New Tradesports rankings

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I know McCain no longer has any shot...but I'm sort of tempted...if he shows any sort of resurgence, the man could easily shoot back up to the 10-range.

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Gore crashing, as said, other stocks up in rough proportion to their poll standings:

Clinton: 73.8  [Lifetime high]
Obama: 12.9
Gore: 5.1
Edwards: 4.5
Richardson: 0.8
Biden: 0.4
Dodd: 0.3

Giuliani: 40.6
Romney: 25.8
Thompson: 16.1
Paul: 7.4
McCain: 6.7
Huckabee: 3.1
Rice: 2.0
Gingrich: 0.3

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Probably the first sane ordering of the candidates (of both parties) in quite a while.  Although some of the numbers are off (Huckabee is still well underpriced, for example), the cardinal ranking is, for once, spot on.

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There was a (very) brief spike in Huck's numbers for a minute or two.  It's calmed back down to 22.4--which is still ahead of Romney at 21.0

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I was strongly considering buying some McCain when he was at around 4.5 a few months back...shame I didn't.

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The McCain boom-let is unreal.  Latest GOP nomination market numbers:

Giuliani 36.4
Romney 22.4
Huckabee 15.5
McCain 11.9

That's a remarkably narrow gap between Huckabee and McCain.

The only way McCain wins is if he wins NH...and are his chances really even that good at winning NH?

/continues to kick self for not buying McCain in September

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Giuliani 28.4
Romney 25.8
McCain 16.9
Huckabee 14.7
Paul 7.2
Thompson 4.0

Clinton 63.0
Obama 29.4
Edwards 5.5
Gore 2.6

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Yup. I'd say McCain stock collapses after New Hampshire.

Unless, of course, he wins NH.

But he's still overvalued at the moment--he's got no better than a 1 in 3 shot at NH (at best), and he's by no means the favorite should he win NH--and, should he lose NH, he has no chance at the nomination.

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This week is the first time Giuliani's below 20 since early February 2007.

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Current top contenders for the VP nominees, according to Intrade:

Obama 16.0
Gore 12.4
Bayh 11.1
Richardson 10.0
Edwards 9.0

Huckabee 24.9
Thompson 10.1
Pawlenty 7.7
McCain 7.6
Romney 5.1

Intrade has never seemed to be very good with the VP odds, IMHO.

With a couple of exceptions, the volume's light, so we shouldn't expect it to have cleared.

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Just remember, I'm the guy who suggested you buy McCain at 48.

I'm the guy who suggested you buy McCain at 5 .  Did I follow my own advice?  Noooo...

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Hmm... MSNBC is realeasing some exit poll numbers:

Most important issue...

Economy: 45%
Iraq: 29%
Healthcare: 18%

It looks like Iraq is making something of a comeback.

Is that so atypical (amongst Democrats)?

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Intraders have very little faith in Clinton.  Dem. nomination:

Obama 71.0
Clinton 29.2

That's excessive.  It'll only get worse after she loses tomorrow (yay irrational markets), so hold off on buying Clinton until Wednesday at least.