Which Democrats challenge Harris in 2024?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Biden doesn't run for re-election and Harris runs for 2024 *without* Biden's endorsement (he doesn't want to involve himself in the primary), which Democrats challenge her?

[dw93]

Someone challenges her from the left, but it's more of a Bill Bradleyesque than Sanderseaque in nature, and thus goes nowhere.

[RosettaStoned]

Tulsi Gabbard.

[The Ex-Factor]

With how well Yang and Buttigieg turned out running for the presidency, I'd expect some obscure names we've never heard of to run, as well as random House backbenchers who want some notoriety such as Swalwell and Moulton. Maybe Swalwell will run again.

[NewYorkExpress]

The only person I can think of probably will do it, is eligible and holds office at Representative and above is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (I think she'll run in 2024, if Biden doesn't run).

Stacey Abrams might jump in, if she decides to sit out the Governor's election this year, but she's more likely to run in a situation where both Biden and Harris aren't running.

Other than that...Andrew Yang again (if he wins the New York City Mayoral election, he'll have an excellent platform to run from), more senior Democrats who see 2024 as their last shot at the Presidency. In this category would be Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.

Finally, there are incumbents who are going to lose reelection anyways and have nothing to lose if they run for the Presidency. In this category are Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin and Jon Tester (though I doubt Manchin is running for any office in 2024.).

[Motorcity]

Someone challenges her from the left, but it's more of a Bill Bradleyesque than Sanderseaque in nature, and thus goes nowhere.

Maybe, but everyone said early 2015 that Bernie Sanders was just another Bill Brandley.

Yet Bernie started a movment that now dominants the party and agenda.

Plus Hillary ended up weak in the general election losing to Trump

In theory lots of Democrats should have stayed out in 2020. Biden led all the polls and had stronger general election polls. Yet every Democrat in the party (and their grandmother) ran in 2020. Who wants to miss the chance to be the next Bernie Sanders?

So I expect Harris a serious challenge

[Utah Neolib]

Yang?

[TDAS04]

Elizabeth Warren?

[Nightcore Nationalist]

None (no serious candidate anyway).  The DNC remembers what happened in 2016 and doesn't want a repeat, a primary challenger would just make Harris weaker in the general election.  Plus, unlike Hillary 5 years ago Harris will be the incumbent VP.  The only quasi-serious possible candidate would be Yang.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably none. If Harris is the nominee in 2024, though, I'm quite frankly terrified. She can't run a national campaign to save her life; the 2020 primary showed us that.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Probably none. If Harris is the nominee in 2024, though, I'm quite frankly terrified. She can't run a national campaign to save her life; the 2020 primary showed us that.

Unlike 2020 she's going to have first dibs on nearly any left-leaning campaign staffers she wants.

Whether you trust her to pick the best ones is a different question. But if she or her team will at the very least have the options to do much better than the disaster artists who ran her 2020 race.

[Mr. Morden]

Gore in 2000 was popular enough with the general electorate in the years leading up to his launching his campaign.  And really, so was Clinton leading up to her 2016 campaign.  This is just one pollster, but Gallup's polling of her listed here: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1618/favorability-people-news.aspx shows her only dropping into negative favorability #s in July 2015, by which point it was pretty late for a new primary challenger to jump in, and the Democratic establishment had already committed to her.

So one question about Harris's ability to clear the field is how are her favorability #s among the general electorate faring a year from now, or two years from now?  Because I have to imagine that if Biden to declined to run again, and Harris stepped into the frontrunner role, we'd see a ton of second guessing among Dem. partisans on the "Can she really win?" question if her poll numbers with the general electorate aren't doing so well.

[Alben Barkley]

Someone challenges her from the left, but it's more of a Bill Bradleyesque than Sanderseaque in nature, and thus goes nowhere.

Yet Bernie started a movment that now dominants the party and agenda.

In what world? Almost all the candidates he has endorsed have lost primaries. His “faction” is tiny and he was destroyed twice in presidential primaries. The party may have moved somewhat to the left but not nearly to the extent Bernie wanted it and it probably would have done that anyway.

Plus Hillary ended up weak in the general election losing to Trump

This is in no small part thanks to Bernie’s relentless smear campaign against her that tore the party apart and didn’t end even after he was mathematically eliminated. The party started united behind Hillary, but by the time he was done he had a lot of people convinced Hillary was no better than a Republican, leading them to not vote for her, some even voting for Trump. May not have been his intention but it’s what happened.

So if people want to be the next Bernie, that’s like saying they want to be the next Ralph Nader: someone who ensures a Republican victory.

[Frodo]

Probably none. If Harris is the nominee in 2024, though, I'm quite frankly terrified. She can't run a national campaign to save her life; the 2020 primary showed us that.

Was Joe Biden any better?  And yet look where he is now.  He owes his presidency to Barack Obama and Jim Clyburn.  Without them, he'd either still be in the Senate, or retired by now.    

[Chips]

Someone challenges her from the left, but it's more of a Bill Bradleyesque than Sanderseaque in nature, and thus goes nowhere.

Probably this. I don't see AOC trying until 2032 at the earliest to be honest.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Harris is obviously a weak general election candidate, but that seems to matter little to Democratic primary voters.

