Personally, I think the state will become closer because of trends and growth
But I don't think Democrats will win in 2024 or 2028.
The sheer gap is just too much. How do you make up 630,000 votes? Trump won Tennessee by 700,000 votes. No one is realistically trying to flip that state despite Nashville growing so fast
TX has like 30 million people; a 600k gap isn’t that big when you take in context how large the state is. By your logic Trump only won WY by only just over 100k in 2020 so both sides should be taking it seriously.
Between 2016 and 2020 alone, Biden increased his raw vote out of Dallas and Travis counties by ~200k votes.
I mean its possible. Someone in this forum did some math. Even if Texas had a 80% voter turnout, the margins wouldn't have changed that much