Predict how SCOTUS rules on gay marriage

[Blue3]

Fortunately, JCL, you're a member of an increasingly small minority.

I'm fairly certain that heterosexuals are likely to remain the majority for some time to come.  Tho I am reminded of some dystopian SF novels of the 60s and 70s that offered up a future in which governments promoted homosexuality as a method of birth control.

He wasn't talking about heterosexuals, but people who oppose gay marriage.

And it's very likely that the relevant part of DOMA will be struck down.

[Blue3]

If the SCOTUS actually cared about the Constitution they would look up the 14th amendment and how it applies to ALL US STATES just like how when the SCOTUS ruled bans on interracial marriage unconstitutional in 1967 in Loving v Virginia.

Except Scalia says the 14th amendment's equal protection clause is only about race, not sex.

Technically, he's right. That's what the Equal Rights Amendment would have done.

[Blue3]

So it seems that people are expecting that the part of DOMA that deals with federal recognition of same sex marriages to be struck down, while the part that deals with states recognizing out of state marriages to be retained. There's definitely a state's rights argument there, but "state's rights" is normally only used to help conservatives.

It's a little less sure whether Prop. 8 will be struck down, but most are assuming that it will. Obviously that is not "state's rights", even though the state as a whole wouldn't mind that they wouldn't have to wait until November 2014 to legalize it by initiative.

That's because only the provision dealing with federal recognition is up for debate in this case. The Supreme Court isn't allowed to rule on the other DOMA provision, on recognition by other states. It's only the federal part that's up for debate in this ruling.

[Blue3]

It is as I thought. Legal again in California, and DOMA struck down.

And when gay marriage does come before the Supreme Court, this new standard/precedent makes it very likely to legalize it nationwide.