Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[smoltchanov]

Glad to see that Edwards has won reelection. We need more Democrats like him.

+100. Democratic (as well as Republican) candidates in different states must be different too. VERY glad, that Edwards won.

[smoltchanov]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

1. HD-105 Nut - lost HD-50, so it's a wash today (Democrats lost 5-6 sets in October, and couple - in state Senate)

[smoltchanov]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

Yeah. But Democratic collapse in Acadiana and vicinities is also notable

[smoltchanov]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

Substantial. There are at least 3 relatively consrervative Democrats in Louisiana House (not so much as Republicans, but - still), and 1 Indie is also conservative-leaning.

[smoltchanov]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

I'm in no position to commentate, but like in much of the deep south, Louisiana's democratic caucus is now dominated by African Americans. GOP packing of the AA vote and the collapse of rural whites mean all that are  left are the committed AA core - who are the least likely of any demographic to vote with the GOP on day to day issues.

Thompson? Brown? White? At least 3 with decidedly conservative leanings. Other 5 (by my count) remaining white Democrats are, probably, more liberal.

[smoltchanov]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

Depends on the bill — for a social issue like abortion (hypothetically, of course, since Edwards is pro-life), probably wouldn’t be too tough. For something like cutting TOPS or redistricting? Never gonna happen.

Not on Medicaid either then, I assume. Very good to know.

Probably - no. Louisiana Democrats are very frequently socially conservative, but, usually, more liberal (or, at least - moderate) on economy. Those, who were economicaly conservative too, became Republicans at least decade ago.

[smoltchanov]

Would Scalise or Kennedy have won?

Probably - yes. Kennedy - almost sure, Scalise - possibly too

[smoltchanov]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

I'm in no position to commentate, but like in much of the deep south, Louisiana's democratic caucus is now dominated by African Americans. GOP packing of the AA vote and the collapse of rural whites mean all that are  left are the committed AA legislative core - who are the least likely of any demographic to vote with the GOP on day to day issues.

Yes, but (in reference to what was mentioned above) you haven't seen the types of shenanigans that can occur (and have occurred) behind closed doors post-VRA in the South between the GOP and black EOs with regard to situations such as reapportionment. I could totally see JBE's reapportionment veto getting overridden if there are a couple of legislators in black-majority districts who would like to go from "remotely-competitive-in-worst-case-scenario 55% black districts" to "never-have-to-run-another-primary-or-general-election-campaign 60-65% black districts" - and the GOP will be all too willing to accommodate.

Oh, yes! Personal interests almost always trump everything else. Human nature)))

[smoltchanov]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

Pretty much any Democrat is going to get clobbered in the rural areas, and is going to rely on the cities/suburbs to win. This idea that "swing voters" care about ideology, or that a large number of Republicans and "moderates" will vote for Biden with a spring in their step but flock to Trump if Warren is the nominee (while Democratic/progressive turnout isn't stronger for Warren) is ludicrous. Democrats win by being authentic and standing by their principles, not simply being "moderate."

Show me at least one "real progressive" Democrat winning statewide in Louisiana. Or Mississippi. Or Alabama. Idiocy.When needed (to prevent victory of worse candidate) "principles" may be temporerily thrown into basket. Politics is "an art of compromise", not a competition who is more "principled"...

[smoltchanov]

IIRC one indy voted against the abortion ban so he's pretty liberal.

Marino - yes. Adams is an econonmic populist, but social conservative.

[smoltchanov]

Pretty much any Democrat is going to get clobbered in the rural areas, and is going to rely on the cities/suburbs to win. This idea that "swing voters" care about ideology, or that a large number of Republicans and "moderates" will vote for Biden with a spring in their step but flock to Trump if Warren is the nominee (while Democratic/progressive turnout isn't stronger for Warren) is ludicrous. Democrats win by being authentic and standing by their principles, not simply being "moderate."

During the runoff campaign for LA-SEN in 2002, when Mary Landrieu was on the verge of a reelection loss, her campaign decided to change course and put more distance between herself and the supposedly universally beloved President Bush. A lot of people thought this would hurt her, but she ended up outperforming expectations and went from 46% in the junge primary to 51.7% in the December runoff.

Still she wasn't a "flaming liberal"...

[smoltchanov]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

Pretty much any Democrat is going to get clobbered in the rural areas, and is going to rely on the cities/suburbs to win. This idea that "swing voters" care about ideology, or that a large number of Republicans and "moderates" will vote for Biden with a spring in their step but flock to Trump if Warren is the nominee (while Democratic/progressive turnout isn't stronger for Warren) is ludicrous. Democrats win by being authentic and standing by their principles, not simply being "moderate."

Show me at least one "real progressive" Democrat winning statewide in Louisiana. Or Mississippi. Or Alabama. Idiocy.

Smoltchanov is correct here ...

While the 2019 elections don’t mean a lot for 2020, there’s still some trends that are worrying about the continued urban-rural divide, which seems to deepen.

It’s concerning to me that while for us Austrians/Europeans it is pretty common sense to have a well-functioning single-payer health care system, such a radical change like Warren/Sanders are proposing would overburden much of the US electorate next year.

Americans do not want these big changes in their system and would react allergically at the polls.

That’s why a presidential candidate like Pete Buttigieg is needed with his Medicare for all who want it plan.

Fully agree. And - thanks!

[smoltchanov]

To hear Rep. Steve Scalise tell it, President Donald Trump nearly won the Louisiana governor's race all by himself.

"Eddie Rispone made up a 22-point disadvantage over the last month because of President Trump's involvement," the Louisiana Republican congressman said of the party's gubernatorial nominee. "Clearly, President Trump's involvement made a big difference at helping close that massive gap."

LMAO!

Never liked Scalise, but before this never thought about him being an idiot. Disappoined. And, interesting - what magic Trump has, that seemingly reasonable (though far different in their views from what's good in my opinion) people begin to tell such foolishness?