Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019 (user search)
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  Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019  (Read 21109 times)
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

« on: May 18, 2019, 09:29:34 AM »

If polls are wrong, it is in no small part thanks to changes in electoral sociology, living arrangements, methods of communication and media consumption habits which make it much harder to pollsters to get it right by using their traditional models.

If you think that it is a simple case of pollsters always over/underpolling one side, deliberately or not, then it is because you have no idea of how polling actually works (in part because it is hardly in the pollsters own interests to always get it wrong - their own financial viability relies on actually being vaguely credible).
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2019, 05:59:18 AM »

Quote
tl;dr: We on the left need to take concerns about immigration and about excessive societal liberalism serious again, or we will become the ideology of the white upper middle class and not of main street. You insinuating that these voters are are all coldhearted, evil or intolerant or whatever is exactly what has gotten us in this mess.  

I'm a proponent of taking these concerns more seriously in the contexts of most developed countries, but in the case of Australia the Overton window on immigration/nationalism/national identity-type issues strikes me as being so far to the right already that surely there has to be some sort of limit. Again, I stand corrected about the extent to which that contributed to this result.

I dunno, people forget that it often has been leftist governments that have put restrictive laws on immigration in place; and attempts to play that game have often seemed to have backfired, seeing as you can't really outdo the populist right on the issue, but at the same time talking about immigration like it is a problem merely serves to validate the idea that it is one.

I mean, it's one thing to respond to people's concerns or whatever, but what the left does well; and what it is supposed to be about; is fighting for equality and sticking up for the vulnerable and the less powerful. So if you go and undermine your own values (especially in an era where having values seems increasingly important in electoral politics) just to fulfil some narrative about how "white working class" voters are all apparently xenophobic; I don't think that ends well to be honest.

probably a point for a different thread though.
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2019, 04:14:22 AM »

Labor losing its Base:


TPP swing in the Sydney area (blue towards the Coalition, red to labor):


compared to the SSM survey:


Its nice to know this realignment if happening across the world /s

The analysis this came from shows that this realignment is occuring across the board. With wealthier suburbs swinging to Labor and poorer/working class areas swinging to the Coalition.
 If this keeps going on then we'll become like Israel who was a trend starter since the 1980s with the middle class ashkenazi voting for left leaning parties and working class aka: mizrahi voting for the right due to nationalism/identity being more important than economic policy.

This is really not a global trend. Inner City minority heavy suburbs like Cabramatta or Bankstown swining right is really not something we are seeing in most of the rest of the world
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