British Local Elections, May 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have serious doubts. That would be a massive blow to Labour and would mean every single poll was completely off.  If i was a Labour MP I would call on Starmer to resign if that came to fruition.

If Khan were to lose (which remains unlikely, though the general feeling within the Labour Party throughout has been that the result is likely to be closer than it 'ought' to be as much of Labour's local elections vote does not like Khan) then it would be on no one but himself.

[LAB-LIB]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786138663882989654

I presume this is based on recent polling trends and not on any exit polls from today?

There is no exit poll for the local elections.

[Duke of York]

I have serious doubts. That would be a massive blow to Labour and would mean every single poll was completely off.  If i was a Labour MP I would call on Starmer to resign if that came to fruition.

If Khan were to lose (which remains unlikely, though the general feeling within the Labour Party throughout has been that the result is likely to be closer than it 'ought' to be as much of Labour's local elections vote does not like Khan) then it would be on no one but himself.

why would it be on him?

[Lachi]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

[Duke of York]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

who is this Theo Usherwood? Is he reputable?

[TheTide]

This possibly might be the latest time on a local elections night that precisely nil results have been declared. I expect the first might be one of the many by-elections taking place, as was the case, IIRC, last year.

[MaxQue]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

who is this Theo Usherwood? Is he reputable?

Political editor at LBC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

why would it be on him?

Because he is the incumbent of eight years and is running on his record, much of which is controversial? And unlike most local elections, this is a post with a significant amount of media attention.

[TheTide]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

who is this Theo Usherwood? Is he reputable?

Political editor at LBC.

I think he's been quite reliable regarding parliamentary by-elections, although in this case he's not quoting anyone on the ground and the count is about two days from actually starting.

[Torrain]

who is this Theo Usherwood? Is he reputable?

Fairly reliable. He was political editor for LBC (a national radio station), but stood down a year or two ago to concentrate on a family illness. Still chips in from time to time.

He's more reliable than most at the tabloids, but may be a little more laid back these days. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This possibly might be the latest time on a local elections night that precisely nil results have been declared. I expect the first might be one of the many by-elections taking place, as was the case, IIRC, last year.

This is because all of these half-joke 'Commissioner' and 'Mayor' posts clog up time as all ballots must be sorted through and verified separately for the different elections.

[Torrain]

Hull City Council evacuated, just as counting got started.

[Torrain]

The Beeb may have put Kuenssberg in the chair, but they're still paying Wakeman for the rights to Arthur, so it all feels alright.

Heaton-Harris in for the Conservatives. Looks miserable, but that's a well-known side-effect of being Northern Ireland Secretary, so might not be too indicative...

[Mike88]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

Maybe the bar opened earlier and consolation shots are having an early effect?

When will London results be announced? This evening or in the morning?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786170866180424146?t=riagrlh4nheiSzo9a...

First council result. As suspected,  it's a by election and not a regular council.

[MaxQue]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

Maybe the bar opened earlier and consolation shots are having an early effect?

When will London results be announced? This evening or in the morning?

Saturday late afternoon.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786170866180424146?t=riagrlh4nheiSzo9a...

First council result.

By election hold. This council is not up this year.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786171376727961611

[Torrain]

Reform in second place klaxon - discuss with maps.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786171855604174930

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786171855604174930

big surprise for Reform there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

big surprise for Reform there.

UKIP won the word in 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

The real thing to note is Reform in all 3 Sunderland seats so far coming in second, even though they got near zero local presence.

In regards to Sunderland: I expected 5 Labour gains in Sunderland but maybe there could be even more if the more safe incumbent Tories see their vote halved. But what about the Lib-Dem vote, they are winning wards cause they are not Labour, not cause of Brexit. What happens to their vote? And there actually is a Reform incumbent (defector) here...

The most direct parallel is Hartlepool, where IIRC Reform also have a full slate. If repeated I would not be shocked with a clean Labour sweep now rather than 9ish of 12.

[Torrain]

First gain of the night:
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786174130066235817

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786174831303500222

Labour vote share goes down but they gain