How many Democratic House freshmen are vulnerable in 2008?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

It's a 54-45 Bush district. We won plenty of seats similar to that.

Walz is most likely safe, mostly because the GOP doesn't have much of a bench here. Both the leaders of the GOP Senate and House caucuses live in the district, but both are also extremely unpopular outside of their own seats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

It's a 54-45 Bush district. We won plenty of seats similar to that.

Walz is most likely safe, mostly because the GOP doesn't have much of a bench here. Both the leaders of the GOP Senate and House caucuses live in the district, but both are also extremely unpopular outside of their own seats.

I meant the 6th is too conservative. The 6th gave Bush 57%, which was 10% over his statewide average. Kline is good fit for the district. His military  credentials and moderate to conservative voting record will help him in this GOP leaning district. Bachmann sadly is likely safe in her Distritct too.

You're right Kline would be favored, but a much stronger opponent could've rode the wave to victory (and Kline doesn't have anything moderate at all I could think of).

What you say about the 6th district would probably be true if we were talking about a sane Republican, but Bachmann is not such a Republican. And note that it is less Republican than OH-2.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What about New York? All three won in districts that are still tradtionally Republican.

Arcuri should still be safe (though both him and Gillibrand benefited heavily from looks), but I'm not sure about the others.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Re: FL-16, Negron did manage to largely negate the Foley effect with a good slogan: "Punch Foley for Negron", "punch Foley" makes it sound more like punishing him and was a good way to get past the obstacle of people having to vote for Foley. I agree with Verily, it went Democratic more because it was just an open marginal district in a Democratic year. Mahoney is fairly moderate, so he can very well hang on.

Gillibrand and Hall are both safe unless the GOP picks good nominees. Watch Hall, if he votes like he's from San Fran, he'll be a one termer.

And that's why I worry about, since Hall is extremely liberal.

Poetic justice in NY-19 though, since lots believe that it was Kelly's vote for the Federal Marriage Amendment that did her in and she would've won reelection had she voted against it. It's great to see anti-gay politics finally cost someone a seat.