Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)

[Boston Bread]

Ugh, so I had to turn in the moment the lead switched?
Sanders can still win if he gets a strong performance in Lexington.

[Boston Bread]

The results from WV and KY on the Democratic side make no sense if you look at the neighboring states. Tennessee's border with Kentucky is solidly Clinton country, and especially in the counties bordering Kentucky's western panhandle are strong Clinton counties. Yet it now appears as tho Sanders will win strongly in some counties where across the state lines Clinton took 60, sometimes 70 percent. Is it that her comments about coal made them rebel against her, or is it just that these states' Democratic electorates are so different from their neighbor's ones. I don't really believe in the idea that her coal comments alienated so many people; especially for Democratic voters, I feel that most of the outrage is an overreaction. However I can see it playing into an image of Clinton as someone who just can't relate to these kinds of voters. Yet again, I'm reminded that she won rural eastern Ohio, western PA, and western VA, as well as Appalachian TN. Still doesn't make much sense.

Closed primaries force conservative democrats to vote in their primary. That's the main difference. In TN and SW Virginia they all voted for Trump.

[Boston Bread]

I noticed that Letcher county had more votes for Sanders than Obama in 2012 general election. lol

[Boston Bread]

Sanders is over 1,000 votes ahead. Still waiting for Jefferson.

Where are you looking? NYT has him up 216 votes.

NYT is usually slightly behind. They're at Sanders up 1000 now.

[Boston Bread]

Marion glitched out at 98-2 Sanders.

[Boston Bread]

All of the Clinton counties are close enough to make a Bernie sweep a possibility. Although it is made less likely by the fact that there is less of an early/election day vote distinction like in IN or WV.

edit:

This does not include votes handed in today. Which I imagine will be more pro-Bernie.

Depending on how much of a difference there are in these votes, it would make a Bernie county sweep quite likely.

[Boston Bread]

Right now Sanders is doing well in the Portland area. It's a large enclave of SJWs.

Yes, but you forgot that Harlan county, KY is an even bigger enclave of SJWs, coming in at 62% Sanders.

[Boston Bread]

Looks like we're at the "mail in lull." Like I said earlier in the thread, WA was stuck at ~50% reporting for most of the night in 2010. Is the same gonna happen here?

Shame because the late ballots will favour Sanders. Hopefully I wake up to a 10pt margin and county sweep in the morning.

[Boston Bread]

The way OR is going, it should be a double digit win, though not a huge one. Probably 10-12%. That shouldn't be possible, since Sanders obviously can't ever win a closed primary, and his 46% win in WA would've been a loss if only it had been a primary! Anyway, I'll accept my accolades when Bernie crosses 55%. Yeah, it's not an extreme landslide, but it still shows that the PNW is Bernie country, if Hillary loses by more than 10% even under the best conditions for her.

The late returns are really favouring Bernie. The ballots that came in from 70% reporting to 85% Bernie had to have favoured him by 20 points to make a 3 point difference in the margin. This means Bernie will probably win by 13-14 in the end.

[Boston Bread]

Considering Oregon was the Berniest state left on the calendar and before yesterday he needed to win 2/3 of the remaining pledged delegates this was a disater for him at least in terms of the fantasy he could win the nomination.

The second part is true, but Bernie will almost certainly do better in North Dakota (caucus), and probably Montana (open primary).

[Boston Bread]

Also: I really liked Benchmark before this, but just ugh at how they're dismissing their bad call in Oregon.

[Boston Bread]

Deschutes county flips to Sanders. Clinton is left with just her one vote lead in Gilliam County.

I demand a recount in Gilliam!

Seriously, what is the chance that Bernie was one vote away from a county sweep in 2 states? Clearly DWS hacked the voting machines to prevent this from happening.

[Boston Bread]

Wow, when was the last time Bernie did better in urban areas than statewide?