[Orser67]

A lot depends on Biden and Harris's standing with both the general public and the primary electorate, but generally speaking sitting vice presidents tend to get at least token opposition. If Harris is unpopular with the base, or if she's otherwise seen as a weak candidate, than Sanders, Warren, Abrams, AOC, Pressley, Sherrod Brown, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and whatever Dems emerge between now and 2024 could run. Otherwise, most or all of the bigger names would probably sit out, and she'd probably face token opposition from people like Gabbard or someone comparable to Martin O'Malley in 2016.

[Epaminondas]

The usual weirdos - even Obama was challenged in 2012 after all.
Nobody of note though, the insurrection and closeness of election have made sure that Democrats will circle the wagons in 2024.

Yet Bernie started a movment that now dominants the party and agenda.

In what world? Almost all the candidates he has endorsed have lost primaries. His “faction” is tiny and he was destroyed twice in presidential primaries. The party may have moved somewhat to the left but not nearly to the extent Bernie wanted it and it probably would have done that anyway.

The oddest part of this retconning is how it fails to explain why Bernie today appears on news networks every other day, while Hilary only gets occasional appearances. Bernie is an old senator from a state nobody cares about. Hilary is a former Democratic nominee, a much more prestigious position.

If the networks are interviewing the wrong person for their viewing numbers, perhaps you ought to inform them.

Bernie’s relentless smear campaign

That old canard. Yes please show us where the Bernie Sanders campaign published ads slandering Hilary, so it feels like he didn't completely scuttle himself by remaining incorrigibly positive.

[SInNYC]

Probably none. If Harris is the nominee in 2024, though, I'm quite frankly terrified. She can't run a national campaign to save her life; the 2020 primary showed us that.

Was Joe Biden any better?  And yet look where he is now.  He owes his presidency to Barack Obama and Jim Clyburn.  Without them, he'd either still be in the Senate, or retired by now.    

Biden won running against a person with incredibly high negatives (though to be fair, also a highly energized base), and in an election with minimal campaigning due to COVID. I doubt he would have won if either of these conditions didn't hold.

Harris will have to win against somebody more than a carnival barker. I guess its too early to tell but we will have to see whether she is more than the proverbial bucket of spit but so far she doesn't seem to be a particularly prominent veep.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

None (no serious candidate anyway).  The DNC remembers what happened in 2016 and doesn't want a repeat, a primary challenger would just make Harris weaker in the general election.  Plus, unlike Hillary 5 years ago Harris will be the incumbent VP.  The only quasi-serious possible candidate would be Yang.

To be honest, if nobody challenged her, nobody would've seen the issues with Hillary as a candidate, and it wouldn't have tested her.

[although admittely the primary had a negative impact on the general, but that's exactly the fault of the DNC and Hillary Clinton, and not of Bernie Sanders. Bernie was still very polite in the primary, like choosing not to attack her on the e-mails.]

I hope she will get challenged, otherwise there's no incentive to ever hold a primary again. Even though i have no real issues with Harris being the candidate in the general election, and me being very likely to "support her". I just hope there will be a challenger, and that candidate who has the guts to get in the race might gain a lot from it (like Yang now likely becoming mayor of NYC, which he couldn't have done without his presidential campaign in 2020, as well as Buttigieg also being a winner for now having a well-known nation-wide political figure with possibilities in the future, althought he might have to carpetbag if he wants to be in office somewhere as Indiana doesn't offer that opportunity.

[Bootes Void]

Gabbard

[LabourJersey]

Probably none. If Harris is the nominee in 2024, though, I'm quite frankly terrified. She can't run a national campaign to save her life; the 2020 primary showed us that.

Was Joe Biden any better?  And yet look where he is now.  He owes his presidency to Barack Obama and Jim Clyburn.  Without them, he'd either still be in the Senate, or retired by now.    

Biden won running against a person with incredibly high negatives (though to be fair, also a highly energized base), and in an election with minimal campaigning due to COVID. I doubt he would have won if either of these conditions didn't hold.

Harris will have to win against somebody more than a carnival barker. I guess its too early to tell but we will have to see whether she is more than the proverbial bucket of spit but so far she doesn't seem to be a particularly prominent veep.

I have to disagree with the idea that she isn't prominent.

In terms of media attention she's absolutely more prominent than pretty much any Veep in recent memory. She was joint Person of Year with Biden (for whatever that's worth) and is certainly more visible than other VPs.

You really think that Gore got more media attention in 1993 than her? or Quayle in '89? The vast majority of VPs are simply not prominent in the media wheras she is, mainly because the Biden campaign elevated her in a unique way during the election and because there's the belief that she is the successor set up for 2024

[wbrocks67]

Probably none. If Harris is the nominee in 2024, though, I'm quite frankly terrified. She can't run a national campaign to save her life; the 2020 primary showed us that.

why would you base her 2024 campaign off a 2019 primary versus 4 years as a VP on the trail? like what??? the way people here constantly go back to her primary campaign is mind boggling

[Xing]

If Biden doesn't run, and there are no massive scandals, the nomination is Harris's, and she'd probably beat any challengers in a near 50-state romp. Democrats tend to choose the "next in line" much more than Republicans in primaries, and since the vast majority of Democrats like Harris (this site is not representative), they'd see little reason to back anyone else. Whether she'd run a smarter campaign this time around and address her potentials weaknesses for the GE is another story, of course.

[Heir of Camelot]

I'm not confident Harris could beat Trump. I really hope its Biden.