Ancestry and political attitudes

[traininthedistance]

In other words, he would be rather working-class than middle-class, and as such quite likely to be a staunch democrat (until when? Wilson entering WWI against Germany? Hoover/ Eisenhower, American Germans both becoming US Presidents on a Republican ticket? Post-Kennedy / Civil Rights party realignment in the US?).

The party realignment dodn't occur over civil rights, it wasn't until 1980 that the South became strongly Republican and not until 1992 that the Dems' current areas or strength started consistently voting that way.

The South was Goldwater's best region in 1964, and it's almost impossible to argue that wasn't because of his opposition to the Civil Rights Act.  (Even if his opposition was more principled than your average Southerner's.)  At a presidential level, 1964 is in fact the signal turning point, with Carter being an aberration which can be attributed to his blatantly evangelical campaign.  Obviously, local elections were a lagging indicator, and took longer to switch.

It would be most accurate that the realignment took a very long time, as it started all the way back with Al Smith and took until the 1994 midterms to really resolve itself. 

[traininthedistance]

WND and National Review?  Nice unbiased, intellectually honest sources you got there.

1980 had Carter at the top of the ticket (as well as John Anderson to slow the flight of moderate northerners to the Democratic Party, in a counterpoint to Wallace), and as I already mentioned, he ran the most Southern and evangelical candidacy probably ever.  Any other Dem candidate, and the patterns would likely have emerged eight years sooner- and they already had started emerging in the Northeast, he mainly just held onto the South at the expense of not taking the West Coast.

And, of course, the Southern Strategy is undisputed fact.

[traininthedistance]

In other words, he would be rather working-class than middle-class, and as such quite likely to be a staunch democrat (until when? Wilson entering WWI against Germany? Hoover/ Eisenhower, American Germans both becoming US Presidents on a Republican ticket? Post-Kennedy / Civil Rights party realignment in the US?).

The party realignment dodn't occur over civil rights, it wasn't until 1980 that the South became strongly Republican and not until 1992 that the Dems' current areas or strength started consistently voting that way.

It would be most accurate that the realignment took a very long time, as it started all the way back with Al Smith and took until the 1994 midterms to really resolve itself.  

Interesting - I was not aware of Al Smith, but after reading the Wikipedia article on him, I can imagine that, with his opposition to the "New deal",  he might have been quite instrumental in gradually turning away small-town / rural catholics outside the Deep South (and these would have mostly been of German, Polish or Irish ancestry) away from the democrats.

Al Smith's opposition to the New Deal was less a matter of ideology and more a personal beef with FDR.  He felt slighted that he didn't get the nomination in 1932, and that FDR snubbed him after the election.  So he became embittered afterwards- with reasonable cause, but unreasonable results.