenko was pretty friendly to LGBT at first, but during this campaign he painted himself as conservative and "defender of family values". Between his allies, there are staunch LGBT-defenders and ugly homophobes.

[kelestian]

The results were rigged by the current President, Petro Poroshenko. I am personally convinced of this

don't worry, he's done in second round

I understand, but I would like to see President Tymoshenko, not a comedian Zelensky

She can easily win parliamentary elections.

[kelestian]

I wonder, does Ukraine have a functioning impeachment policy for the presidency. How are constitutional balances faring since EuroMaidan if the runoff winner turns incompetent and malicious.

There is no law about impeachment now. Zelenskiy promised to introduce such law.

[kelestian]

Some maps.

Poroshenko vs Zelenskiy. Best region for Zelenskiy - Dniepro region, he is from that region. For Poroshenko - Lviv


Poroshenko by regions


Electoral districts, won by candidates, green - Zelenskiy, red - Poro, pink - Timoshenko, blue - Boyko


Boyko vs Poroshenko, electoral districts


Map of precincts


Precincts in Kiy(e)v. Zelenskiy won in poorer parts of city

[kelestian]

Interesting precincts:
Zelenskiy is leading in prisons, but with Timoshenko at close second position and even behind her in some
Timoshenko won many precincts in hospitals, especially in central Ukraine
Poroshenko won special districts for soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with Zelenskiy as close second
Poroshenko won abroad, Switzerland is his best performance (60%+), but Zelenskiy won almost all of Eastern Europe, and Boyko won in Estonia and Moldova
Zelenskiy won universities in Kiev, some of them (like Kiev Politech) - strongly

[kelestian]

Is there a reason why places like Donetsk still votes for pro-russian candidates? If you add the two pro-russian candidates with 10-30% of Zelensky support who can be broadly either pro-russia or pro-peace talks. They make up 50%+ when the areas were affected by war.

Those are pro-Russian regions. It was Yanukovich's electoral fortress. Also, some Russian TV and Radio channels still work there.

[kelestian]

Rumours about pro-Poroshenko falsifications at several precincts in Donetsk region.

Is there a reason why places like Donetsk still votes for pro-russian candidates? If you add the two pro-russian candidates with 10-30% of Zelensky support who can be broadly either pro-russia or pro-peace talks. They make up 50%+ when the areas were affected by war.

Those are pro-Russian regions. It was Yanukovich's electoral fortress. Also, some Russian TV and Radio channels still work there.

I know but theres area that was a battle site years ago. Perhaps people are just reacting to high unemployment and want a peace settlement even if they know Russia wouldn't honor it.

Sloviansk for example was devastated but 52.2% of the vote there went to Boiko and Vikul combined.

Those people think that it's Kiev government who has started the war, probably. Government ethnonationalism isn't helping either. And terrible economical situation in Donetsk-Luhansk regions

[kelestian]

Map by districts. Brown district in Donetsk region - place where falsifications were, about 50 000 non-existent votes for Poroshenko were added (not only in this district, in sum through Donetsk region).

[kelestian]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-04/ukrainian-leader-agrees-to-debate-comic-in-stadium-before-runoff
Ukrainian Leader Agrees to Debate Comic in Stadium Before Runoff

Excellent! Does anyone with better Ukrainian language skill than me know if this will be broadcast anywhere with Russian or English translation?

It's not clear, where it will be broadcasted, if it will be at all. Theoretically, at Суспильне, but Zelenskiy wanted all channels, so it would be broadcasted on youtube on 112 and Newsone.
But probably without translation

[kelestian]

After Po accepted the invitation to have a debate suggested Ze that Ti should be a moderate the debate to make it transparent...

Today, they were taking a drug tests to prove that they are not alcoholics or drug addicts... Then Klichko, the Mayor of Kiev and a former boxer, weights in and trolls them by saying that those drug test are joke and that he can organize the real one for them… Surreal...


It is starting to become a big fat joke... Does Ze want to lose?


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47819047
https://www.facebook.com/KlitschkoOfficial/posts/10156171518155205

Those events are good for Zelenskiy. He is comedian, after all. And Poroshenko so far has done nothing to raise his rating.

[kelestian]

Big question is whether the next Ukrainian President will be Pro-US ?

I doubt the Po-isto will get reelected at this point. What did he do to piss people off ?

Zelensky is not pro-US/EU. But at the same time, he doesn't pro-Russia, at least to the extent Yanukovych was and Boyko could have been.

Actually, he is pro-EU and pro-US. Differences between him and all others pro-EU pro-NATO candidates: he wants referendum about should Ukraine go into NATO (Zelenskiy himself supports NATO)? And he wants peace talks with Russia (as compromises, Ze team spoke about real autonomy for Donbass).