German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[CO-OWL]

Doesn't happen here either; Wilson (for some funny reason) decided to wait until 1970 before calling the election. He still lost, but it was fairly close and he bounced back in '74 (Feb).

I was actually refering to the characteristic of the British system that the Prime Minister often calls for an election before the end of the five-year term. Of course this is done when a PM is confident to WIN the election and not in the time of a crisis.

This whole thing is weird... does Schröder know something no one else does?

Perhaps he has a secret plan.

I was as much surprised by this decision as everyone else in Germany. Probably it´s a kind of "attack is the best form of defense". It was widely expected that the defeat in NRW would lead to a major ideological conflict within the SPD. There were even rumours of a split of the party´s parliamentary group. So, for Schröder it was a lose-lose situation anyway. And before the government is totally paralyzed by internal fightings he probably thought that he could call for new elections just as well. So, there´s at least a small chance to survive. That´s what I suspect.

Sounds like a good explanation to a very surprising development.
Schröder generally acts best, when he's under pressure...

I think he will try to make it a personality contest:
Schröder/Fischer vs. "GWB buddy" Merkel/"Political lightweight" Westerwelle (FDP chairman)

[CO-OWL]

If PDS/WASG could mobilize enough frustrated SPD voters who would stay home otherwise, this might be the only chance for the SPD to be at least the junior partner in a grand coalition...
But first let's see whether PDS and WASG can really cooperate. There's very little time for negotiations and building a joint organization.

[CO-OWL]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

[CO-OWL]

Well, I tried to answer the Political Compass as if I were the party´s main candidates.


Schröder (SPD)
Economic Left/Right: -2.25
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.82

Merkel (CDU)
Economic Left/Right: 1.50
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.92

Fischer (Greens)
Economic Left/Right: -3.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.90

Westerwelle (FDP)
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.87

Gysi (Left Party)
Economic Left/Right: -8.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.38

Lafontaine (Left Party)
Economic Left/Right: -8.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.38

Voigt (NPD)
Economic Left/Right: -7.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.69

Playing with the Political Compass I got results quite similar to those of Old Europe: (including Edmund Stoiber)

Schröder (SPD)
Economic Left/Right: -2.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.41

Merkel (CDU)
Economic Left/Right: 1.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -1.20

Fischer (Greens)
Economic Left/Right: -5.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.64

Westerwelle (FDP)
Economic Left/Right: 4.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.78

Stoiber (CSU)
Economic Left/Right: 0.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.08

I agree that the Left Party (PDS) should be around -8/-7, with Lafontaine heading for the populist direction.
The NPD will end up with around 2% of the vote and that's it.

[CO-OWL]

The question is - why is the shrewd old beast doing that? Has he given up all hope of Merkel becoming chancellor and is trying to ensure she loses worse than he did? Or does he merely fear that the CSU result of four years ago can't be maintained (no Bavarian is running for chancellor after all) and is trying to boost the CSU's relative strength compared to the CDU?

I assume the latter. Bashing the East Germans is apparently popular among the Bavarian electorate. However, Stoiber didn´t take into account that the national media could acutally notice what he´s doing there, which, in hindsight, was rather naive of him. Either this or he simply doesn´t care how much damage he´s doing to the CDU as long as the CSU´s election result will be very good.

I think bashing the "ungrateful" East Germans might attract voters in other West German states as well. Sadly there's still a large gap between "Wessis" and "Ossis".
Since around 80% of the votes are cast in West Germany and the CDU has not much to lose in East Germany, Stoiber's strategy (if there really is one) might in fact benefit the CDU/CSU. Or it might backfire and boost turnout (and Left Party results) in Eastern Germany.

I'm sure Stoiber hasn't digested the 2002 election results yet. After all in 2002 CDU/CSU/FDP won a tight majority in West Germany, which was offset by massive SPD gains in East Germany...
Hence he can blame the "stupid" East Germans for his defeat.


And again we do not talk about the really important issues...

[CO-OWL]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

Merkel has now ruled out an military option too. I think she said literally, that there´s no difference between her and Schröder´s stance on the issue.

Politically, this was perhaps the best move, because it doesn´t give Schröder the opportunity to attack Merkel on Iran anymore. The question is if the voters will believe her.

Clever. Seriously, the U.S. isn't expecting Germany to help with any military operations whatsoever, so why this is even an issue over there is beyond me.

