Why did Ohio shift so hard right in the 2010’s?

[Samof94]

2012 to 2016 was like night and day. What changed?

[TML]

Trump's protectionism won over voters in northeastern and north-central OH, while both Hillary and Biden were proponents of free trade (which did them no favors in these regions). At this time, the key to a Democratic statewide win in OH is to hold strong in the aforementioned regions, which only Sherrod Brown has been able to do since the mid-2010s (his campaign was focused on protecting workers' rights, which resonated there).

[Suburbia]

Trump's protectionism won over voters in northeastern and north-central OH, while both Hillary and Biden were proponents of free trade (which did them no favors in these regions). At this time, the key to a Democratic statewide win in OH is to hold strong in the aforementioned regions, which only Sherrod Brown has been able to do since the mid-2010s (his campaign was focused on protecting workers' rights, which resonated there).

Then what explains John Kasich? He's a free trader Republican that likes tax cuts and lesser government, how did that message win in 2010 and 2014?

[lfromnj]

Obama also ran a perfect campaign in 2012 . In Scioto County Ohio he had the highest percentage of any Democratic candidate since 1976 while also reaching the highest percentage of any Democratic candidate in Franklin County Ohio(only to be surpassed later in 2020 by Biden)

[One Term Floridian]

Trump's protectionism won over voters in northeastern and north-central OH, while both Hillary and Biden were proponents of free trade (which did them no favors in these regions). At this time, the key to a Democratic statewide win in OH is to hold strong in the aforementioned regions, which only Sherrod Brown has been able to do since the mid-2010s (his campaign was focused on protecting workers' rights, which resonated there).

Then what explains John Kasich? He's a free trader Republican that likes tax cuts and lesser government, how did that message win in 2010 and 2014?

Kasich basically won in 2010 due to tea party support and won in a landslide in 2014 because the Dems triaged the race. In both races his numbers were underwhelming in WWC areas, especially in 2010 that map looks like a clear Dem win if it had not been for Strickland doing lackluster in urban areas. Funny how many of the Strickland counties would never vote for a Dem again, not even for sherrod brown

[pbrower2a]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio. 

[David Hume]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio. 

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio.  

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

[pbrower2a]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio.  

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

Pack and sack. The typical gerrymander works by conceding that a big city has areas that might be 70% D, so the Republicans concede as much of that as is necessary that much of the  rest of the state can be sliced like pizza except that small areas that are about 70% D are overwhelmed by rural areas that are 60% R. This way the state legislature can be designed for a permanent 3-2 split, and the minority party must bow and scrape to get anything. The opposition becomes impotent, ineffective, and irrelevant. That's not quite Iraq under Saddam Hussein or North Korea under the Kim dynasty, but that also works well for a permanent and unassailable majority. 

The old German Democratic Republic (East Germany) was technically a multi-party system, but the Communists could ensure that the Communist-dominated coalition had a large-enough majority that it could ram through practically any legislation that it wanted with little discussion. That could well serve a right0wing, crony-capitalist party, too.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Trump's protectionism won over voters in northeastern and north-central OH, while both Hillary and Biden were proponents of free trade (which did them no favors in these regions). At this time, the key to a Democratic statewide win in OH is to hold strong in the aforementioned regions, which only Sherrod Brown has been able to do since the mid-2010s (his campaign was focused on protecting workers' rights, which resonated there).

Then what explains John Kasich? He's a free trader Republican that likes tax cuts and lesser government, how did that message win in 2010 and 2014?

I don’t think voters care about GUBERNATORIAL candidates’ stances on trade.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio.  

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

That reminds me, why do Cincinnati and Cleveland get professional sports teams and Columbus doesn't? It's both a bigger city and metro area.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio.  

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

That reminds me, why do Cincinnati and Cleveland get professional sports teams and Columbus doesn't? It's both a bigger city and metro area.

I guess they have the Blue Jackets?

[Chips]

Honestly, Ohio has always been leaning to the right. It's just that Obama was a good fit for the state and Brown was a great campaigner who always had the fortune to run in favorable D years. Trump merely kicked it into overdrive.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio.  

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

That reminds me, why do Cincinnati and Cleveland get professional sports teams and Columbus doesn't? It's both a bigger city and metro area.

No one gives a flying f*** about major league sports when you've got THE Ohio State Buckeyes, baby.

[bagelman]

Honestly, Ohio has always been leaning to the right. It's just that Obama was a good fit for the state and Brown was a great campaigner who always had the fortune to run in favorable D years. Trump merely kicked it into overdrive.

Ohio in 2000 may have been more "normal" Ohio. Still a lot closer than it is now but clear right lean relative to the nation. Kerry, Obama, and Brown were all very good fits for the state. I don't remember Biden being a free trader but it doesn't matter anymore.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Honestly, Ohio has always been leaning to the right. It's just that Obama was a good fit for the state and Brown was a great campaigner who always had the fortune to run in favorable D years. Trump merely kicked it into overdrive.

