GA: Rasmussen: Chambliss 48, Martin 43, Buckley (L) 7

[Sam Spade]

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Rasmussen on 2008-10-30

Summary: D: 43%, R: 48%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Topline Numbers

Chambliss 48

Martin 43

Buckley (L) 7

Undecided 2

[Sam Spade]

Buckley (L) 7

Doubt it.  Regardless, it's looking like a runoff in which most of those voting for the Libertarian migrate to Chambliss.  Unless Martin gets basically all the Libertarian voters, Chambliss wins.

runoff turnout will/would be much much less than general election turnout, so it is all about building a better operation in your parts of the state than the other guy.  look at what Ciro did in TX-23.  (I don't think turnout dropoff will be as big here as it was there, as this will get more national attention, but the point stands)

The question in my mind is whether the blacks will show up in such high numbers.

[Sam Spade]

Internals? How much to the black vote is each candidate getting?

Martin - 88D-5R-6L-1NS

I doubt 6% will vote for the Libertarian, but that's only like a 2% shift in the numbers, max.

[Sam Spade]

Martin - 88D-5R-6L-1NS

Do they break down the internals by race? That's what I'm most interested in.

That is the internals for blacks.

Chambliss leads 68-24 among whites.

[Sam Spade]

Martin needs close to 95% of blacks for him to win this race outright. 88% is not going to cut it.

95% of blacks may get him above Chambliss, but it won't get him above 50%.