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

[CO-OWL]

Just to point out how illogical Stoiber´s remarks about the east are:

All eastern states PLUS Berlin (where not all voters could be counted as "East German" btw) have a total population of 16.9 million people (my numbers are from late 2003).

The western state of Northrhine-Westphalia has a population of about 18.1 million people. Like in the eastern states a majority of the voters there (51.9%... compared to the 44.5% in the east) voted for SPD and Greens.

So, why doesn´t Stoiber blame the Northrhine-Westphalians for his 2002 defeat? This single state has a larger population than the complete east and they voted for SPD/Greens too (and the voter turnout in western states like NRW is usually higher than in the east anyway). Answer: Bashing Northrhine-Westphalians doesn´t help your party at the polls.

I agree. You run for Chancellor of a united Germany, you have to get votes everywhere. If it wanted to the West could easily outvote the East. One vote is one vote, whether it's cast in Brandenburg, Lower Saxony or Bavaria. (except for overhang seats, of course)


It would be interesting to see Stoiber's reactions if overhang seats from, say Saxony and Thuringia would create a CDU/CSU/FDP majority.

[CO-OWL]

Lies have short legs...

[CO-OWL]

Some people in the SPD seem to be really desperate...



The text says: "She [Angela Merkel] would have sent soldiers [to Iraq]".
Rolf Schwanitz is an SPD MP from Saxony.

[CO-OWL]

New Allensbach poll released... also shows a slight advantage for CDU/FDP.

CDU/CSU 41.5%
SPD 32.5%
FDP 8%
Left Party.PDS 8.5%
Greens 7%

CDU/CSU + FDP = 49.5%
SPD + Left Party + Greens = 48%


I think that's the last poll released before the election.

[CO-OWL]

Well, I'm very surprised and very disappointed

FDP is the big surprise. CDU-CSU too

Yeah. The CDU-CSU result is crap. I think a lot of traditional CDU-voters gave their first vote to the CDU-candidate and their second vote to the FDP-list. To show their support of a black-yellow coalition.

True. They've just shown a poll stating that 41% of FDP voters like the CDU/CSU best.

[CO-OWL]

Which coalition would you guys like to see?

A stable one, working within a month...
Any coalition without Gerhard Schröder!

Among the realistic choices I would prefer a grand coalition. A "Jamaica coalition" would be interesting, but I simply cannot imagine CSU and Greens in the same government (not to speak of FDP-Greens conflicts and issues like nuclear power, Turkey, economic reforms etc.).

[CO-OWL]

Btw, I will officially consider the election won if CDU/FDP is closer to SPD/Greens than SPD/Greens/Left

Victory!

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Oh, er, well... whatever. I'll ignore that part, and claim victory anyways.

You sound like a ... politician.

[CO-OWL]

The "official" colour of the CDU is actually orange.

No it's not. That was their official election colour not their party colour. Their party colour always has been, and will remain, black. They chose orange for the campaign because an ad agency said that it would look better and stand out more than black, IIRC.

The traditional colour of the CDU/CSU is indeed black (I guess dating back to the old Centrist Party and the Catholic church). CDU/CSU supporters are called "the Blacks" ("die Schwarzen") as SPD supporters are "the Reds" ("die Roten").
Blue is often used in maps and charts to represent the CDU/CSU (I think it's more suitable as a background colour and to show different shades of a colour).
In recent campaigns the CDU has used orange as their official election colour. The CSU has applied blue for this purpose (blue and white being the colours of Bavaria).

[CO-OWL]

So, here's my take on what scenarios are possible.

1) The CDU accepts Gerhard Schröder as Chancellor in a grand coalition.

Very unlikely.

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I agree, that are the most likely options. The question is: Would it last for four years?

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Unlikely.

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Interesting, but the Green base wouldn't tolerate it. But in the next years we'll see a CDU-Green(perhaps -FDP) coalition on the state level.

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Can't see it at the moment. The FDP would have to find a very convincing excuse. But if options 1)-5) fail, who knows...

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I think public opinion will press the parties to agree on a stable coalition. IMHO all three options would lead to early elections within a few months.

[CO-OWL]

SPD and CDU/CSU negotiaters have finally agreed on a coalition contract. Party conferences have to approve it on Monday; Angela Merkel shall be  elected chancellor by the Bundestag on Nov. 22nd.
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,384457,00.html