Turkey General election - November 1st 2015 (user search)
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  Turkey General election - November 1st 2015 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Turkey General election - November 1st 2015  (Read 21036 times)
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,010
United States


« on: August 14, 2015, 05:35:53 AM »

What a stupid disagreement. I don't think I've ever seen a situation like this before where the largest party is calling for an election because they're refusing the offer of coalition support. More proof the AKP is power mad.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,010
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2015, 02:06:20 PM »

To be fair the MHP is a particularly nasty group that would push any sense of meaningful resolution to The Kurd Crisis into an ever less likely position.

Current government policy couldn't be more anti-Kurd. I doubt that is the AKP's concern.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,010
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2015, 04:23:38 PM »
« Edited: August 15, 2015, 04:25:13 PM by Famous Mortimer »

My (admittedly baseless) suspicion is that a second election would see a flow of MHP votes toward the AKP in the interests of stability. It's not as if there's any other possible governing party; the notion of a CHP government is absurd. With whom would they govern, the Kurds?


I said to Adam T in the Canada thread that these sorts of posts aren't constructive on an elections board, and I'll be consistent and say it again here.

What a stupid disagreement. I don't think I've ever seen a situation like this before where the largest party is calling for an election because they're refusing the offer of coalition support. More proof the AKP is power mad.

This is preposterous. It would be akin to accusing the Moderate Party of being "power mad" for refusing to go into coalition with the Sweden Democrats. I'm not sure what exactly it is about Turkey that causes such mass hysteria.

MHP are not the Sweden Democrats. MHP has sat in centre-left coalitions before. Also, unlike the SDs, Justice and Development was perfectly willing to accept outside support from the MHP, so their objection obviously isn't that MHP is too extreme.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,010
United States


« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2015, 12:21:47 AM »
« Edited: August 18, 2015, 01:11:03 AM by Famous Mortimer »

I know nothing about Turkish politics.

Can someone give a brief explanation of the major parties, issues, demographics etc?

Justice and Development Party (AKP) - started as a moderate splinter of the Welfare Party, an Islamist party that briefly held power in the 90s before being banned under pressure from the military. Originally they presented themselves as the Muslim equivalent of Christian democratic parties in Europe. Lately though, they have been becoming increasingly authoritarian and conservative. In terms of economics, they are fairly statist, having undertaken many public works projects. Their base is the rural poor although they have a significant amount of support in Istanbul as well, where President Ergodan was mayor. Comparable parties: Somewhere between Merkel's CDU and United Russia.

Republican People's Party (CHP) - traces its history back to the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The party's main ideology is Kemalism, which means secularism, respect for the military's role in politics, and a form of nationalism that rejects ethnicity (ie Kurdish desire to break away) Today the party is also nominally social democratic but that means less in Turkey even than it does in Europe. However, under the current leader, there has been some attempt to change that, to make it a more generic social democratic party and to drop the support for the military and (even less successfully so far) the opposition to Kurdish nationalism. Its main base of support is the big cities of Istanbul and Ankara and along the coasts, as well as around military bases and universities. Comparable parties: Maybe PASOK.

Nationalist Action Party, alternatively translated as Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) - Started as the political wing of the Grey Wolves, a right-wing paramilitary active during the 70s which carried out several terrorist attacks back and forth against Communist groups. They were likely funded by the military and eventually the military stepped in to solve the fighting by having a coup and banning all political activity in 1980. The Grey Wolves were also likely funded by NATO as a contingency plan against a possible Communist take over of Turkey. With Communism no longer an issue, the party is primarily focused on opposing peace with the Kurds, pissing off Armenia, and the fantastical plans to merge with Azerbajian and Turkmenistan. Also, just in the last campaign, it embraced a sort of soft Islamism, after years of being secular to ambivalent. I have no idea what demographic this party attracts. No one seems to know. Presumably right-wingers who don't like Erdogan for whatever reason. Comparable parties: The Serbian Radical Party or one of those Slovak nationalist parties that propped up the social democratic government there.

People's Democratic Party (HDP) - Just like Islamist parties, Turkey has a long history of banning Kurdish parties which only come back and reform under a new name right after being banned. The latest is the People's Democratic Party. It's a little bit different in that it has made a legitimately attempt to appeal to non-Kurds. It has the most left-wing platform, both economically and socially, of any major party. Not only does it have quotas for the number of women candidates it fields, it even has a quota for gay candidates. Its main base is Kurdish areas (obviously) but it also does well in hipster parts of Istanbul. Comparable parties: SYRIZA, PODEMOS.

No other party came close to passing the insanely high 10% threshold in the last election but a couple of other historically significant parties are the Democratic Party (conservative party who were either moderate Kemalists or moderate Islamists who feign Kemalism), the Democratic Left Party (more explicitly social democrat, less pro-military splinter from the Republican People's Party), and the Felicity Party (representing the more hardcore wing of the banned Welfare Party).
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,010
United States


« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2015, 04:46:57 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2015, 04:54:47 AM by Famous Mortimer »

Yeah, the AKP would win a massively landslide. That's pretty obvious.

A more interesting question is who would take the CHP's votes. Probably some would go to the MHP, some to the HDP and some to the Democratic Left Party or maybe even the Anatolia Party (CHP splinter which opposed shift from Kemalism to social democracy). CHP voters are, after all, not very attached to the party. It was replaced by the Democratic Left Party and out of parliament for a good chunk of the 90s.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,010
United States


« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2015, 06:16:51 AM »

While the Turkish government is obviously insane, the Turkish far-left are behaving like idiots. The US would like to remain neutral but they're being pushed into backing the government via all these bombings.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,010
United States


« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2015, 10:26:24 PM »

Metropoll�

AKP   41.7
CHP   25.5
MHP   15.7
HDP   14.7

There is talk that this time AKP will ally with Saadet Party or BBP or both.  Together they won 2.06% of the vote in the last election.

Saadet Party is the Felicity Party, the more hardcore wing of the old National Order/Welfare/Virtue Party from which AKP itself emerged. So it would basically be a reunification of the Necmettin Erbakan/Milli Görüş movement.

BBP is the Great Union Party an explicitly Islamist breakaway of the Nationalist Movement Party.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,010
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2015, 03:24:22 PM »

Not to mention the MHP's campaign was fairly Islam-y last time.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,010
United States


« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2015, 09:17:56 PM »

Did CHP voters in Kurdistan switch to AKP?
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