Ohio in 2000 may have been more "normal" Ohio. Still a lot closer than it is now but clear right lean relative to the nation. Kerry, Obama, and Brown were all very good fits for the state. I don't remember Biden being a free trader but it doesn't matter anymore.

It's not highlighted enough the Reverse Great Migration's impact on Midwest political geography. The increases in the black pop % in states like Georgia didn't materialize out of nowhere.
The Dem floor in states like Ohio is declining and AAs moving to the Sunbelt is a key contributor to that.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump's protectionism won over voters in northeastern and north-central OH, while both Hillary and Biden were proponents of free trade (which did them no favors in these regions). At this time, the key to a Democratic statewide win in OH is to hold strong in the aforementioned regions, which only Sherrod Brown has been able to do since the mid-2010s (his campaign was focused on protecting workers' rights, which resonated there).

Then what explains John Kasich? He's a free trader Republican that likes tax cuts and lesser government, how did that message win in 2010 and 2014?

Kasich basically won in 2010 due to tea party support and won in a landslide in 2014 because the Dems triaged the race. In both races his numbers were underwhelming in WWC areas, especially in 2010 that map looks like a clear Dem win if it had not been for Strickland doing lackluster in urban areas. Funny how many of the Strickland counties would never vote for a Dem again, not even for sherrod brown

2000's OH was lightyears away politically from today. In 2006 Ted Strickland won Appalachian and NE OH in a landslide but lost Cincinnati to the Republican Ken Blackwell.

[ibagli]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio.  

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

That reminds me, why do Cincinnati and Cleveland get professional sports teams and Columbus doesn't? It's both a bigger city and metro area.

It wasn't when the professional sports leagues were formed, and even now Cleveland is still a substantially bigger TV market than Columbus (#19 vs. #33), though Columbus is now slightly bigger than Cincinnati (#36) in that respect.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's always been an R state, eventhough CLINTON and Obama won it they didn't pick up any new D seats in State Legislature dominated by Rs

Boehner was Speaker like Tim Ryan brought Earmarks back to OH

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio.  

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

In my experience, the feeling tends to be pretty mutual

[Pink Panther]

Trump happened. Also, a massive decline in minority and young professional % helps tremendously.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio.  

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

In my experience, the feeling tends to be pretty mutual

True. Somewhat ironic, given many Columbus residents aren't locals, so it's frequently a hatred of one's hometown.

[Хahar 🤔]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio. 

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

That reminds me, why do Cincinnati and Cleveland get professional sports teams and Columbus doesn't? It's both a bigger city and metro area.

In both transportation infrastructure and settlement history, Columbus resembles nothing more than a Sun Belt city; it became prominent relatively recently. Sun Belt cities in general received teams through expansion or relocation late in the 20th century, but Columbus is relatively close to Cleveland and Cincinnati and Columbus residents generally have pre-existing attachments to teams from those cities, so Columbus has generally not been considered. The exceptions are the NHL, which has not historically had much of a presence in Ohio (there was a short-lived Cleveland team that folded in the '70s), and MLS, which was created in the '90s.

As BuckeyeNut mentioned, the other factor is that Ohio State dominates the attentions of Columbus. Professional sports has to play second fiddle.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Democrats collapsed in the rural and small town areas throughout the state while also losing a lot of ground with WCW in the urban/suburban areas of the northeast. Their gains in the Cincinnati and Columbus metros haven't been enough to offset.

[lfromnj]

Ohio has been trending right because aside from Greater Columbus and rural areas the state has been hemorrhaging voters. The population growth in Columbus is in largely the result of people leaving some strong-D urban areas who do not go to other states. Columbus keeps Ohio from becoming another Missouri, but it is not attracting people from outside Ohio. 

The trend is OH is becoming another MS, just not yet.

lol

Anyway, what everyone else has said is mostly right. But also: a very aggressive gerrymander broke Democrats' ability to recruit anyone to anything above Mayor outside the major metro areas and Athens, which has had a debilitating effect on candidate recruitment. Columbus becoming the juggernaut for Ohio Democrats has been damning, as people from across the state resent it terribly.

That reminds me, why do Cincinnati and Cleveland get professional sports teams and Columbus doesn't? It's both a bigger city and metro area.

In both transportation infrastructure and settlement history, Columbus resembles nothing more than a Sun Belt city; it became prominent relatively recently. Sun Belt cities in general received teams through expansion or relocation late in the 20th century, but Columbus is relatively close to Cleveland and Cincinnati and Columbus residents generally have pre-existing attachments to teams from those cities, so Columbus has generally not been considered. The exceptions are the NHL, which has not historically had much of a presence in Ohio (there was a short-lived Cleveland team that folded in the '70s), and MLS, which was created in the '90s.

As BuckeyeNut mentioned, the other factor is that Ohio State dominates the attentions of Columbus. Professional sports has to play second fiddle.

Don't forget city lines too
Cleveland is very clean with only one small enclave on the lakeshore and Cincinatti is a bit ugly but its relatively compact besides a few weird tendrils and enclaves.

Columbus is a monstrosity.