Italy 2019 by Camera single-member constituencies.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is a project I've been working on for some time, beginning even before I joined Talk Elections.

Basically analyzing the results of the 2019 European election in Italy by current Camera single-member constituencies (although they of course aren't used for European elections), which have the benefit of giving a greater and more uniform level of detail than provinces, and a much more uniform and much less noisy level of detail than municipalities.

A couple things before we start:
- I wasn't able to calculate the exact results for some constituencies in large cities which are split among more than one - precisely Rome, Palermo and Bari, because their websites suck. I applied a municipality-wise uniform swing to get an idea but in practice I didn't bother to colour anything where I felt iffy about the margin of error
- I approximated things at one decimal point and then forgot about the raw results (bad decision in hindsight, but I'm not going to start this thing from scratch again) which may give slight imprecisions in composite maps. Maybe I could also tell you the expected order of magnitude of said imprecisions... but that assumes I actually followed my Numerical Analysis lessons
- In general I think my maps will not be particularly high quality compared to other works I've seen on here (especially by Al; he's just masterful with this stuff)

I'd like to receive some preliminary feedback before going on with my first map, which will inevitably be Winning Party List by Constituency.



EDIT: A big thanks to MRCVzla for helping me filling in the gaps and imprecisions.

[MRCVzla]

I internally did exactly the same project (mainly to make a swing-o-meter between the parties and the coalitions), the data from Rome and Palermo I managed to reel off from their Open Data (and some xml to csv/plain text converters) and combining the electoral sections with those used in the 2018 elections, Bari it's difficult since only preference votes data were available on its Open Data page, I had to extrapolate them to the results of the commune and add them along with the corresponding single-member constituencies.

I even have in Excel a modification to the results by comune (municipality) that are downloaded on the "Viminale" website and it took me time to add to which circumscription of Camera, Senato and even Matarellum (the electoral law of 1993-2005)* corresponded for easy searching, always in raw data. Maybe I'll pass it on later by Google Drive or something.

Even being very recent, I have not made the distribution of how the data would be with the new boundaries of the constituencies after the reduction of parliamentarians that were made public a few weeks ago, I have it pending.

Obviously in the results by coalitions, the result varies a little according to how one qualifies the Centrosinistra coalition, including or not in them "La Sinistra" list. I recommend to separate the votes of South Tyrol autonomists' SVP (as did the YouTrend' simulation), although they are historical allies of the CSX, they are in a coalition government with the Lega in Trentino and in these EP elections their votes were linked to Forza Italia' list totals, their votes are key to balance the Trento constituency in favor of any of the 2 blocks. As for the Aosta Valley list, it is qualified within the CSX since its votes were linked to the PD list and almost all the parties that made up the alliance were also with PD in a coalition in the 2018 elections.

*The projection with the Matarellum who i done is incomplete, some large cities in the South (and some in Tuscany) or even Trieste do not have the data available by electoral section in the Open Data of the EP election (or even the 2018 election), but I made an advance in the big cities.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

- snipped -

Great stuff!
To be honest, Palermo and Bari don't bother me that much. Rome is a sore spot though.
I have approximately zero intention to repeat the process again for Senate constituencies, since it's going to be boring as hell and a doublet for the most part.
I am not going to consider SVP part of any coalition, but I consider the Aosta Valley regional list together with PD.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Anyway, this is the Winning Party List by Constituency map.



Lega
Partito Democratico
Movimento 5 Stelle
Forza Italia
Südtiroler Volkspartei

[Former President tack50]

My thoughts:

1) Wow, Lega won a landslide. They even won seats in southern Italy.

2) Who still votes for Berlusconi's party and why are all his diehard loyalists in northeast Sicilly?

3) What is the white party in the Rome suburbs? FdI?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

My thoughts:

1) Wow, Lega won a landslide. They even won seats in southern Italy.

2) Who still votes for Berlusconi's party and why are all his diehard loyalists in northeast Sicilly?

3) What is the white party in the Rome suburbs? FdI?

1) Well yes, it also had a fairly optimized distribution of the vote.

2) Not many people, but they exist, especially in the South. The province of Messina is historically a pretty right-wing area, and there is some local candidates/administrators thing involved but right now I don't remember the details. I should note that the other rural constituencies in Northern Sicily all had (relatively) very high shares for FI as well.

3) Please read my original post, especially the part where I say that I didn't bother to colour anything where I was iffy on the margins.

[Mike Thick]

This is really cool! That one FI constituency in Sicily, lol. And the Tirolers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, this is the Winning Party List by Constituency map.



