New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

It's a *possibility*....but way less than a 22.7% chance of it happening, IMHO.  Right now, McCain has about a 10 point national lead.  If all the Feb. 5th primaries were held today, I have little doubt that McCain would sweep most of the primaries, and become the de facto nominee (just as Giuliani would have if those primaries were held two months ago).  Now, maybe after MI, SC, NV, and FL, someone else will be the national frontrunner, but I think the chances are pretty high that *someone* will do well enough on Feb. 5th to be declared, if not de facto nominee, then at least "the winner of Super Tuesday", which gives them a critical mass of momentum, allowing them to win virtually every subsequent primary.  Hard to see how nobody gets a majority of delegates by June.  It's *possible*, but highly unlikely, IMHO.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

[Sam Spade]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

Interesting comment, since Romney's chances of winning the nomination are pretty much nil (maybe higher than Thompson's)

[Mr. Morden]

Also, how exactly is a brokered convention defined?  If, for example, the primaries themselves don't resolve things, but a deal is worked out in advance of the convention that prevents things from ever getting to a second ballot, is it still brokered or not?  I think if the primaries conclude, and no one has a majority of delegates, there would be tremendous pressure to work out a deal before the convention actually occurs.  In the old days, it was expected that things wouldn't be resolved until the convention, but now that the conventions are used as 4-day commercials, the party elders would push hard for the dealmaking to happen before the convention, so that there wouldn't be too much discord shown on people's TV screens.

[J. J.]

I'm playing a hunch, but I would buy Romney at this point.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

Interesting comment, since Romney's chances of winning the nomination are pretty much nil (maybe higher than Thompson's)

An essential component to any successful argument is a well-warranted assertion.
Here are the  justifications for my sanguine view of Romney's candidacy.


Important points to consider:

1. Romney's lead in recent Michigan polls is growing.
2. Romney is polling relatively well in SC and could spoil McCain's chances there.
3. Romney is the only Republican to have waged a competitive campaign in all of the first three primary or caucus states.
4. Romney's vast personal resources give him a cash spigot that can be turned on at will. This will be a huge advantage as the campaign drags into February.
5. If Romney bests McCain in Michigan and topples Giuliani in Florida, Romney will once again become the de facto GOP establishment pick.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I put the odds of him winning the nomination at 45%.

[Sam Spade]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

Interesting comment, since Romney's chances of winning the nomination are pretty much nil (maybe higher than Thompson's)

An essential component to any successful argument is a well-warranted assertion.
Here are the  justifications for my sanguine view of Romney's candidacy.


Important points to consider:

1. Romney's lead in recent Michigan polls is growing.
2. Romney is polling relatively well in SC and could spoil McCain's chances there.
3. Romney is the only Republican to have waged a competitive campaign in all of the first three primary or caucus states.
4. Romney's vast personal resources give him a cash spigot that can be turned on at will. This will be a huge advantage as the campaign drags into February.
5. If Romney bests McCain in Michigan and topples Giuliani in Florida, Romney will once again become the de facto GOP establishment pick.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I put the odds of him winning the nomination at 45%.

Romney's relentless use of the cash spigot for a year hasn't got him above his top of 20% nationally and 30% in most states (sans Utah/Idaho).  What is going to change this? 

And how is Romney going to win when the race narrows down?  The Evangelicals supporting Huckabee aren't going to support him over McCain (or interestingly enough, probably Giuliani).  The McCain and Giuliani moderates and Indys may support him over Huckabee, but I can guarantee you that either McCain or Giuliani will get out, but not both of them.  Romney isn't going to be the pick from any "brokered convention" - the other candidates hate his guts.

Moreover, out of all of the candidates running, Romney clearly has the most GOP establishment support of all of them.  How much GOP establishment support, in the end, is going to go to a candidate who is getting slaughtered in the general election.

Personally, I now think Romney will win Michigan narrowly (since Dick Morris says that McCain will), but I don't really see how a narrow win is going to change the dynamic presently going on.  Moreover, Romney is not going to be a major factor in South Carolina IMHO - and a divided South Carolina primary actually works to McCain's favor above any other candidate (like a divided primary in most states should work to Romney's favor.

That's my thoughts.  Although, if you believe Romney is going to win Michigan, I would buy today and sell Thursday.  There should be some movement there.

[Torie]

Romney has made a lot of enemies. He once was my second choice, but his shameless pandering estranged me. I just can't take it.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

Interesting comment, since Romney's chances of winning the nomination are pretty much nil (maybe higher than Thompson's)

An essential component to any successful argument is a well-warranted assertion.
Here are the  justifications for my sanguine view of Romney's candidacy.


Important points to consider:

1. Romney's lead in recent Michigan polls is growing.
2. Romney is polling relatively well in SC and could spoil McCain's chances there.
3. Romney is the only Republican to have waged a competitive campaign in all of the first three primary or caucus states.
4. Romney's vast personal resources give him a cash spigot that can be turned on at will. This will be a huge advantage as the campaign drags into February.
5. If Romney bests McCain in Michigan and topples Giuliani in Florida, Romney will once again become the de facto GOP establishment pick.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I put the odds of him winning the nomination at 45%.

Romney's relentless use of the cash spigot for a year hasn't got him above his top of 20% nationally and 30% in most states (sans Utah/Idaho).  What is going to change this? 

And how is Romney going to win when the race narrows down?  The Evangelicals supporting Huckabee aren't going to support him over McCain (or interestingly enough, probably Giuliani).  The McCain and Giuliani moderates and Indys may support him over Huckabee, but I can guarantee you that either McCain or Giuliani will get out, but not both of them.  Romney isn't going to be the pick from any "brokered convention" - the other candidates hate his guts.

