2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[lfromnj]

MN-02 seems like it would be an easy flip for the GOP. Biden +7.2, but Craig underperformed Biden significantly, as did other MSP suburban Democrats. In a wave environment, that's tossup at minimum.

Some of the underperformance was definitely 3rd party vote share which we need to wait on.

[GALeftist]

Thank you, Minnesota Grassroots Party, very cool.

[Roll Roons]

MN-02 seems like it would be an easy flip for the GOP. Biden +7.2, but Craig underperformed Biden significantly, as did other MSP suburban Democrats. In a wave environment, that's tossup at minimum.

TBF, I think Craig's margin was lower than it should have been because there was a Weed Party candidate on the ballot. But yeah, MN-02 is definitely a tossup this year.

[ElectionsGuy]

Angie Craig needed a better district. She won by a little more than 2 in 2020 with a very similar district, so she is very vulnerable. Not at all secure.

[lfromnj]

Thank you, Minnesota Grassroots Party, very cool.

I actually wonder what happens if Democrats picked up the state senate. Iron Range state senators switched to independent because they were salty over the suburban Democratic senate "power grab"

[kwabbit]

MN-02 seems like it would be an easy flip for the GOP. Biden +7.2, but Craig underperformed Biden significantly, as did other MSP suburban Democrats. In a wave environment, that's tossup at minimum.

TBF, I think Craig's margin was lower than it should have been because there was a Weed Party candidate on the ballot. But yeah, MN-02 is definitely a tossup this year.

Is the Legal Marijuana Now Party going to continue to be on the ballot? Their candidate for MN-02 actually died before the election in 2020, but still got 5.8%.

[Nyvin]

It's a good map for Republicans.   I've never seen anyone draw MN-2 in that manner, that's definitely unique.

[lfromnj]

Oh MN08 did become a decent bit more D . Moves to Trump +11 from +15

[Minnesota Mike]

Dems would probably have won MN-01 in 2018 with this map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Like CT this means MN will have basically had the same map for 30 years

[Roll Roons]

Dems would probably have won MN-01 in 2018 with this map.

Possibly even 2020. Hagedorn is an incredibly weak incumbent but the Weed Party saved him.

This map also confirms that MN-03 will not be coming back to the GOP for the foreseeable future.

[Nyvin]

It's almost like the court prioritized keeping the partisan balance of the districts the same.  Obviously that's impossible everywhere with the Twin Cities growing so much faster than the rest of the state, but they really didn't shift any districts meaningfully in either direction.  MN-1 shift 1 point, MN-2 didn't really move much at all, and MN-6 moved only about 3 points left.

If they took a different approach they could've had a bigger impact on partisanship but kinda avoided that IMO.

[lfromnj]

State legislative maps had some changes. Dems got a fairly good deal from Rochester finally getting that safe seat but the 2nd seat is still very competitive albiet a few points more R.  Iron Range looks somewhat weird and R friendly, Trump wins every senate seat there outside of Duluth.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's almost like the court prioritized keeping the partisan balance of the districts the same.  Obviously that's impossible everywhere with the Twin Cities growing so much faster than the rest of the state, but they really didn't shift any districts meaningfully in either direction.  MN-1 shift 1 point, MN-2 didn't really move much at all, and MN-6 moved only about 3 points left.

If they took a different approach they could've had a bigger impact on partisanship but kinda avoided that IMO.

It’s def a least change. Kinda hoping they’d prioritize partisan fairness as geography isn’t not good for Dems in MN but it is what it is, and despite its partisan problems it’s a good map. Along with CO and AZ, this is one of the underwhelming maps for Dems this cycle

[lfromnj]

It's almost like the court prioritized keeping the partisan balance of the districts the same.  Obviously that's impossible everywhere with the Twin Cities growing so much faster than the rest of the state, but they really didn't shift any districts meaningfully in either direction.  MN-1 shift 1 point, MN-2 didn't really move much at all, and MN-6 moved only about 3 points left.

If they took a different approach they could've had a bigger impact on partisanship but kinda avoided that IMO.

It’s def a least change. Kinda hoping they’d prioritize partisan fairness as geography isn’t not good for Dems in MN but it is what it is, and despite its partisan problems it’s a good map. Along with CO and AZ, this is one of the underwhelming maps for Dems this cycle

Colorado isn't underwhelming other than mean median which isn't as big of an issue in CO because its Biden +14 vs Biden +7 here. Overall just means Rs have a small shot at Perlmutters seat for a rental in 2022. Other than that CO08 is better for Dems early in the decade but won't have any extreme trends.  Democrats can take that as they wish.CO03 was a self own by selfish Democrats but by PVI its pretty much the same just a few points more R on biden numbers. Colorado is just a pretty meh map due to too many special interest groups.

[Mr.Phips]

State legislative maps had some changes. Dems got a fairly good deal from Rochester finally getting that safe seat but the 2nd seat is still very competitive albiet a few points more R.  Iron Range looks somewhat weird and R friendly, Trump wins every senate seat there outside of Duluth.

How many Duluth districts are there?  Just one?

[BoiseBoy]

Looking at the legislative maps, Biden won 36/67 senate seats (53.7%) and 77/134 house seats (57.5%).

[lfromnj]

State legislative maps had some changes. Dems got a fairly good deal from Rochester finally getting that safe seat but the 2nd seat is still very competitive albiet a few points more R.  Iron Range looks somewhat weird and R friendly, Trump wins every senate seat there outside of Duluth.

How many Duluth districts are there?  Just one?

Yes just one duluth senate district. IIRC Biden actually had the highest vote share for any Democrat in Duluth for decades.  The swingier state senate district is only Trump +30 votes FYI.

[lfromnj]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

[lfromnj]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

[Minnesota Mike]

Looking at the legislative maps, Biden won 36/67 senate seats (53.7%) and 77/134 house seats (57.5%).

Still processing the legislative districts but one thing that jumped out to me is the Rochester area. There were 2 Republican held Biden senate seats, one moved way left and the other right so now there is one safe D and one likely R. Democrats also likely gain a house seat in Rochester.

[lfromnj]

Ah also I found out why the GOP proposal was so bold, it basically followed the 2001 to 2011 map. Reminder that at least the inner part of the Minneapolis metro grew pretty slowly this decade so the population distribution isn't that far off from 2001.

[lfromnj]

Wow
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1493665853266710530?cxt=HHwWhMC-0cDLyLopAAAA

MN02 actually flips to a Romney seat in 2012.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1493665853266710530?cxt=HHwWhMC-0cDLyLopAAAA

MN02 actually flips to a Romney seat in 2012.

Flashback to when MN-01 and MN-08 were better for Dems than MN-02 and MN-03.