US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Dgov]

The leaked republican map looks very good.  That's how I think we should do redistricting-- avoid overreaching.  If they wanted to I bet they could have drawn a 10-4 map.

The comments by the Democrat in that article are paper thin.  Who gives a #### if Obama got 57% in Michigan.  9 Republicans were duly elected in that 57% Obama state.  The Dem areas are the areas losing population. It's just that they take the loss.  

9R 5D Michigan is a success

Granted, that is due to a previous R Gerrymander, but the way the state's demographics is also to blame.  Take out Wayne county and the state goes to like 52:47 Obama, and even then the Democrats are heavily concentrated in Flin, Ann Arbor, and Lansing.  Most of the State is like 50-55% Republican outside of the urban areas.

[Dgov]

MI-09, the Levin CD, is more Dem rather than less?  Are you sure Johnny?

That's less Dem than MI-12, which it basically is. Makes sense as it drops blacks.

What is the PVI of a Flint to Lansing Connection?

it would be about 72% Obama (Assuming you also took it up to Saginaw), so D + 18 or D + 19

[Dgov]

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

Well, it doesn't fit anywhere else.  Grand Rapids to the West, the Tri-cities/Flint to the North East, and South-central MI to the South.  Each of those areas has its own district that is a pretty good COI, so Lansing gets shafted and shoved with the extra Detroit Burbs.  Its of course drawn in a way to make it an R seat, but its not like they're just trying to spite the city.

[Dgov]

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

Well, it doesn't fit anywhere else.  Grand Rapids to the West, the Tri-cities/Flint to the North East, and South-central MI to the South.  Each of those areas has its own district that is a pretty good COI, so Lansing gets shafted and shoved with the extra Detroit Burbs.  Its of course drawn in a way to make it an R seat, but its not like they're just trying to spite the city.

Ummm... No? You're being a partisan hack? The Lansing metro (Ingham, Eaton, Shiawassee, Clinton) is much, much clearer community of interest than "random small cities plus parts of Lansing and some suburbs" that MI-07 consists of.

No---Try it.  The way Michigan is drawn demographically, someone has to get screwed---Republicans draw the map so Republicans screw the easiest (and Safest) section.

Take a look at BRTD's map if you want to see what i mean.  Creating a Lansing-district screws over a bunch of other people by sucking up all the extra central MI population.  Its not like Putting Lansing with Livingston is any less odd than putting Livingston with Flint and Suburban Macomb with Bay City.

[Dgov]

There actually is an alternative to either splitting Lansing (self-forbidding if you've got any respect for good governance at all) or drawing an additional Democratic seat. Torie explored it earlier on the incorrect data. Create a Flint-and-Lansing Dem pack. Not saying that's nice, of course, but it's probably preferable to the status quo if you're from Lansing.

Wouldn't it be easier to do a Lansing-Ann Arbor Pack?  Saginaw and Bay City are probably Too Democratic to put both in a Republican district, so the 5th is doing pretty good as is.  The current 15th on the other hand takes in plenty of only slightly D territory south of Detroit, and Washtenew county is what makes it safe D.  Hell, draw an Ann-arbor Lansing Pack and then take the 8th towards the southern 55% Obama parts of Wayne/Monroe county currently in the 15th while the 11th can then take the Republican part of Oakland county currently in the 8th.