Lega
Partito Democratico
Movimento 5 Stelle
Forza Italia
Südtiroler Volkspartei

Excellent work, thank you!

I'm genuinely baffled that PD won the Reggio Calabria constituency. This is the most right-wing part of Calabria, which is a pretty right-wing region these days. It's the only PD win anywhere in the South (and, aside from that one Sardinia constituency, the only win outside of the Red Regions and big cities). What happened there? Did Lega, FdI and FI split the right-wing vote almost evenly so PD won a narrow plurality?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Excellent work, thank you!

I'm genuinely baffled that PD won the Reggio Calabria constituency. This is the most right-wing part of Calabria, which is a pretty right-wing region these days. It's the only PD win anywhere in the South (and, aside from that one Sardinia constituency, the only win outside of the Red Regions and big cities). What happened there? Did Lega, FdI and FI split the right-wing vote almost evenly so PD won a narrow plurality?

Thank you!

They didn't exactly split the right-wing vote evenly, but FI and FdI still took away enough of it combined with a small but real overperformance by PD in the city of Reggio Calabria and even in some of the surrounding municipalities to have a PD plurality. To be fair right now the most right-wing part of Calabria is probably Vibo Valentia/Gioia Tauro (notice the two Lega constituencies, but also FdI took like 17% in the Vibo Valentia one).
Palermo Centre and Bari Centre may have been won by PD but I left them blank because of the reasons explained in the OP. It didn't win any constituency in Naples though, because M5S was just so effing strong - though it sure as hell won neighbourhoods such as Vomero and Chiaia in a landslide. There's something sweet and sour about BourgEoiS Naples voting PD, ProLetariAn Naples voting M5S, and the right-wing being either crickets or very splintered.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They didn't exactly split the right-wing vote evenly, but FI and FdI still took away enough of it combined with a small but real overperformance by PD in the city of Reggio Calabria and even in some of the surrounding municipalities to have a PD plurality. To be fair right now the most right-wing part of Calabria is probably Vibo Valentia/Gioia Tauro (notice the two Lega constituencies, but also FdI took like 17% in the Vibo Valentia one).

Right, I means Southern Calabria as a whole. If you'd told me a Calabria constituency had voted PD I would have guessed the Cosenza one. The left also surprisingly held the RC mayorship a few months ago (although there might have been actual voter fraud involved there so who knows), so maybe the area is genuinely trending left? No idea what to make of it if so. But if the trend extends all the way to Melito I'll be very happy.

Palermo Centre and Bari Centre may have been won by PD but I left them blank because of the reasons explained in the OP. It didn't win any constituency in Naples though, because M5S was just so effing strong - though it sure as hell won neighbourhoods such as Vomero and Chiaia in a landslide. There's something sweet and sour about BourgEoiS Naples voting PD, ProLetariAn Naples voting M5S, and the right-wing being either crickets or very splintered.

The Virgin Biden/Collins Swing Voter and the Chad Di Maio/De Luca Swing Voter

[MRCVzla]

To help something, in the data I have from Rome (corrected because the results differs a little bit between the Rome comune and the Ministry of the Interior sites), of the 11 districts, the PD (and the csx) leads in the 4 centrical districts that won in 2018 (Trionfale, Montesacro, Ardeatino and Gianicolense), PD also leads (with a margin of almost 5000 votes to Lega) in the Tuscolano district where M5S was the most voted in 2018, in the coalition part depends how counts Sinistra list with Csx, without them Cdx leads with +700 votes.

In the other constituencies around the city they were lead by both Lega and the center-right.

Both in the central districts of Palermo and Bari the M5S leads as a party list, but in coalitions, in Bari won the center-right meanwhile in Palermo Centro leads the center-left.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

To help something, in the data I have from Rome (corrected because the results differs a little bit between the Rome comune and the Ministry of the Interior sites), of the 11 districts, the PD (and the csx) leads in the 4 centrical districts that won in 2018 (Trionfale, Montesacro, Ardeatino and Gianicolense), PD also leads (with a margin of almost 5000 votes to Lega) in the Tuscolano district where M5S was the most voted in 2018, in the coalition part depends how counts Sinistra list with Csx, without them Cdx leads with +700 votes.

In the other constituencies around the city they were lead by both Lega and the center-right.

Both in the central districts of Palermo and Bari the M5S leads as a party list, but in coalitions, in Bari won the center-right meanwhile in Palermo Centro leads the center-left.

Thank you!

