Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Comrade Funk]

Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.

CNN's coverage is so anti-Moore, it's not even funny.  And, FOX isn't covering it, so I don't know what to watch.

NAMBLA news network

[Comrade Funk]

#BoycottAlabama

[Comrade Funk]

But my projections said Moore would win....

Get ed Moore

[Comrade Funk]

Calling it for Moore.

Moore has won this.

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My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the percentage total number of votes counted*100. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election last year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.

New meme

[Comrade Funk]