Slowing Trend in North Carolina

[ElectionsGuy]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176203.0

I did a thread a while ago on this exact same topic. Don't feel bad though, we often repeat ourselves when the political climate is dry. I think its definitely trending democratic, but its still got at least about... say 8 years of leaning republican years.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

What about the "recession" made NC and VA slow down their trends, obviously there were huge trends to the left in 2008, and then mild trends in 2012. There is something special with these states and Obama, so be it the black turnout increase or increasing urban population going in extra hard for him, but he definitely had an appeal that Kerry or Gore didn't have.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

What about the "recession" made NC and VA slow down their trends, obviously there were huge trends to the left in 2008, and then mild trends in 2012. There is something special with these states and Obama, so be it the black turnout increase or increasing urban population going in extra hard for him, but he definitely had an appeal that Kerry or Gore didn't have.

It's their excuses again.

PA- Oh it's fine. Obama just underperformed with whites. (playing the race card)
GA- Oh it's just a few elections away every single time. (only a measly 0.7% trend)
NC- Oh it's only 8 years behind Virginia. (the trend has actually slowed down to 1 freaking point)
VA- Oh it's D.C.'s population moving there. (the GOP just doesn't know how to campaign there yet)
TX- Oh the Latino vote will keep growing. (Latinos tend to be more conservative in TX.)

So you see Democrats are full of excuses to help them forget about the general rule of 8 year alternations.

I agree with these except for VA, the reason D's have been doing good there has been because its a battleground trending democratic, but obviously Cuccinelli, McDonnell, and E.W. Jackson make it easier for the D's to win, so this years gubernatorial election will look like a solid product for the left. I do agree that D.C. population and growth in "NOVA" has trended the state democratic. The republicans can do good there still, but they obviously have to realize that it isn't a red state anymore.

In Texas, not only is the Hispanic population conservative (but trended D), but the white population especially is trending R. Honestly, The D's shouldn't even be talking about this yet until Texas can get below R+15. Right now, its at R+20. Or, it can at least show a decent D trend (like 3 or 4 points).

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

Wasn't the democrat/Obama message through the whole 2012 campaign that the economy is improving/has gotten better? But you're still saying a recession that happened 5 years ago is still affecting the states politics? And that the recession is slowing down the states democratic trend because not enough people are moving or there or there is not enough population growth?

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

Wasn't the democrat/Obama message through the whole 2012 campaign that the economy is improving/has gotten better? But you're still saying a recession that happened 5 years ago is still affecting the states politics? And that the recession is slowing down the states democratic trend because not enough people are moving or there or there is not enough population growth?

You misread what I've written.

The economy has gotten better, but Obama first term started when the economy was collapsing.

Obviously, there were fewer new hirings between the period of late 2008 and late 2012 than between the period of late 2004 and late 2008.

Ohhh, so the recession affected population growth between 2008 and 2012 so therefore the democrats don't get their influx of northerners. Gotcha.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina would have been more democratic in 2008 and 2012 if Obama wasn't running. Sad fact is alot of southern whites that would have voted for the dems didn't because of the color of Obama's skin.

In North Carolina? This isn't the deep south. There probably are a minor group of people who vote against Obama because he is black, but do you think some blacks voted for Obama because the color of his skin? I would say so.

Whites in North Carolina went 73% for Bush, 68% for Romney, 64% for McCain. Obama got >30% both times as where Kerry didn't. If something was race-based, why wouldn't Obama get less white support the first time? Maybe, just maybe, a small portion of whites actually voted against him the second time because of the dislike of his policies and time in office. I don't know, is there any evidence that any other Democrat would've done better in NC?

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina would have been more democratic in 2008 and 2012 if Obama wasn't running. Sad fact is alot of southern whites that would have voted for the dems didn't because of the color of Obama's skin.

In North Carolina? This isn't the deep south. There probably are a minor group of people who vote against Obama because he is black, but do you think some blacks voted for Obama because the color of his skin? I would say so.

Whites in North Carolina went 73% for Bush, 68% for Romney, 64% for McCain. Obama got >30% both times as where Kerry didn't. If something was race-based, why wouldn't Obama get less white support the first time? Maybe, just maybe, a small portion of whites actually voted against him the second time because of the dislike of his policies and time in office. I don't know, is there any evidence that any other Democrat would've done better in NC?

He's talking about southern whites.

A lot of the non-native from the North are also white.

and what kind of population of southern whites are we talking about here? If Obama improved by 5%-9% were those all gains from Northerners? Surely there would have to be more of a gain from northern whites if southern whites voters swung against him because of racism.