Here is a way you can tell the trend in North Carolina will keep happening, the approval rating of the governor and the state assembly. Both of which are in the toilet. If they had decent approvals, then yes, the state would probably trend rep in 2016, but the rep is doing so bad at state level it will screw anyone running in 2014/16.
This is true at the state level. A valid indicator for how the state will trend is to compare Obama's approval rating in the state to the rest of the country. I haven't seen any signs it's center-left. When we look at the last two elections, Obama beat McCain by less than a point, but won the election by just under 7.5. We see it being roughly 7 points to the right. At the top I just rounded to the nearest point which came out to 6 to the right. Last year, Obama won by 4 nationally, but lost North Carolina by a statistical point, but nearly two points which would put the tar-heel state at about 6 points again or 5 points statistically.
I'm thinking that if these approval ratings stay the same or get worse going into 2016, we could see reverse coattails in the presidential race. Like in 1980 in Arkansas where Frank White pull Reagan over the hump in the state. Reagan only won arkansas by one point while frank won by three. This is exactly what will happen in 2016 North Carolina.
