The absentee/early vote thread

[JerryArkansas]

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots

Wow, McDonald is a complete idiot. His post election tweet would be something like this. Trick or treat for republicans. Treat: Trump wins presidency. Trick: There were some votes cast for Clinton. I'm joking, but this tweet for so partisan.

it's a Halloween joke. Standard good news bad news update. Also McDonald is one of the leading sources of early vote information.

It's a troll, don't engage him.

[JerryArkansas]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

College-educated white voters swinging wildly to Dems.

How could you possibly know the above to be true?

The polls, all of them.

[JerryArkansas]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona. 

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.

Yes, TEXAS the state that is literally the home of the 2nd amendment is going to go for Clinton over Trump, especially with a couple supreme court justices being picked from the next president.

Give me a break already, geez, texas is not going D, not this cycle or atleast another few thats for sure but keep tracking the state like it will actually flip, literally hilarious to read the nonsense on here.

2012:

Romney: 4,569,843
Obama: 3,308,124

Over 1.2 million more votes for MITT ROMNEY over a sitting president. But yes shes going to overcome that and win the state, comical.

Just remember that about 1 million people who are Hispanic have registered to vote in Texas since 2012.  And the turnout is already about 40% higher than in 2012.  Texas will be closer.

[JerryArkansas]

Naive question: What (D/R) breakdown can we expect for the ballots sent from Independents

Depends on the State and even then by the age breakdown as well.  Florida is perfect example of this.  Older votes who tend to be white in the NPA are more likely to vote Republican, while younger and POC people are much more likely to vote Democratic.

[JerryArkansas]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

Early voting in Florida was only a week in 2012.  Those numbers are comparing about a day to well over a week.

[JerryArkansas]

Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

They can lose by 5 and still win the state.  I'm not too worried about it.

[JerryArkansas]

are those numbers valid? do all those midwestern states have full early voting?

otherwise i can't understand why the dems should surge in WI and MI. (even absentee-kingdom PA lol)

No, PA has strict absentee voting, while Michigan has excused Absentee, and one of those excuses is being over I think 50.

[JerryArkansas]

I just saw a tweet which made me think about all the worry in Florida with black voters.  Turnout among them is up compared to 2012, however due to huge surge in both whites and Hispanics it isn't showing up in the percentages.