Moreover, out of all of the candidates running, Romney clearly has the most GOP establishment support of all of them.  How much GOP establishment support, in the end, is going to go to a candidate who is getting slaughtered in the general election.

Personally, I now think Romney will win Michigan narrowly (since Dick Morris says that McCain will), but I don't really see how a narrow win is going to change the dynamic presently going on.  Moreover, Romney is not going to be a major factor in South Carolina IMHO - and a divided South Carolina primary actually works to McCain's favor above any other candidate (like a divided primary in most states should work to Romney's favor.

That's my thoughts.  Although, if you believe Romney is going to win Michigan, I would buy today and sell Thursday.  There should be some movement there.

Excellent points. If the race narrows down to Romney and Huckabee, Romney wins. Wouldn't you agree that Romney will be more viable than McCain on Feb. 5th if he wins in MI and FL?

The Romney route to victory:

Win Michigan.
Finish respectably in South Carolina. Make sure Huckabee beats McCain.
Beat Rudy in Florida
Hope a broke, dejected Rudy plummets in the polls.
Use the Florida bounce as a way to reintroduce himself to voters as a competent leader.
Win most of the big states on Feb. 5th

His path to victory is probably the second smoothest to the nomination, behind only that of John McCain. If he doesn't win in Florida, however, all is for naught.

[Torie]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

[Хahar 🤔]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

Too many losses for a Plan B now.

[Verily]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

Too many losses for a Plan B now.

Not strictly true. If he wins by a relatively large margin tomorrow (>4 points), he could conceivably regain ground in South Carolina with the new media push, win there and in Nevada, and go into Florida, Hawaii and Maine quite strong. It's not likely, but it's very possible.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

A win in Michigan and Nevada + a strong showing in South Carolina= good chance for victory in Florida. Romney will benefit from the clusters of wealthy Republicans in Florida. If he can showcase his strong leadership qualities in the public and private sectors, he should be able to pick up some more moderate suburbanites, too.

[Torie]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

A win in Michigan and Nevada + a strong showing in South Carolina= good chance for victory in Florida. Romney will benefit from the clusters of wealthy Republicans in Florida. If he can showcase his strong leadership qualities in the public and private sectors, he should be able to pick up some more moderate suburbanites, too.

Rudy is in his way. Florida is one place where Rudy's base is not going anywhere. And the Rudy voters and the Romney voters tend to come from the same socio-economic groups, albeit with some Salsa in Florida flavored in.

[Jake]

I'm playing a hunch, but I would buy Romney at this point.

Yeah. He has a good chance to win Michigan and will get a mild bounce that you can make money off in the next few days.

[MarkWarner08]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

A win in Michigan and Nevada + a strong showing in South Carolina= good chance for victory in Florida. Romney will benefit from the clusters of wealthy Republicans in Florida. If he can showcase his strong leadership qualities in the public and private sectors, he should be able to pick up some more moderate suburbanites, too.

Rudy is in his way. Florida is one place where Rudy's base is not going anywhere. And the Rudy voters and the Romney voters tend to come from the same socio-economic groups, albeit with some Salsa in Florida flavored in.

I tend to agree with your point -- I even wrote a piece last night focusing on the effect of  a Rudy Florida bounce --  but I've also noticed Rudy's numbers in Florida have been either stagnant or falling, despite his massive ad buys. Rudy already trails in some FL polls and this deficit would be further deepened by a resurgent Romney candidacy.

We both agree that it's too early to count out either Romney or Rudy.

[Torie]

The latest suveyusa Florida poll showed an uptick for Rudy. He is close to McCain, with a gap between him and the rest to become the un-McCain in Florida. He needs to keep that going.

[J. J.]

I'm playing a hunch, but I would buy Romney at this point.

Yeah. He has a good chance to win Michigan and will get a mild bounce that you can make money off in the next few days.

Bingo, then sell short and buy McCain would be my guess.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't know.  A Romney win in Michigan is too easily written off as a product of his family ties there, or further written off on an organized Democratic effort to pick him as the weakest candidate.  He'd have to absolutely decimate expectations to get his way back into contention.

[jimrtex]

Also, how exactly is a brokered convention defined?

The contract defines it as no nominee after the first ballot.  There is also a warning about "unforseen circusmstances".   So what happens if one candidate is just short of a majority, and the others are far short.  There is little likelihood of all the trailers coalescing on a single candidate, or a dark horse emerging, so you let everyone make a speech, and vote, and then you get delegations changing votes during the roll call.  It could mean either no "brokered convention" of a cancelled wager.

On the other hand, if one candidate has a majority, there is little likelihood of a cancelled wager.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain is dropping hard now, and Romney is surging (perhaps because reports of light turnout in MI has people thinking Romney will win there?):

McCain 37.0
Giuliani 20.0
Romney 17.8
Huckabee 11.9
Thompson 3.1

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain is dropping hard now, and Romney is surging (perhaps because reports of light turnout in MI has people thinking Romney will win there?):

McCain 37.0
Giuliani 20.0
Romney 17.8
Huckabee 11.9
Thompson 3.1

Huckabee's tumbled too.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton gains at Obama's expense and solidifies her front-runner status.

Romney has a decent gain at McCain's expense.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 59.3
Obama 38.0
Edwards 2.0
Gore 1.2
Richardson 0.1


REPUBLICANS
McCain 40.0
Giuliani 20.2
Romney 17.7
Huckabee 12.7
Thompson 3.1
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4
Bloomberg 0.2

Michigan
Romney 65.0
McCain 35.0
Huckabee 3.6 (Field)

[Eraserhead]

If McCain wins tonight (big if), I would say he's a safer bet than Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

Ouch for McCain:

McCain 32.0
Giuliani 21.6
Romney 18.9
Huckabee 13.8
Thompson 3.5