VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Considering Northam trouble was always going to be motivating the base the high turnout suggests he's in a good position

[Hindsight was 2020]

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Yup Gillespie gonna win. Minorities aren't voting

12% at 9 am is good

[Hindsight was 2020]

According to Daily Kos he is a well known virignia political blogger

This is accurate, but these people can get excited, too. Looking at this recent tweet—how can he know this? "One other interesting thing- NOVA R base has always been nat security heavy (Pentagon, def contractors, CIA, etc). They dont seem R today."

he explained "The reason I say that- those are usually the voters stacked at 6 am in the outer suburbs to vote first and not seen much today"

[Hindsight was 2020]

Might be early but my prediction is Ed will jump out to an early lead due to rural reporting first leading to some over actions but by 10:30 thanks to NOVA Ralph will win

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not all of the estimates are comparable. Some include absentees, others do not. Everyone should exercise more caution before jumping to conclusions, either way.

Turnout was a big factor in why T-Mac almost lost in 2013 so higher turnout is a good sign for Ralph

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not all of the estimates are comparable. Some include absentees, others do not. Everyone should exercise more caution before jumping to conclusions, either way.

Turnout was a big factor in why T-Mac almost lost in 2013 so higher turnout is a good sign for Ed

Haha.

Sorry I meant Ralph

[Hindsight was 2020]

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https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/927943269962698752

[Hindsight was 2020]

People one the ground are making it sound like Ralph is heading to a typical 3-5% win from NOVA

[Hindsight was 2020]

A story going around social media is Northam is being helped by downballot races

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh my god it's the election all over again?!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Have to say the hot takes and panic in this thread is utterly ridiculous

Oh my god it's the election all over again?!

No people are being gullible to idiots on twitter

I know I'm messing

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

Him also claiming to know the margin from the absentees seems like junk

Agree 100%. He went from somewhere like Northam +100K to Northam +65K to Northam +35K in three hours. He's laughable.

Yeah we have the same #'s and rural Trump areas did not start doing massively better in a few hours

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hype after 9am turnout reports, panicing after some dubious reports about rain that will destroy turnout (it may be lower few percents in some places)...
Northam wins by 5% at least.

pretty much

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Trump gloating tomorrow will be insufferable.

Dude stop it you're seriously overacting

[Hindsight was 2020]

2016 really broke people

[Hindsight was 2020]

Tribbett is very well connected the guy knows his #'s, if he says somethings wrong then you listen.

Did you even read his post? He clearly is forgetting about the 5 pm rush

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ben Tribbett is back on the Northam train

[Hindsight was 2020]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

The only think from tonight that should scare reps when it pretains to 2018 is LoBiondo retiring

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ugh why are we hearing nothing from SWVA counties for all we know they could be having Presidential level turnout.

Their was a guy posting on Twitter that had Southern #'s and last I heard it was doing okay but not well enough to beat NOVA

[Hindsight was 2020]

Like I said okay but not good enough. Ed somehow has to do really well with NOVA to win and no one on the ground has seen any signs of this

[Hindsight was 2020]

Northam by the same margin as Mac isn't a great result for Northam. What Dems should see -- and what is otherwise probably attributable to local differences or the genuine success of the anti-sanctuary plan -- is Northam up by 10.

2016 Congress was Republicans by 1 point. If Democrats hit their polling for 'generic ballot' they should be up in the range of 9.

Northam by 2 shows the atmosphere hasn't significantly changed -- in Virginia, a swing state -- from 2013 to 2017. That's not good news, not the type of sweeping news the Dems want to hear.

Okay I guess I'll be the one. Govenor races don't say anything about midterms

[Hindsight was 2020]

When in gods name has 43/57 been good?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Here we go. Gillespie win imminent.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/928043886039183362

It's a goddamn Jeb meme

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Jeff guy on twitter is giving me a heart attack, only way EG gets an upset it he's doing better in NoVA.

It's a Jeb! Joke

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well the CNN report wasn't that they fear a strong turnout but more about being blindsided again by rural turnout like 2016 but the few numbers we have don't suggest it