Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It would seem to me that Cruz would be the third choice for Maine residents behind Trump and Kasich.  I'm interested to see the results.  It would be an upset if Cruz can pull it off.  It would show that Trump may be losing his luster among the GOP.

Or just that he's bad at caucuses when he doesn't have his Vegas buddies to crack heads.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Honestly, Maine was always seen as the safest _trump state tonight,

Uh... LA should be way safer for Trump than ME.

Why?

Black Belt + Cajun Country in Louisiana while Trump's weak in upper New England (maxes out at ~35% there).

Yeah, the wins in New Hampshire and Vermont obscure the fact that he really wasn't all that strong there all told, and Vermont in particular was a drastic underperformance. He also got weaker the further west you got in Massachusetts.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This could wind up being a reasonably good night for Trump if he wins Kentucky and Louisiana. I think that because I still think that many in the establishment would sooner embrace Trump than Cruz.

no, trump is underperforming in every state that is reporting so far.

and he is losing precious delegates as we speak.

The early states seemed to give him the expected numbers.

Nobody expected trump to lose maine. Indeed, go look at the prediction thread.

It's still not called yet.

DDHQ called it.

Oldiesfreak is...a bit weird about calling or not calling things.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Kasich doing nicely in northern KY. Maybe it's his moment to be the "third place champion" a la Rubio?

CAN'T LASIK THE KASICH

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

As I said in IRC, regardless of the outcome, the LA call was way too early.

But how do you conclude that? They call it when they're confident someone will win, not when they're confident it won't tighten significantly. They know what they're doing.

Let's dispel the fiction that the news media know what they're doing. They have no idea what they're doing.

The stats people working behind the scenes on election nights do know what they're doing, and it's validated by the fact that their calls are virtually never wrong, even when people debate on here that this that or the other call may be premature.

but

muh 2000