None of that is surprising except for the contrast between Palermo Centro and Bari (like, what?).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I updated and filled the gaps in my first map with the data contributed for by MRCVzla and hope to do so for the others as well.

And with this we can fully say that the 2019 party map actually doesn't look that much different from the 2018 coalition map, except for some semi-central constituencies in big cities, the epic switch from M5S to Lega of basically almost all the South-Centre fringe plus much of Apulia, and some random bits otherwise, precisely: Bolzano ugh (thanks, SVP!), Aosta being Aosta, Collegno, Forlì (sigh), the lol tier PD pluralities in Cagliari and Reggio Calabria, and the LOL tier FI plurality in Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto / rural NE Sicily.
Of course this will likely look quite different when calculating results by coalitions, where M5S stands to lose a lot. Speaking of which, I have a surprise map to show before I'll go on with the 'proper' coalitions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The PD getting trounced across the board yet somehow managing to top the poll in Reggio is genuinely hilarious.

[H. Ross Peron]

Excluding M5S for the moment, did the "right" coalition beat the "left" coalition in any of the major North Italian cities such as Genoa, Turin, and Milan?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The PD getting trounced across the board yet somehow managing to top the poll in Reggio is genuinely hilarious.

Well it got trounced across the board in a relative sense. If we repeated the election today PD would likely take the same share of the vote and actually a bit less but carry more areas of any type because Lega has ceded a lot of right-wing vote to FdI.

Excluding M5S for the moment, did the "right" coalition beat the "left" coalition in any of the major North Italian cities such as Genoa, Turin, and Milan?

Turin was carried by the centre-left by ~3 points (0.5 excluding La Sinistra)
Genoa was carried by the centre-left by a hair (centre-right +2 excluding La Sinistra)
Milan was carried by the centre-left by ~4 points (2 excluding La Sinistra)
Bologna is self-evident.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As promised, a surprise: Conte I Coalition (Lega + M5S) performance by Constituency map.



#Populist (Conte I >50%)
#Elitist (Conte I <50%)
Südtiroler Volkspartei >50%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I should note that there's a huge glut of constituencies where Lega and M5S combined garnered more than 50% but less than their national average of 51.4% - including mine of La Spezia. If I coloured them in red as well there would be more red around Turin, around Milan, between Naples and Salerno, in random parts of the rural South, and in the Red Region fringe.

Also in the Rovereto and Gorizia constituencies I think Lega and M5S very narrowly beat Everyone Else if one excludes SVP from the calculations, but I kept them in red anyways because SVP was clearly in the opposition. I only coloured the two German-majority South Tyrol constituencies in grey and not in red because the fact that SVP easily cleared 50% makes them qualitatively different from anywhere else.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

While doing coalition calculations I found out I must have screwed up some precinct in Western Genoa and that the Liguria - 03 constituency was apparently narrowly carried by Lega and not by PD - list map edited accordingly.

Anyway, I am not sure when I will post the coalition map. I think this thread will occupy a relatively long period of time.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Winning 'Ideological' Coalition by Constituency map:



Centre-right (Lega - FI - FdI)
Centre-left (PD - +E - EV - LS)
Movimento 5 Stelle
Südtiroler Volkspartei

You will excuse my (partial) choice of considering The Left as part of the centre-left coalition.

[Former President tack50]

Yikes that is brutal

Apparently Naples is the strongest place for M5S? (and that one constituency in Sicilly)

The centre-left seems to have a stronger (or at least more varied) hardcore base, getting seats in what seems to be Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany; "downtown" Rome, Milan, Genoa and Turín.

Beyond that it's clean sweeps for the right everywhere

[Antonio the Sixth]

Eesh. Brutal indeed.

Gotta hope the next GE isn't quite such a bloodbath. Now if PD and M5S were able to change the electoral law...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Yikes that is brutal

Apparently Naples is the strongest place for M5S? (and that one constituency in Sicilly)

The centre-left seems to have a stronger (or at least more varied) hardcore base, getting seats in what seems to be Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany; "downtown" Rome, Milan, Genoa and Turín.

Beyond that it's clean sweeps for the right everywhere

Siracusa bemuses me, but yeah, obviously the Naples area is ground zero for M5S. It took 52% of the vote alone in Napoli Ponticelli (eastern part of the city - right to the east of the two constituencies won by the centre-left) for goodness' sake!

I am thinking I will later add maps shaded by winning percentage, by the way, which will cast more light on the internal diversity of that clean sweep.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Winning Party List Revisited.



With percentages:

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Winning 'Ideological' Coalition Revisited.



With percentages: