For those of you who believe TX will stay a Republican state in the long term, why?

[patzer]

My answer to OP's question is quite simple. If suburban shifts were to continue to the point of TX becoming Dem-leaning, that would also mean Arizona and Georgia being more solidly Dem-leaning, which would mean the GOP having no possible coalition to coming even close to victory presidentially. Which would mean some sort of shift in voter coalitions would have to occur- and it is very difficult to envisage any such coalition which would involve Texas being to the left of the US as a whole.

[patzer]

These things aren’t always 100% correlated and Rs can still make up ground elsewhere

But where, is the question? I can't think of any remotely viable electoral map which would involve Republicans winning sans Texas.

[patzer]

These things aren’t always 100% correlated and Rs can still make up ground elsewhere

But where, is the question? I can't think of any remotely viable electoral map which would involve Republicans winning sans Texas.

For TX to become a swing stage, it doesn’t mean GOP has to have a realistic electoral path without TX. We saw something simillar with Florida during the Obama years - FL was a genuine swing state Presidentially and was basically a must-win for Republicans

I think it's conceivable that TX becomes a swing state that's only slightly Republican-leaning, but I don't think it'll ever actually end up to the left of the nation as a whole in the foreseeable future.